NQ performance relative to EDU, FMCN, ONP

[harry2013]

Please see attached relative performance chart. All stock prices have been rebased to 100, seven days prior to the MW attack (on account of some big moves even before the report was released).

Main observations are

(1) NQ is perfoming better than other proven non frauds EDU and ONP. Not as great as FMCN but then again MW allegation centred around screen count which was easier and faster to independently verify than financials.

(2)  Within 100 trading days group was trading at an average 10-15% discount to day 1 basis price . I stopped the day count at 100 trading days but would note ONP continued its surge for another few sessions after.

(3) Assuming audit time table along the same time frame as EDU we have about 1 calender month to wait for NQ to deliver (mid Jan). Note sustained EDU uptrend prior to audit result, and pop straight after followed by more consolidation.

(4) ONP took far longer to announce audit results, but then again MW fraud allegations were first of its kind, and auditors probably wanted to cover their bases completely hence long audit duration. However, announcement of impending audit report created a big pop in share price. Assuming NQ can says everything progressing smoothly re: audit at 23 Dec annual meeting we might expect something similar.

Also, Thanks to tradestar2012 and his SA report for providing relevant dates.

[Mountainbiker]

Please see attached relative performance chart. All stock prices have been rebased to 100, seven days prior to the MW attack (on account of some big moves even before the report was released).

Main observations are

(1) NQ is perfoming better than other proven non frauds EDU and ONP. Not as great as FMCN but then again MW allegation centred around screen count which was easier and faster to independently verify than financials.

(2)  Within 100 trading days group was trading at an average 10-15% discount to day 1 basis price . I stopped the day count at 100 trading days but would note ONP continued its surge for another few sessions after.

(3) Assuming audit time table along the same time frame as EDU we have about 1 calender month to wait for NQ to deliver (mid Jan). Note sustained EDU uptrend prior to audit result, and pop straight after followed by more consolidation.

(4) ONP took far longer to announce audit results, but then again MW fraud allegations were first of its kind, and auditors probably wanted to cover their bases completely hence long audit duration. However, announcement of impending audit report created a big pop in share price. Assuming NQ can says everything progressing smoothly re: audit at 23 Dec annual meeting we might expect something similar.

Also, Thanks to tradestar2012 and his SA report for providing relevant dates.

Thanks for putting this together. It gives a good perspective of its relative performance post MW's hit job.

[Bondguy8]

In the other cases did MW keep trying to "prove" his initial thesis?  What were his last public discussions on each? I am trying to guesstimate if MW will come out with any more literature after the audit comes out.  Will he try and refute audit results and say they were bias because NQ hired Deloitte?

[ivonmx]

In the other cases did MW keep trying to "prove" his initial thesis?  What were his last public discussions on each? I am trying to guesstimate if MW will come out with any more literature after the audit comes out.  Will he try and refute audit results and say they were bias because NQ hired Deloitte?

If that happens, which side do you believe? MW can refute anything on the earth and it's up to the investors to pick a side. I don't even think MW will have another piece for the audit result, they are smart short sellers and won't bother sticking with a stock for too long. They are better off finding another target because they do have the ability to shake the market.

[tradestar2012]

In the other cases did MW keep trying to "prove" his initial thesis?  What were his last public discussions on each? I am trying to guesstimate if MW will come out with any more literature after the audit comes out.  Will he try and refute audit results and say they were bias because NQ hired Deloitte?

The only case where MW kept up some presence was FMCN. They continued hit pieces for about 1 more month after the last audit.

FWIW, I do not think MW has anything left until the NQ audit comes out. If they did, they would have said something after the analyst day.