Does it Matter who forms next Gov't?

[Tree]

No.

[ValueSleuth]

No.

I will argue the opposite, with caveats.

For instance, Gulf Provincial MP Kavo is a member of the PNC Party.  If party politics means anything, it can certainly be an advantage to have as many Gulf Province MPs as members of the governing coalition as possible.

Any governing coalition that includes the United Resources Party, whose leader is William Duma, may well be strongly influenced by current DPE Minister Duma.  That would be strictly bad news.

InterOil executives put a happy face on their situation, stating that they can get along with any government as they have in the past.  While that has been the case, the stakes are clearly higher now and if any individual minister, as William Duma has done so far, imposes his personal will -- as a result of financial or other incentives -- it would be detrimental to InterOil's interests.

If all this didn't matter to InterOil, why would all the oil/gas companies be lining up to get rid of William Duma and/or his United Resources Party compatriots?

The form and substance of the PNG government will matter, but in ways that may not be readily evident and/or starky demonstrable -- unless Duma remains DPE Minister.  Then, it will be obvious that InterOil's interests will remain directly harmed by the government.

If O'Neill forms the new government and carries forward his reformist stance, a lot of things could well be better for the PNG people and InterOil. On the other hand, would anybody really welcome the leadership of Belden Namah as PM?  He's a real wild card.

So, I firmly believe it DOES matter who forms the next PNG government.

VS

[admin]

Well, Value, I'm not saying there is no risk there, but if it was a serious risk, I can't somehow imagine Chandler buying 15% of the company. He could just as well have waited for the election outcome, and he's likely to be better informed about it than any of us.

If one assumes that Duma is entirely motivated by letting Shell have some of IOC's assets on the cheap than, yes, there is a danger. However, I'm not so sure about that. Chandler would have known that and wait for the election result to make sure.

It's also possible Duma was simply fed up with IOC not making more progress, and that could have been triggered by lack of financing for EWC and/or Flex because of lack of bankable offtakes.

If the latter is the case, then we have little to worry about, politically (as long as there is no Chavista emerging), and that is consistent with Chandler buying so much BEFORE the election result

[Palm]

I'll kind of hedge in between this as I think it will come down to either an O'Neill PM with Polye on board with a major role or the opposite. The idea of Namah being PM is probably pretty much a very slim chance. So the question is more what power would Duma have under either O'Neill or Polye? I think he will have much less power/influence and either not be DPE Minister, or will be Minister but with less individual power. His power down the stretch was mainly due to the coming elections IMHO. He was a threat to make a run at PM, and made a lot of noise. In the end his party is doing so-so in the elections and he has much less influence now. So his appointment would come with some strong strings attached; cooperate or you will be replaced. He also was more of a threat with all of the Supreme Court activity going on. I actually am starting to think that a Polye PM with O'Neill as DPM could be a very good thing. O'Neill might agree to this in exchange for Polye dropping all talk of the Somare-led return to prosecution talks. Polye is very respected and is part of the young up-and-coming generation. O'Neill would lend great diplomatic ties and if Polye agrees to the education, health and infrastructure policies that are very popular O'Neill platforms, it could be a great thing for PNG overall and would be seen as a stable administration. Namah could be kept at bay by being the military/police head.

Will be very interesting week or so.

[Tree]

IOC will soon deliver a bullet-proof project proposal to PNG. That proposal will meet all requirements of 2009 PA and will include the winner of a competitive bid process (read expensive). That winner will almost certainly be XOM, RDS, JKM, CVX, or and equally qualified Major. Likely some of the losing bidders will take project stakes, that is common. IOC will have the weight of SMs/NOCs and as SM's and NOC's are not afraid of Duma as they continue to invest in PNG. As reported, Duma's scheming or ineptness has cost PNG LNG a billion in costs resulting delays, that alone is why XOM would campaign against Duma.
Expropriation is the threat to IOC and with SM/NOC cover does anyone think that possible? And if that's possible for IOC, then XOM/TLM/OSH are at equal risk. Does anyone think this possible? Namah and Duma combined couldn't pull that off.

[ValueSleuth]

IOC will soon deliver a bullet-proof project proposal to PNG. That proposal will meet all requirements of 2009 PA and will include the winner of a competitive bid process (read expensive). That winner will almost certainly be XOM, RDS, JKM, CVX, or and equally qualified Major. Likely some of the losing bidders will take project stakes, that is common. IOC will have the weight of SMs/NOCs and as SM's and NOC's are not afraid of Duma as they continue to invest in PNG. As reported, Duma's scheming or ineptness has cost PNG LNG a billion in costs resulting delays, that alone is why XOM would campaign against Duma. Expropriation is the threat to IOC and with SM/NOC cover does anyone think that possible? And if that's possible for IOC, then XOM/TLM/OSH are at equal risk. Does anyone think this possible? Namah and Duma combined couldn't pull that off.

When 3rd world governments are involved, there is no such thing as a "bullet-proof" project proposal.

You note that Duma's "activities" have cost the PNG LNG over $1 billion in extras.  Enough said as to the lack of "bullet-proofness" in PNG.

VS

[Tree]

A Bullet-Proof Proposal is one which meets legal requirements within. 3rd world governments are almost always involved in energy development and projects still get done. SM's/NOCs even deal with the KGB of all things and still deliver profitable projects. I'd imagine Shell isn't the only SM that knows which palms to grease when required in a Commonwealth nation. The Queen, the Aussies and the rest of the free world donor nations will have an interest in ensuring that PNG lives up to their legal obligations in the 2009 PA. Once again, expropriation is the only recipe for failure, not which politician with his hand out wins an election or is appointed to a Minister position.