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'admin' pid='10556' datel Wrote:
Thanks Sam, I would have missed that..
["My understanding is that the seismics on Triceratops indicate a lower carbonate base and potentially a much bigger structure than previously contemplated, and this is reflected in the new slides. Probably the most significant revelation on the prospectivity on InterOil's acreage begins on page 16 on in the upstream presentation, and it describes the basis for a major extension of the reefal carbonate trend and for the invalidation of old palaogeographic models. The person with whom I spoke has extensive experience in the petroleum industry and was astonished by the acreage potential in InterOil's PPLs. He thinks that there is potential for multiple additional multi-tcf discoveries and that the majors have started to grasp the magnitude of the potential.
Based on the attendee's assessment, with the NEC approval and sell-down catalysts imminent, not only will Elk and Antelope be revalued, but also Triceratops and the remaining acreage will be significantly revalued. It's also clear to him that the government wants FID to happen as soon as possible and certainly this year, but a sell-down will conclude much sooner."]
I'll leave it for the specialists to evaluate the triceratops comments, which, if true, seem to hold very bullish implications.
For some time, I've been in favor of perhaps making a few concessions on the E/A selldown, or perhaps sell a bigger stake (even all of it, if necessary) in it in order to drill all these prospects, on which the odds for other significant finds seemed particularly favorable. While optimisim about the E/A selldown is increasing as well, so significant concessions might not be necessary, but the prospects elsewhere in their licence area seem to be getting more interesting by the day..
Reefs usually don't come in isolated single appearances..
The statement by pickbone is perhaps the biggest piece of really good news in all of what is being said.
To be able to enhance the prospect of further resource discoveries is HUGE.
Why?
It will enhance shareholder value a LOT SOONER than building the first LNG plant.
Why?
Because in order to keep the leases, IOC is required to do exploratory drilling on 236 NEXT YEAR.
Think about it.
VS
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Yes, VS. It's why I wouldn't have mind selling off a majority stake, or even all of E/A if that was what it takes to go on a large scale reefal hunt, especially after the T2 confirmation.
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'admin' pid='10562' datel Wrote:
Yes, VS. It's why I wouldn't have mind selling off a majority stake, or even all of E/A if that was what it takes to go on a large scale reefal hunt, especially after the T2 confirmation.
ABSOLUTELY! What is happening with the E/A is only the tip of a very big iceberg, apparently. Sometimes a deal has to be cut to get the ball rolling and establish credibility with the various parties -- PNG gov't, potential partners, investment community, and yazoo posters.
VS
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Yes, the odds seem very favourable, especially now we know Triceratops is another whopper. And see that calculation in another thread here, even at $1/mcf for a 25% stake would be $2.8B with IOC's financing needs for its stake in the plant at less than $1B..
I think $2B or so could fund a rather large reefal hunting party, although we also have to drill a few appraisal wells, of course.
It's difficult to see much, if any downside from here, really.
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'admin' pid='10566' datel Wrote:
Yes, the odds seem very favourable, especially now we know Triceratops is another whopper. And see that calculation in another thread here, even at $1/mcf for a 25% stake would be $2.8B with IOC's financing needs for its stake in the plant at less than $1B..
I think $2B or so could fund a rather large reefal hunting party, although we also have to drill a few appraisal wells, of course.
It's difficult to see much, if any downside from here, really.
Whoa.
The stock will sell for a price determined by traders in the short-term and backed up by longer-term investors.
Hopefully, some investors will always be ready to step in, because we know from past painful experience what traders (incl. option players and the hated shorts) can do when left alone to do their thing.
It has been stated before by others that there are investors waiting on the sidelines with gobs of cash just waiting for some confirmations of NEC approval, SD, SMs, etc.
Nothing has changed in the stock price support situation -- YET.
We still need actions, not words -- hopefully soon.
Otherwise, the stock price will continue to be jerked around.
VS
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Yes, be that as it may.
However, I might have difficulties seeing much, if any downside from here, the much more interesting question is what these analysts visiting PNG and speaking directly to some of the most important stakeholders see..
I think we have good reasons to have a degree of optimism about that..
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When is the takeover talk going to heat up -- again?
I'm shocked we haven't already heard about it from the usual suspects.
VS
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Reading that IOC hopes to have a firm resource value on Triceratops this year I hope we don't hear anything regarding a takeover until those resource numbers come in bc that'll boost our takeover price substantially especially if we first put a $2-$3mcf price on E/A
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(10-02-2012, 01:56 AM)TxPm Wrote: Reading that IOC hopes to have a firm resource value on Triceratops this year I hope we don't hear anything regarding a takeover until those resource numbers come in bc that'll boost our takeover price substantially especially if we first put a $2-$3mcf price on E/A
Well VS, there you Go. As. Usual suspect I would also say that if it WERE going to happen any smart company would do it BEFORE the results to get in at a lower pps, JMHI
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TxPm and ebster123,
Based on a sample of you two being at essentially opposite ends of the spectrum, I'd say it makes no difference about the firm establishment of resource numbers.
Sophisticated buyers would be making judgements based on incomplete knowledge rather than anything approximating certainty -- as usual in such situations.
In addition, what would be bought would be the FUTURE prospects, which are only subject to guesses.
The spectre of a takeover will always be present.
Given the cast of characters, it is unlikely there could be much of an agreement on price for a friendly takeover and the possibility of an unfriendly takeover is only in dreams.
The IOC boys are simply having too much fun making progress -- and after the FIRST REAL PNG APPROVAL it will be a lot more fun for them. The snowball will have gained downhill momentum and there willl be no stopping it.
Peter O'Neill's PNG government and InterOil will be married at the hip for years of mutual benefit.
VS
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