03-06-2012, 10:18 PM
There is something about http://www.interoil.com/presentation/201..._Final.pdf page 18 that I do not understand. That should not be surprising as I do not understand most these seismic pictures. Please do your own DD and do not depend on anything that I say to make investment decisions. The following is just one man’s opinion.
A while back we had a fellow, who seemed to be reasonably intelligent, on Yazoo who was accused of window peeping. On yesterday’s RJ presentation we may have been given a glimpse of what he was seeing when he was peeping.
As I have explained many times before it is the thickness of the gas column that causes these reservoirs to be over pressured at the top. I have suggested that the reef being drilled at T-2 will have a gas column about 2,200 feet thick or the top of the reservoir is 2,200 feet above the gas/water contact. It is not possible for me to come up with accurate depths for the top of the reservoir at the West (left) end of the seismic section shown on page18 but it is obviously much higher above the gas/water contact than the top of the reservoir will be at T-2. You may recall that I have guessed the reservoir pressure might be about 2,600 psi at the top of the reservoir at T-2. I can easily visualize the depth of the carbonate at the West end of the seismic line shown on page 18 being as shallow as 2,600 feet. The reservoir pressure that far up dip would probably only be 2,500 psi or less but still the pressure would be approaching the normally recognized frac gradient of 1 psi/ft (2,500 psi/2600 feet). Also it is not clear to me what the trapping mechanism is on the West end of this line.
This seismic line shown of page 18 is 22 km long and is open ended at both ends i.e. there is still carbonate rock above the gas/water contact at both ends. What is beyond the chart? Bwata West is on the fringe of the two dormant volcanoes to the South. See http://www.interoil.com/presentation/201..._Final.pdf chart 20. Does the carbonate continue to the West and go back down dip beyond the mountains? Notice Pteranodon lurking over the horizon on chart 20.
I believe this strike line, shown on page 18 of the RJ presentation, was available to Knowledge Reservoir when they made their resource estimate http://www.interoil.com/presentation/201..._Final.pdf page 25. So they would have included all of that rock to the West of T-2. I think that means they considered all of that rock to be fractured limestone and not reef limestone. I think these reefs build up on the higher density/lower porosity platform limestone. So on the seismic we look for the buildups or increased thickness due to the presence of the reef. I only see a couple of small buildups that could represent some reefal rock on the section west of T-2. I think we will have to be satisfied with the reef at T-2 and the possible reefal buildups near T-2, identified by the Phase 3 seismic program http://www.interoil.com/presentation/201..._Final.pdf chart 14. I am referring to the green colors to the North and East of T-2 on the Phase 3 map. I believe the red high spots to the West are likely fractured platform limestone but I could be wrong. I think the platform limestone has been elevated by the emerging mountain/volcano to the South. This plus the fault on the South side of the seismic line probably assures us of a lot of fractures in the limestone. I would have to see more evidence to be convinced of the presence of a reef west of T-2. It is possible that something shows up on the two westerly most dip seismic lines that we have not yet been shown.
I think the next resource estimate may be higher that that shown on http://www.interoil.com/presentation/201..._Final.pdf chart 25 but if so I think it will be based on new information from the Phase 3 seismic i.e. areas to the North and East of T-2 and possibly due to finding the top of the reservoir a little higher than expected at T-2. I am no longer counting on the Triceratops Field being 2 - 4 times EA. I would recommend taking all hearsay estimates with a grain of salt until the next third party estimate is available. It looks like the reef we are drilling at T-2 may be only about 2.8 km x 4 km.
I think the T-3 will likely target the high point of the reef south or southwest of T-2. See http://www.interoil.com/presentation/201..._Final.pdf charts 14 and 15. Use the Phase 3 map on chart 14.
