Twas an analyst and investor trip this weekend

[ebster123]

VS, while I agree with almost everything you said we disagree in the potential for a takeover offer. Everyone as a price, Cove found that out. We shall see....

[jft310]

Ebster, A shocker but I agree with VS. The new slides show an even higher potential for new assets to be found on IOC leases. I think the PNG govt wants IOC to go it with them in the development of these super finds. Appears the PNG govt wants Petromin to be a Petronas. IOC has been there when others left PNG and that will not be forgotten. PNG considers IOC a PNG company. That loyalty will be rewarded with this govt. It will take IOC longer for the PPS to get to a takeover deal price today but the longer term price will be much higher as a stand alone company. Look at the slides. Expected cash flow will be $4.5 Billion for IOC owners. One needs patience.

[TxPm]

VS I wouldn't say I'm the opposite of Ebster. What I was saying is that as a shareholder I would rather a hostile offer come AFTER triceratops is given a Resource value however I'm fully aware of the fact that hostile bidders know the potential in IOC's other fields & most likely will try a takeover sooner rather than later should it happen

[ValueSleuth]

Ebster, A shocker but I agree with VS. The new slides show an even higher potential for new assets to be found on IOC leases. I think the PNG govt wants IOC to go it with them in the development of these super finds. Appears the PNG govt wants Petromin to be a Petronas. IOC has been there when others left PNG and that will not be forgotten. PNG considers IOC a PNG company. That loyalty will be rewarded with this govt. It will take IOC longer for the PPS to get to a takeover deal price today but the longer term price will be much higher as a stand alone company. Look at the slides. Expected cash flow will be $4.5 Billion for IOC owners. One needs patience.

Knock me over with a feather!

It must be some kind of planetary alignment or the effect of the Full Moon over the weekend.  LOL

Take care, jft.

VS

[Petrovale]

Reminder:

Visaggio also indicated what would happen if a supermajor outside of the Gulf LNG bidding process made a hostile takeover attempt for InterOil. “If it’s someone who is not involved in the process we can release the existing shortlisted bidders to make a bid should they wish – that’s the white knight story.” Such a move would surge InterOil’s share price upwards and could thwart a hostile takeover.

[sltibbs]

jft,

I am a fellow uber, but be careful when you say, "Expected cash flow will be $4.5 Billion for IOC owners." Note that is for the complete project, but post selldown IOC will probably only own 30% or so. Which is still huge. If it trades 10 times that CF measure that would approximately value IOC at almost 4 times its current valuation (this doesn't consider any proceeds from selldown, but assumes the proceeds are used to fund the project and drill a bunch). Also, $4 billion in CF for the entire project isn't estimated until 2019. Lots of execution required between now and then. Of course, if you want to be uber bullish though, you should try and estimate the value of IOC at 12 mmtpa from E/A, then throw in some sort of production off of B/T plus whatever else they may find.

Best,
Sam

[jft310]

Sam
My number is right off the IOC slides. But I agree with your comments a mere 100%.

[sageo]

[quote='admin' pid='10562' dateline='1349102327']

Yes, VS. It's why I wouldn't have mind selling off a majority stake, or even all of E/A if that was what it takes to go on a large scale reefal hunt, especially after the T2 confirmation.

Admin- I completely agree !

[ebster123]

Jft and VS, I do not at all disagree with your assessments and future value. I also agree that it is likely O'Neil sees the value of growing together with IOC. That is precisely why I believe they would be a good target once the risk is lowered a bit more ( formal NEC approval) and before the new numbers at E/A which would likely increase the value. We will see....

[jft310]

One hedgie I talk to several times a week thinks if IOC can make it to the next GLJ report that the risk of being bought out drops quite a bit. He predicts a GLJ of 18 T's and 500 million barrels of condensates by then.With all the approvals and a jump for increased asset size the PPS per share after the 5 for 1 split and the new liquidity with more access points like Singapore will keep a buy out off the table. He thinks the best time to sell it all will be right before the LNG plants open. Think of all the drilling that will complete by then and think of that early condensate strategy with PRE. Or use EWC at Triceratops. Lots of ways this can go. And it will change for sure between now and then