Mitsui

[sfiaes]

What is the likelyhood that Mitsui will drop out of the bidding in the next few days and request their money back?

Binc, God bless him, was pretty adamant over the last few months that they were out. Phil said as of the 3Q CC that everybody, including Mitsui, was still in at that time.

How much of this is already in the stock?

If Mitsui is out, who would replace them?

[sfiaes]

If I may be so bold to answer my own questions; I think the likelihood is pretty high. I think it is already in the stock. I think it will be a larger company, most likely a SM.

[TxPm]

Sfiaes, while I am not privy to any sort of inside info what leads you to believe this bc I actually believe the opposite to be true. Here is why: Mitsui extended their agreement with IOC until EOY back in the spring. Since then only positive things have happened for the stock. That extension was at a price of $2.2mcf. I would assume based on what has happened since the spring Mitsui has either kept their bid at $2.20 or raised their bid. If Mitsui is out it would be for one of two reasons either they were outbid or they dropped out. Nothing has happened in my opinion that would cause them to drop out since in the spring they were clearly interested which tells me if they are out its bc they were outbid. If they were outbid I believe 1) this would have leaked and the stock would be trading much higher right now 2) I think they (JKM) would have mentioned it in the press. If you recall they have mentioned their involvement to the press several times even though they have a CA which in turn leads me to believe they would mention their lack of involvement if no longer a bidder. Due to all of these "hints/opinions" I believe JKM is still involved and their bid is still being considered but once again this is just my opinion

[sfiaes]

All good points TxPm.

My concern with Mitsui goes back to a discussion in late October on the Yahoo board where Binc said Mitsui was out. I invite you to do a quick search on Yahoo and you will see the discussion. I also believe the idea was discussed on this board.

The stock had been hammered pretty good at that time. In trying to piece together the reasons we were down so much from the September highs, it seemed that along with the abrupt notion of selling more gas to the government, that something had queered the bids and Mitsui was out. I couldn't dismiss it out of hand. I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one who felt this way.

I have no knowledge of the bidding process other than what has been reported in the press.

We are facing another deadline with Mitsui. I think the stock has discounted a high probability that Mitsui asks for their money back.

If they extend the agreement that would only be a positive.

If they walk, first of all IOC has the money to pay them, secondly it implies a potentially higher bid and also it frees them to make an offer for the entire company.

[Palm]

Mitsui being in or out at this point has little bearing on the pps. Binck had info that Mitsui had already bailed on the project and that was not correct. When Mitsui was the primary player in the project their being in or out was much more crucial. Remember that when they were first in the plan was for reinjection of processed gas. Then EWC was added to the mix and reinjection went bye bye. Then Flex was added. So we had a huge company in Mitsui and two small startups. Mitsui was a huge key. They still are an important cog, but now we have other bidders and other options on CSPs. In fact EWC has even said that they can provide CSPs and less expensively than Mitsui.

So with the project now being bid by several companies (one of which includes Mitsui) they are no longer the lead as far as importance. Would it hurt for them to pull out? Possibly, but I agree with Tx. It would most likely be because they have been outbid. The last agreement expired June 30 before it was extended to Dec 31. What was going on back in June? Lots of turmoil and uncertainty for everyone. Since the election this project had done nothing but get better and more clear. I would expect the deadline to pass without fanfare knowing that negotiations are winding down. Similar to Feb 2011 when it expired. We heard nothing for quite some time, then it was extended.

Not much to get concerned or excited about with this.

[TxPm]

Palm I agree with your assessment 100%. The ony reason I believe Mitsui is important at this point is bc of them extending the agreement in June and the price where they extended the agreement. While I don't know for certain that the SD would occur at the same 2.20 price they used to extended the agreement this gives me a "ballpark" figure in regards to what JKM is likely to pay and tells me if they are outbid once again "ballpark" what mcf would be needed to outbid them

[jft310]

As far as money. IOC has the new $100 million loan and they have raised money from their IPI partners for A-3. Maybe this is the last call for IPI monies.???Mitsui wanted to extend last time, this time?? Their bid needs to come up its said. Nothing wrong with a $2.20 per mcf deal.

[Tree]

Mitsui = CSP funding vehicle option, allowing IOC CSP ownership. Likely Mitsui would only be in this role if JKM were SD partner or EWC scheme is chosen. Does anyone think a CVX or TOT or RDS would plow billions into an LNG plant dependent solely on a CSP owned/operated by IOC? Think not. That SM would own stake/operate the CSP as well as upstream and LNG plant.
Mitsui in or out deserves as much anguish as if RDS, TOT, CVX, PTT, XOM or JKM is in or out. A SD partner(s) will be selected and others will be left out.

[sfiaes]

"Mitsui = CSP funding vehicle option, allowing IOC CSP ownership. Likely Mitsui would only be in this role if JKM were SD partner or EWC scheme is chosen. Does anyone think a CVX or TOT or RDS would plow billions into an LNG plant dependent solely on a CSP owned/operated by IOC? Think not. That SM would own stake/operate the CSP as well as upstream and LNG plant. Mitsui in or out deserves as much anguish as if RDS, TOT, CVX, PTT, XOM or JKM is in or out. A SD partner(s) will be selected and others will be left out."

Well said. I agree.

[wapitidropiti]

"Mitsui = CSP funding vehicle option, allowing IOC CSP ownership. Likely Mitsui would only be in this role if JKM were SD partner or EWC scheme is chosen. Does anyone think a CVX or TOT or RDS would plow billions into an LNG plant dependent solely on a CSP owned/operated by IOC? Think not. That SM would own stake/operate the CSP as well as upstream and LNG plant. Mitsui in or out deserves as much anguish as if RDS, TOT, CVX, PTT, XOM or JKM is in or out. A SD partner(s) will be selected and others will be left out."

Well said. I agree. I also agree. It's a discriminatory process. Somebody wins and the rest lose. Three years is too long