FYI FWIW. My contacts in academia say that freshman enrollment this Fall in a mandatory introductory PETE course for future petroleum engineers is down 90% from its peak of a few years ago. This is happening everywhere. This is exactly what I expected and predicted as it has happened before. I further suspect some PETE programs at some universities will be ended because they are not sustainable.
This began not long after the downturn. My own recent PETE graduate child who is still unemployed, will recieve a BS in civil engineering in December. Able to kiss oil and gas goodbye for good. Fall interviews are in progress and major oil companies still are not looking for PETE graduates. I'm sure it's the same for geologists and geophysicists.
The industry continually gets more efficient at finding, developing and producing more and more oil and gas with fewer and fewer people. This latest downturn only further accelerates that continung improvement. So that will help prolong the glut.
Of the two variables enabling oil supply - investment and availability of people who can do the work, the second of these is going to start having an impact soon. Projects will move slower and some won't get out of the gate due to lack of people. Salaries for the right trained/experienced/skilled people may skyrocket into a bidding war. Delayed projects means eventually, supply will fall and maybe plummet. You can't cram a 4-5 year college education into 1 year. And experience comes by doing the work.
Can US shale close or delay the coming supply shortage? Maybe if they can get the people. Something has to give eventually. Maybe Elon Musk? I wouldn't bet on it. But who knows?