Morgan Stanley

[Gator]

PDF attached

[ArtM72]

The Morgan Stanley report is something along the lines of a report, if found on SHU, that would be criticized as hype. Hard to share a common view with its opening paragraph:

"Dr. Hession’s first call at IOC helm went well with
clear corporate vision and exploration restart"

Either MS knows something we don't or the analyst doesn't have critical thinking skills as a strong suit. "Call went well" Stock down 10%. "Clear Corporate Vision" Don't want to think about running an LNG by ourselves, yet anyway, although its my personal dream. "Exploration restart" We won't say what we're going to do with our two rigs, when PRE will be active or for that matter whether we'll find someone to rent us a rig for maybe a Wahoo spud next November if all goes well.

I fear the MS report is disingenuous, and THAT worries me.

[efi426hemi]

"our view of IOC vision: discover gas, sell it to a Major and return excess cash to shareholders"

Funny, when I riding to the airport in Houston with one of the IOC BoD's, he mentioned that he thought the above outlined by MS was also a very good idea??!!

Art - The fine print from the Management Discussion and Analysis states:

• Further to the collaborative program with OSE, we with PRE and other partners will progress plans to acquire two further appraisal seismic lines in the Triceratops field to further define future drilling targets.

If I remember correctly, PRE is known for their off the charts exploration success due to very thorough seismic exploration before hand.  Clearly PRE isn't going to be active until all seismic is done, including the above and the OSH/Total paid seismic.  Also concerning the 2 rigs, I think it is possible that XOM may have locked up the rigs as part of the sell down negotiation.  XOM right now only cares about PRL 15 and has committed to drilling additional wells there.  Perhaps they told IOC that as part of the selldown deal, IOC needs to provide the 2 drilling rigs - just wild speculation on my part.

Keep it on Ice,

Hemi

[trans]

The Morgan Stanley report is something along the lines of a report, if found on SHU, that would be criticized as hype. Hard to share a common view with its opening paragraph: "Dr. Hession’s first call at IOC helm went well with clear corporate vision and exploration restart" Either MS knows something we don't or the analyst doesn't have critical thinking skills as a strong suit. "Call went well" Stock down 10%. "Clear Corporate Vision" Don't want to think about running an LNG by ourselves, yet anyway, although its my personal dream. "Exploration restart" We won't say what we're going to do with our two rigs, when PRE will be active or for that matter whether we'll find someone to rent us a rig for maybe a Wahoo spud next November if all goes well. I fear the MS report is disingenuous, and THAT worries me.

If anyone know what' the deal is is likely Even,  and he has likely the contacts that other's don't, but he's been very above aobard as a lead analyst, and just imo, but his  postive glean on this today, is likely send a message to his clients that all is okay, despite the emotions abounding> I thouhht about this, and believe I'm on to something....good