Somare and O'Neill to negotiate a settlement?

[Palm]

This is getting more bizarre by the hour. They now are discussing possibility of a negotiated settlement. The good thing is it appears there will be little violence.
"UPDATE 4-PNG's tale of two prime ministers left unresolved
Tue Dec 13, 2011 3:55am EST
SHARE THIS ARTICLE
Email
Facebook
Twitter
* PNG awakes to two PMs, one in parliament, one in a hotel

* Governor-General office says must be negotiated settlement

* Port Moresby calm, despite tense standoff

* Resource sector seen immune to political crisis

PORT MORESBY, Dec 13 (Reuters) - Papua New Guinea's governor-general decided on Tuesday that the two men claiming to be the resource-rich country's prime minister must negotiate a solution, leaving a tense political deadlock unresolved.

The impasse prompted police to call for calm in the capital, Port Moresby, which has a reputation for street violence. Parts of the city are ruled by "raskol" criminal gangs.

Heavily armed police protected Government House on Tuesday, but elsewhere in the city life went on as usual. Packed buses took commuters to and from work and crowded vegetable markets operated as normal. Talk-back radio and internet chatrooms, however, were preoccupied with the political crisis.

PNG's Supreme Court ruled on Monday that Sir Michael Somare, who was toppled while overseas receiving treatment for a heart ailment, should be reinstated immediately.

But Peter O'Neill, who replaced Somare and is recognised by parliament as the legitimate prime minister, has rejected the court ruling and refuses to step down.

"As parliament spoke today I am the prime minister of this country and Somare is trying to hijack it with some hooligan policemen," said O'Neill after barging through a police barricade to see the governor-general late on Tuesday.

Governor-General Michael Ogio was going to swear Somare in on Tuesday but, after talking with O'Neill at Government House, decided to meet with Somare on Wednesday and order the two men to negotiate a settlement, said the governor-general's office.

"He has decided to hear both sides of the story and will get both parties to sit down and negotiate," Ogio's media officer said.

The reinstatement of Somare is seen by residents and business leaders in Port Moresby as the most likely way to resolve the stand-off and is unlikely to inflame the situation.

"We are not expecting any trouble," said one PNG businessman. "The army, police and people seem to have accepted the court's ruling as the legal answer to the stalemate."

Neither Somare nor O'Neill has enough support to mobilise widespread or violent street protests.

Somare's supporters argue the court ruling that the O'Neill government was illegal automatically overturns any action taken by it since Somare was toppled.

"There are heightened political tensions within Port Moresby with two, as it were, alternative prime ministers. This is unknown terrain in Papua New Guinea," Australian Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd earlier in the day.

"We don't want to see blood on the streets. We heard some gunshots last night," he told Australian media.

"THE CHIEF"

The ailing Somare, 75, said before the judgment that he was willing to govern the country. However, Somare's party has suffered mass defections and is now in a minority in parliament.

Talkback radio callers generally supported the court ruling, with some saying Somare should be allowed to rule even if he has only minority support in parliament because elections are only six months away in June 2012.

PNG's longest-serving prime minister, affectionately known as "the Chief" after leading the country to independence in 1973, Somare has left open the question of whether he would run at the next elections.

PNG, a country where the majority of people live subsistence lives despite its abundant mineral wealth, has a turbulent history and corruption is rife.

A 12-year secessionist rebellion on the island of Bougainville, the longest running conflict in the Pacific, forced the closure of the giant Panguna gold and copper mine.

The army topple the government during the rebellion in 1997 for bringing in mercenaries to try to end the Bougainville conflict, which ended with a peace treaty in 2001.

Despite PNG's robust politics, which have seen governments in the past toppled as lawmakers change party allegiances, the nation's "golden goose" resource sector has largely been left unhindered by the turmoil.

PNG's economy is tipped to grow 7.8 percent next year, driven largely by the construction of a massive liquefied natural gas project.

U.S. oil giant ExxonMobil leads a consortium building the country's biggest-ever resource project, a $15.7 billion LNG project due to come on stream in 2014. The project is expected to produce 6.6 million tonnes per annum and could see GDP increase by 20 percent.
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSL3...3?irpc=932

[Tree]

O'Neill has a mandate of support in Parliament and Somare received support from a narrowly divided 3-2 SC whose Chief's impartiality is in doubt. This move by Governor General is a big deal for O'Neill camp.

[Tree]

Guess we have 2 Petroleum Ministers now, doubles the chances of getting PDL!

“Trying to forecast one week ahead is quite a challenge because we wake up this morning and we basically have two prime ministers, two police commissioners and two of everything else,” Institute of National Affairs director Paul Barker told PNGIndustryNews.net.

He said last night there were separate police factions aligned to O’Neill and Somare, while Governor General Michael Ogio had his own police unit to protect him from everyone."

**********

Old guard returns to PNG
Blair Price
Tuesday, 13 December 2011

THERE were reports of gunshots outside Papua New Guinea’s government house hours after the nation’s Supreme Court ruled Sir Michael Somare was the rightful prime minister yesterday but no significant impacts are expected for PNG’s mining and petroleum players.

Sir Michael Somare

Somare, one of PNG’s founding fathers, lost his reign as prime minister to Peter O’Neill through a controversial parliament vote on August 2 while on four months of extended medical leave.

The vote was determined to be unconstitutional and void in a 3:2 decision of the Supreme Court yesterday, while the O’Neill coalition passed amendments in parliament in an attempt to keep O’Neill as prime minister.

Neither leader was sworn in as prime minister following the court case but O’Neill was denied access to the nation’s governor general by police last night.

There were reports of gunfire at parliament house at some stage afterwards.

“Trying to forecast one week ahead is quite a challenge because we wake up this morning and we basically have two prime ministers, two police commissioners and two of everything else,” Institute of National Affairs director Paul Barker told PNGIndustryNews.net.

He said last night there were separate police factions aligned to O’Neill and Somare, while Governor General Michael Ogio had his own police unit to protect him from everyone.

Barker said Somare was likely to be sworn in as leader in Port Moresby at around 1pm local time today but he expected other difficulties as the twice-delayed budget was also due to be passed in parliament today.

“Both sides really need that budget to be passed because they need the electoral commissioner to be able to get the allocated 180 million kina to prepare for the elections [due in mid-2012],” he said.

He did not expect major instances of civil unrest but said the different police factions were a worry.

But there is also a risk either the Somare camp or the O’Neill coalition will grab at opportunities to access more government funds ahead of what will be a fiercely contested election.

“What a lot of people will fear is that it’s just a chance for one or the other to get their hands on the kitty for the next few months,” Barker said.

“Unfortunately both sides have a limited number of angels in them.”

A wave of looming contempt charges facing front bench members of the O’Neill coalition could finalise the reinstalment of the Somare government.

Belden Namah, who was deputy prime minister under the O’Neill government, is already facing contempt charges before the Supreme Court this morning for his involvement in a failed attempt to suspend the court’s Chief Justice Sir Salamo Injia last month.

A source aligned with the Somare camp told PNGIndustryNews.net its lawyers would press for Namah to be immediately jailed for breaching his bail conditions.

Namah, along with up to 64 other members of parliament, voted on Friday to retroactively rescind the leave of absence granted to Somare earlier this year.

The O’Neill government passed further amendments to secure O’Neill’s position as prime minister yesterday while the Supreme Court judges were stating their findings.

The parliamentary actions could be deemed to be contempt of the recent Supreme Court case on the legitimacy of the O’Neill government and Namah had already been warned.

“If he is put behind bars, I think it will send a chill down the spine of everyone on the other side,” the source said.

If sentenced to more than nine months of prison, Namah will not be able to stand for election for three years, which would be a severe blow to the O’Neill coalition.

The source expects the National Executive Council members of the coalition, including O’Neill, will all be targeted for further contempt charges.

The Somare camp already announced its new cabinet, with John Pundari – known for criticising BHP Billiton over its past operation of the Ok Tedi mine – flagged to return as mining minister.

Francis Potape is expected to return as Petroleum and Energy minister under the resurrected Somare government.

Neither Barker nor the source expected significant impacts to the active mining and petroleum companies under a reinstalled Somare government.

The O’Neill government previously caused some fears in the sectors by flagging possible changes to the country’s resource ownership laws but it backtracked on the stance in recent months due to a widespread industry outcry.

While 76-year-old Somare has lost considerable weight this year, he has made a remarkable recovery from operations on his heart, lungs and kidneys in Singapore.

In late June, his retirement from politics was prematurely announced by his son Arthur, back when the outlook was more grim.

Somare previously signalled ambitions to at least lead PNG through to the next election.

[Palm]

Somare will probably survive this whole thing. Since violence has largely been avoided to this point he may start getting the normal defections that happen. With the elections coming ministers will need to "play nice politics". A biggie could be how the budget is handled. If it is left largely intact, the masses may stay at bay. If they change the budget and take away funding for programs and infrastructure, there could be problems.

One thing to watch if the budget stays largely intact is the proposed funding for the PNG LNG project. There is concern they won't be able to get the amount raised/borrowed conventionally. If Shell kicks it in, it will get them a stronger foothold.

Potape's first statements will be watched closely.

[Bincbanker]

Potape will not want to rock the boat , beside he said basically the same as Duma , and IOC has complied