26/10 post from YMB, I tried to copy and send link but Yahoo deleted the post, good thing i had the content in separate window
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CASE STUDY OF PRIOR MW ATTACKS (EDU, FMCN) AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR SHORT COVERING
FMCN and EDU were both cases in which MW attacks accusing fraud proved wrong. FMCN was taken private & EDU is currently trading, both pre-attack prices.
Case 1. FMCN (Nov-11)
Share price fell from 25.5 pre-attack to a low of 8.59 for -66% return
Within 2 weeks short covering drives price to $22.75 which is a 200% return from post attack low and -11% return from pre-attack prices
Shares fully recovered to pre-attack in 3 months
Case 2. EDU (Jul-12)
Share price fell from 22.10 pre-attack to a low of 9.40 for -57% return.
Within 1 month short covering drives price to 14.85 which is a 57% return from post attack low and -32% return from pre-attack prices
Shares fully recovered in 9 months *Note, outside of MW report, Analysts were anyway concerned about pace of learning centre build out and impact on margins which required confirmation of positive margin trends in next two earnings reports.
Current Case: NQ
Share price has fallen from $25.9 high pre-attack to $10.6 for -59% return.
This is inline with both EDU and FMCN cases.
****Based on EDU and FMCN cases studies expect short covering in the next two weeks to one month to drive share price up between 50% and 200%. I expect at least 100% from current prices given positive catalysts in the very short term (1) Blow Out Earnings (Nov-12) (2) Auditor Confirmation of Cash Balances (Early Nov) and possible reclassification of cash to Level 1 for Investor comfort (3) Analyst Day showing Potential of NQ Live (Nov-19) (4) Seeking Alpha and Company reports detailing point by point how MW accusations are inaccurate which should be picked up by newswires (5) Announcement of new carrier sign (6) stock buy back post earnings (8) Current sell side analysts maintaining their TP (8) Possible initiation by Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank and (9) I also expect a possible dividend initiation at earnings***** Less