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Dream Deal??: Woodie/IOC
#11
You are ignoring Interoil cost structure . Others must charge more for gas based on their cost structure. Add in Wood Mac showing supply and demand curves based on plants closing like Arun already has and in today's environment we survive quite well and with lower supply and higher demand and others with high cost the LNG price per mmbtu must rise . Oil and gas are both cyclical commodities . This is near if not the bottom of the cycle . What happens when we start back up in price ??
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#12

'jft310' pid='65731' datel Wrote:

'davidhmtk' pid='65730' dateline='<a href="tel:1452088 Wrote:

'Thylacine-2' pid='65723' dateline='<a href="tel:1452084 Wrote:Yeah, those carbonate reservoirs cave in. And what about dry hole blowback?

Got a feeling that this story was planted by Woodside as a prelude to a lowish offer for IOC.   They are looking for a deal, but want a bargain and this is an effort to lower expectations/other potential counterbids.

David

agree 100 percent

I and a few others also agree.

 I will add... prior to mid year.

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#13

If IOC does get a takeover bid, don't forget the 'poison pill' shareholders rights agreement that is in effect for IOC.

Here is a little refresher:


(April 24, 2013, 3:32 PM ET) -- InterOil Corp. has adopted a poison pill designed to keep any hostile bidder under 20 percent as it weighs possible joint venture partners for its $6 billion liquefied natural gas export project in Papua New Guinea, the company said Wednesday.
The Canadian energy company said the new plan ensures “that all shareholders are treated fairly in connection with any takeover offer for the company” and that the board isn't blindsided by an unsolicited bid. The record date for participation in the rights plan is May 29.

To avoid triggering the pill, any would-be buyer must make a bona fide tender offer for all of InterOil, which has a market capitalization of about $3.9 billion. The offer must remain open for 60 days, and if the bidder gets a majority of shares, it can take control.

If a buyer doesn't play by the rules, existing stockholders can buy new shares at a steep discount to market price, effectively diluting the would-be raider.

Poison pills are less common among Canadian companies, and their legal standing somewhat shakier. But two proposals unveiled last month may strengthen them. One, from Canada's national securities oversight body, would no longer let provincial regulators overturn a poison pill, which happens in some cases in as little as two months. Another, from Quebec's regulator, would let boards adopt poison pills without shareholder consent.

Together, the changes are likely to give boards more firepower to fend off unwanted suitors.

InterOil stressed that its own pill, which shareholders will vote on at a June 24 meeting, is not in response to any particular threat. But the company is on the hunt for a Big Oil partner for its $6 billion LNG export project in Papua New Guinea and may be trying to keep the sale process from turning into a full-blown takeover attempt.

Papua New Guinea officials formally approved the project in November after more than six months of tense negotiations, on the condition that InterOil, which has never managed a project this large, bring in a proven operator. Morgan Stanley, Macquarie Capital Inc. and UBS AG ran the sales process and came up with several bidders, InterOil confirmed in early March.

The company has not yet chosen a winner, but said last week that confidential negotiations are ongoing, and that it will comment once it reaches an agreement. Last month, it sold a 10 percent stake to Pacific Rubiales Corp. — a company CEO Phil Mulacek said has “a track record of successful exploration and production development” — but that appears to have been separate from its agreement with the PNG government.

Wednesday's announcement comes a day after Mulacek, who founded InterOil in 1997, said he would resign as CEO effective May 1. His 15-year tenure has overseen InterOil's development of its PNG licenses, but has been fraught with stumbles on the way to commercialization.

Papua New Guinea has been a popular, but troubled destination for big energy projects. The island nation is thought to hold more than 22 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, according to U.K.-based consulting firm Wood Mackenzie, and its proximity to China, Japan, Korea and India — all among the world's top five LNG importers — offer a built-in market.

ExxonMobil Corp. is sinking some $2 billion in equity and $3.75 billion in its own co-lending package to develop a $15.7 billion LNG project there.

But the island hasn't been the most hospitable host. Both Exxon and InterOil Corp. have seen operations waylaid by land disputes, government demands and violence from locals. Development at Exxon's field stalled for months in 2011 when local residents demanded more money for their land and threatened oil workers, and InterOil was recently pressured into giving the PNG government and locals more ownership in its project.

InterOil's Australian and PNG counsel is Gadens. In the U.S., it is represented by Haynes and Boone LLP.

Source: http://www.interoil.com/investor-relatio...reholders/


Also another article regarding the poison pill:

[Source:] http://www.law360.com/articles/435622/in...-for-6b-jv


And the actual shareholder's rights agreement is at: http://www.interoil.com/company/governance/ (under 'Shareholders Rights Plan Agreement').

Finally, I note that this Agreement was amended in August of this year. Does anyone recall any notice of that amendment or what it actually was?
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#14

'davidhmtk' pid='65730' datel Wrote:

'Thylacine-2' pid='65723' datel Wrote:Yeah, those carbonate reservoirs cave in. And what about dry hole blowback?

Got a feeling that this story was planted by Woodside as a prelude to a lowish offer for IOC.   They are looking for a deal, but want a bargain and this is an effort to lower expectations/other potential counterbids.

I do not buy that theory, and find it difficult to believe Woodside really thinks that kind of trash would have much effect.  If Woodside goes after IOC, their competition will be industry experts who will know as much about IOC's resources as they do.  Of course everyone wants a bargain, and given the suspected but unknown potential of IOC, a buyer probably will have one eventually, but I think they will at least have to pay a reasonable price for what is known now or at the time of purchase, and that such price is well above current market cap.

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#15

'Getitrt2' pid='65740' datel Wrote:

'davidhmtk' pid='65730' datel Wrote:

'Thylacine-2' pid='65723' datel Wrote:Yeah, those carbonate reservoirs cave in. And what about dry hole blowback?

Got a feeling that this story was planted by Woodside as a prelude to a lowish offer for IOC.   They are looking for a deal, but want a bargain and this is an effort to lower expectations/other potential counterbids.

I do not buy that theory, and find it difficult to believe Woodside really thinks that kind of trash would have much effect.  If Woodside goes after IOC, their competition will be industry experts who will know as much about IOC's resources as they do.  Of course everyone wants a bargain, and given the suspected but unknown potential of IOC, a buyer probably will have one eventually, but I think they will at least have to pay a reasonable price for what is known now or at the time of purchase, and that such price is well above current market cap.

I base my speculation on Woodside's lowball offer for Oilsearch, a careful reading of the article, and the magic dust kicked up by the Jan 40 calls I picked up from someone taking a loss.  Getit, the target audience imo is us, as we will all get to vote our shares.

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#16
It is highly probable the decade+ old estimates of PNG natural gas resources are too low. Quite possibly they are far too low. When we reference back to the estimates of the IEA or CIA or DOE or FDICIALSDLBJ we should begin referencing the publication dates.

I continue to wonder why we have heard NOTHING from management about what was found at Wahoo.

Here's a credible guess: They found sand lenses charged with gas. What (if anything) does IOC know about the volume or connectivity of those lenses and their potential to hold gas? Do you think one of those guys drilling coal gas wells up in Australia would love a shot drilling some horizontal segments at Wahoo?

I have no quibble with focusing on Papua LNG for now. What my concern is some day finding out IOC's eastern PPLs sold off at a price reflecting the one and only chance in that region to find gas, Wahoo 1, came up dry.
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#17
The reason we hear nothing about Wahoo is that their was nothing to "crow about".
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#18

'Tree' pid='65718' datel Wrote:


Dream Deals: Woodside Petroleum and InterOil



Still smarting from the brusque rebuff by Oil Search for its $11.6 billion scrip offer, Woodside Petroleum could find solace by turning to smaller Papua New Guinea player InterOil Corporation.

With a market value of about $US1.5 billion, New York-listed InterOil is less than a quarter of the price of Oil Search, yet still offers entry into the burgeoning PNG LNG export sector, albeit from a much less established base.

InterOil's Elk-Antelope gas resource is said to be Asia's biggest discovery in the past decade, and is seen as large enough to underpin an LNG project of two, if not three, trains. Some other discoveries also have strong potential.

Woodside is on the hunt for growth to capitalise on its solid balance sheet, with a focus on undervalued, but high-potential assets, while PNG is regarded as one of the few countries that could see any expansion of its LNG sector in the next few years even if oil lingers below consensus, medium-term forecasts of about $US60 a barrel.

Yet just how much gas sits in Elk-Antelope is still being determined by the drilling of appraisal wells, which are set to continue into the first few months of 2016. With the resources to be formally certified by mid-2016, any figure above 3.5 trillion cubic feet will trigger an additional payment from French major Total SA under a deal struck in 2014.

Drilling so far is taking longer than expected but is yielding positive results. Citigroup analyst Dale Koenders puts further contingency and milestone payments for InterOil potentially at $US1.6billion, more than the current market value.


FEWER OBSTACLES


InterOil's share register presents fewer obstacles than Oil Search's, being untroubled by a PNG government stake. Kiwi billionaire Richard Chandler sold his 15 per cent stake in July, contributing to the near 50 per cent drop in the stock since then.

Personal links between the companies are meanwhile strong, with InterOil full of former Woodsiders, from chief executive Michael Hession and several of his lieutenants, through to director Roger Lewis.

Counting against the deal happening are the reservations Woodside is thought to hold towards InterOil's gas resources, being far less certain than Oil Search's. The "carbonate" style of the reservoir makes it more challenging and risky for development, industry sources say.

Highbury Partnership banker Alan Young says plenty of majors have been attracted to InterOil's PNG gas resources in the past but backed off after taking a closer look, concluding it would be difficult to make it work, and potentially require many more wells to get the gas out of the ground. 

There is also the question of competition. Total, as the liable party for the additional payment to InterOil, is an obvious buyer for the US-listed company, as is ExxonMobil, which has long had its eye on Elk-Antelope gas and is the operator of the producing PNG LNG venture. Oil Search is another contender.

InterOil's foreign listing is also problematic as it suggests Woodside would have to offer cash, a move to which chief executive Peter Coleman is averse.




Read more: http://www.afr.com/business/energy/oil/dream-deals-woodside-petroleum-and-interoil-20151223-glu5hi#ixzz3wScqL66N 
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#19

'Putncalls' pid='65745' datel Wrote:The reason we hear nothing about Wahoo is that their was nothing to "crow about".

Put - The results might not have been anything to crow about but that doesn't mean they don't carry significant information.  Don't you think we should have an explanation as to what we found after $75 million?  If nothing else how thick was the overpressured sand lens that first shut down drilling?  Were there any other sand lenses encountered that did/did not/may carry gas?  What was the composition of the overpressured gas?  Were there any attempts to test any formations below the overpressured seam?

You should want to know that too.

A

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#20

'ArtM72' pid='65752' datel Wrote:

'Putncalls' pid='65745' datel Wrote:The reason we hear nothing about Wahoo is that their was nothing to "crow about".

Put - The results might not have been anything to crow about but that doesn't mean they don't carry significant information.  Don't you think we should have an explanation as to what we found after $75 million?  If nothing else how thick was the overpressured sand lens that first shut down drilling?  Were there any other sand lenses encountered that did/did not/may carry gas?  What was the composition of the overpressured gas?  Were there any attempts to test any formations below the overpressured seam?

You should want to know that too.

That inormation has value as long as it's not public. I think their are lot's of secrets in the oil and gas business.

A

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