12-14-2012, 05:02 AM
(This post was last modified: 12-14-2012, 05:03 AM by freddiekingman.)
the Maya's were (probably) wrong, but the japanese could be right,according to good 'ol Blair...but look at it this way : IT COULD ENCOURAGE ONEILL to hurry up a tiny bit more...
http://www.pngindustrynews.net/storyview.asp?storyid=9643686§ionsource=s0
TIS the season for dire new year predictions. They include a 35% chance of an Australian recession, a high rate of executive-level job turnover and the left-field scare that Japan will shift to domestically sourced methane hydrates instead of imported LNG.
Courtesy of Woodmac.
That Japan could pioneer a new non-nuclear energy solution is of the most concern to increasingly LNG project-dependent countries such as Papua New Guinea and Australia.
Wood Mackenzie touched on Japan’s progress with methane hydrates, which is effectively methane trapped in marine sediments and Arctic permafrost, in its recently released Horizons 2013 report.
“During early 2013, Japan is scheduled to run the world’s first methane hydrate marine production test in the Nankai Trough [offshore Japan], south of Honshu,” Woodmac said.
“Reserve estimates in this play alone are 40 trillion cubic feet, equivalent to more than a decade of Japan’s gas demand. Full-scale commercial production is planned for 2018.”
The research and consultancy group discussed the significance if it went to plan.
“However unlikely, achieving this target will dramatically reposition Japan on the world energy stage, potentially turning it from a gas importer, to a self-sufficient province,” Woodmac said.
“The resulting fall in gas imports would severely disrupt the global LNG market, and question the viability of projects in Australia, Malaysia and Papua New Guinea.”
Under such a scenario, there is also the risk that Japan would export its hydrate extraction technology around the world.
“If Japan is successful in 2013, look for keen interest in developing methane hydrates from countries highly exposed to LNG imports.”
In other 2013 forecasts, Macquarie Private Wealth analysts believe the “best days are over for the China growth story”.
In its report on countries to buy and sell in, MPW said China was losing manufacturing competiveness to low-wage paying Mexico which had close links to a predicted “resurgent US economy”.
MPW’s separate report on Australia in 2013, titled “day of reckoning arrives”, discussed the economic pincers of lower commodity prices and a sustained strong Aussie dollar.
“It is possible that even if Chinese growth exceeds current expectations that the resource companies will not ramp up investment to the same extent as they did in the past,” MPW said.
“If that is the case, then Australian economic growth may no longer have upside leverage to Chinese growth. And that means that when looking for the next driver of growth, analysts and policymakers must look within Australia rather than look overseas.”
Given that Australia has ridden a commodities boom for years, MPW made a recession risk assessment.
“We estimate that the risk of a recession in 2013 is uncomfortably high, at around 35%.”
The analysts also viewed there are clear signs that mining and LNG-related investment in Australia had already peaked.
“The bottom-up view from Macquarie’s resource company analysts is that 2012 saw the peak in resource company capex,” MPW said.
“Finally, the Australian statistician’s [ABS] most recent survey of private businesses’ planned investment spending also suggests that mining companies no longer planned to increase spending from existing levels.”
In contrast to these views of a slower pace ahead, a notable recruiter has issued an alarmist report about renewed skills crisis impacts next year.
The Michael Page 2013 employee intentions report for Australia, based on a survey of 1500 professionals and executives, found 52% of respondents were “very likely to seek a new role in the next 12 months”.
“To address the potential increase in staff turnover rates, employers should look at implementing opportunities for professional development and awarding competitive remuneration to attract and retain the best talent,” PageGroup Australia & New Zealand regional managing director Phillip Guest warned.
“Further to this, two important incentives to keep employees engaged are offering workplace flexibility and other employee benefits.”
http://www.pngindustrynews.net/storyview.asp?storyid=9643686§ionsource=s0
TIS the season for dire new year predictions. They include a 35% chance of an Australian recession, a high rate of executive-level job turnover and the left-field scare that Japan will shift to domestically sourced methane hydrates instead of imported LNG.
Courtesy of Woodmac.
That Japan could pioneer a new non-nuclear energy solution is of the most concern to increasingly LNG project-dependent countries such as Papua New Guinea and Australia.
Wood Mackenzie touched on Japan’s progress with methane hydrates, which is effectively methane trapped in marine sediments and Arctic permafrost, in its recently released Horizons 2013 report.
“During early 2013, Japan is scheduled to run the world’s first methane hydrate marine production test in the Nankai Trough [offshore Japan], south of Honshu,” Woodmac said.
“Reserve estimates in this play alone are 40 trillion cubic feet, equivalent to more than a decade of Japan’s gas demand. Full-scale commercial production is planned for 2018.”
The research and consultancy group discussed the significance if it went to plan.
“However unlikely, achieving this target will dramatically reposition Japan on the world energy stage, potentially turning it from a gas importer, to a self-sufficient province,” Woodmac said.
“The resulting fall in gas imports would severely disrupt the global LNG market, and question the viability of projects in Australia, Malaysia and Papua New Guinea.”
Under such a scenario, there is also the risk that Japan would export its hydrate extraction technology around the world.
“If Japan is successful in 2013, look for keen interest in developing methane hydrates from countries highly exposed to LNG imports.”
In other 2013 forecasts, Macquarie Private Wealth analysts believe the “best days are over for the China growth story”.
In its report on countries to buy and sell in, MPW said China was losing manufacturing competiveness to low-wage paying Mexico which had close links to a predicted “resurgent US economy”.
MPW’s separate report on Australia in 2013, titled “day of reckoning arrives”, discussed the economic pincers of lower commodity prices and a sustained strong Aussie dollar.
“It is possible that even if Chinese growth exceeds current expectations that the resource companies will not ramp up investment to the same extent as they did in the past,” MPW said.
“If that is the case, then Australian economic growth may no longer have upside leverage to Chinese growth. And that means that when looking for the next driver of growth, analysts and policymakers must look within Australia rather than look overseas.”
Given that Australia has ridden a commodities boom for years, MPW made a recession risk assessment.
“We estimate that the risk of a recession in 2013 is uncomfortably high, at around 35%.”
The analysts also viewed there are clear signs that mining and LNG-related investment in Australia had already peaked.
“The bottom-up view from Macquarie’s resource company analysts is that 2012 saw the peak in resource company capex,” MPW said.
“Finally, the Australian statistician’s [ABS] most recent survey of private businesses’ planned investment spending also suggests that mining companies no longer planned to increase spending from existing levels.”
In contrast to these views of a slower pace ahead, a notable recruiter has issued an alarmist report about renewed skills crisis impacts next year.
The Michael Page 2013 employee intentions report for Australia, based on a survey of 1500 professionals and executives, found 52% of respondents were “very likely to seek a new role in the next 12 months”.
“To address the potential increase in staff turnover rates, employers should look at implementing opportunities for professional development and awarding competitive remuneration to attract and retain the best talent,” PageGroup Australia & New Zealand regional managing director Phillip Guest warned.
“Further to this, two important incentives to keep employees engaged are offering workplace flexibility and other employee benefits.”
