Posts: 12,025
Threads: 1,809
Joined: Apr 2008
Reputation:
227
Interview with Whitney Tilson, by Motley Fool(!), here the relevant exerpt:
I'm almost hesitant talk about specific shorts because they've been so painful and I look like such an idiot. My long book's been ripping.
Let me see if I can find...Look, my largest short for a number of years, and this will just show the agony of short selling, is an oil and gas company called InterOil (NYSE: IOC). I've probably been shorted for about five years. The stock has fluctuated from $40 to almost $100 a share.
Today it's up 10% on the company promising a major deal with a major oil company. They claim to have discovered one of the world's largest natural gas fields in Papua, New Guinea. I'm skeptical that they found what they've claimed, and that a deal that they've been promising for years is suddenly imminent.
But in the meantime, the stock's gone from $50 to $85 this year. It's been a painful ride in the short term, but if I'm right that they don't have what they say they have, the intrinsic value here literally could be zero. But I've been wrong on it for five years.
He doubts "they have what they say they have"
-
It isn't interOil that says what it has, it's GLJ (and there are two previous reports by Knowledge Reservoir and Gaffney Kline)
-
What is the basis for Tilson's argument? He isn't a specialist in resource exporation, he doesn't have access to the data room, the only relevant information out there are the above three reports
-
They've drilled another well (Antelope 3) with similar characteristics as Ant1&2 further reducing the scope for any worries about resource continuity
-
IOC has made another discovery in Triceratops and made a pretty good deal with PRE
We have been there before..
I actually have a fair amount of respect for Tilson (his long game is pretty good, and needless to say he does quite a lot of philantrophy), but this just seems a bit silly to me.. But perhaps that's just me.
Posts: 12,025
Threads: 1,809
Joined: Apr 2008
Reputation:
227
Posts: 12,025
Threads: 1,809
Joined: Apr 2008
Reputation:
227
I'm simply at a loss to explain his position. He's obviously smart. I don't believe he's a crook (but I might be wrong, I don't know him all that well), but he simply doesn't have a basis for saying what he says about the resource. The only information he can base an opinion on are those three resource reports, there is simply nothing else, unless he hacked the dataroom. The only vaguely reasonable explanation I can come up with is that he's helping out, or being influenced by one of the big shorts who is of a less respectable disposition.
I simply cannot imagine any other explanation, unless he's simply not rational on this. But he's pretty rational on lots of other stuff, so I have some trouble with believing that.
Posts: 41
Threads: 7
Joined: Mar 2013
Reputation:
6
'admin' pid='24773' datel Wrote:I'm simply at a loss to explain his position. He's obviously smart. I don't believe he's a crook (but I might be wrong, I don't know him all that well), but he simply doesn't have a basis for saying what he says about the resource. The only information he can base an opinion on are those three resource reports, there is simply nothing else, unless he hacked the dataroom. The only vaguely reasonable explanation I can come up with is that he's helping out, or being influenced by one of the big shorts who is of a less respectable disposition. I simply cannot imagine any other explanation, unless he's simply not rational on this. But he's pretty rational on lots of other stuff, so I have some trouble with believing that.
Well, his recent tinvesting record has been dismal ( the last time I looked ) and he is "rumoured " to have assisted in planting erroneous negative reports on IOC. Perhaps his arrogance gets in the way of being able to admit his mistakes. I have very little respect for him and his , along with other shorts, attempts to bring ruin to valid companies ( resulting in lost jobs, income, etc ).
Posts: 12,025
Threads: 1,809
Joined: Apr 2008
Reputation:
227
Well, I don't really have a problem with someone having a different opinion than mine, it's what makes a market. However, he's been saying this about the resource for years, and I simply can't figure out what the basis is for him to say that. He basically says GLJ is wrong. Based on what exactly?!
Posts: 8,568
Threads: 1,342
Joined: Dec 2011
Reputation:
380
STP you are way off the mark here. He Tilson hired Barry M for $40K to trash IOC. His partner fired him. His clients left him he lost over $100 million in client assets in 12 months and manages less than $18 million today. Many on this Board manage more money than Whitney Tilson.
Posts: 840
Threads: 40
Joined: Dec 2011
Reputation:
181
'admin' pid='24775' datel Wrote:Well, I don't really have a problem with someone having a different opinion than mine, it's what makes a market. However, he's been saying this about the resource for years, and I simply can't figure out what the basis is for him to say that. He basically says GLJ is wrong. Based on what exactly?!
STP, He's one of the biggest phoneys managing money. I can't believe he hasn't been banned from the industry. imo.
Posts: 12,025
Threads: 1,809
Joined: Apr 2008
Reputation:
227
Why is that, Trans? It's certainly unusual to talk publicly about one's short positions, but "one of the biggest phoneys" dunno. Don't know him well enough.
|
