Do the Shorts Start Covering Today 01/02/13 ?!?!

[bertl05]

My interpretation, fwiw, is that mid second quarter is likely the whole ball of wax, of which there areseveral parts that have to fal, starting with PA modifications in writing.  This would, imo , put  IOC into a big uptrend that likely has already started, and should last into mid 2nd quarter.  I could buy that, but the stock should continue to discount the above....

Spot on Trans. I heard PA very soon (end of Jan/early Feb) but the bundled SD partner and details will take a while longer (May).

5 months seems a bit excessive since they have the IB's rolling into the 16 month on the job and in the press release they state they have been working on the process for the last 7 weeks, if it takes that long these boys just brought new meaning to the word promptly.

History is a good lesson . How many times have there been timeline predictions since 2008? Answer: Too many. Like me the mkt says...uh huh,,,show me at this point. I agree with the later than sooner posters. The fiscal cliff first voters were correct. There could even be a debt cieling deal before the SD. I'm saving a tiny bit of powder for any re visit to under 55 over thext few weeks, months.

[trans]

On another subject. After observing the weekly IOC option series expirations instituted (I believe early last quarter) I am convinced that the weekly series serves no purpose but to accomodate further profits on market maker written options. I say this after observing too many down Thursday and Fridays since they were kicked off, including the 1/4/13 series. For instance, Let's look at going into today Interoil's
892 call open interest 1/4
1/4 60.00 calls 326
1/4 57.50 calls 202
1/4 55.00 calls 144

put open interest 1/4's negligible

IOC is run up over 61 on Wed, option market maker writes calls to speculators, and the stock declines into today's close or tomorrow. Not a big profit, but another weekly cash cow for the establishment. Who needed weekly options anyway? only the marketmakers, imo
rumored biggest option marketmaker? GS
Who likely pushed this new weekly change thorugh? biggest marketmakers. I rest my case, but look for your self back 2-3 months.

Website in FINRA

[j.coolaid]

can set your clock by what ya say on that Trans....may have to begin hedging some of my own on that weekly "clock work" we're seeing..

[tarulestheday]

can set your clock by what ya say on that Trans....may have to begin hedging some of my own on that weekly "clock work" we're seeing..

Jcool - I recently started hedging my 2014 calls again. I sold the monthly Decembers and the Jans. I don't think the weekly premiums are worth the hedge IMO.

[Libtardius Maximus]

The correct timeframe can be reached by finding when the PNG government starts counting revenue from EA minus 30 months or 2.5 years.

Calio wrote about this.

[bertl05]

Appreciate your thoughts Bert, however, they don't seem to reconcile with this paragraph from yesterdays press release:

"On November 15, 2012, InterOil was notified that the National Executive Council (NEC) of Papua New Guinea had approved a proposal to build a 3.8 million tonnes per annum LNG plant in the Gulf Province of Papua New Guinea. The approval received from the NEC is in line with the proposals from our potential LNG partners. Since then, InterOil has been working with the PNG Government to complete a modified LNG project agreement and to secure an internationally recognized operator of the proposed facilities, consistent with the NEC approval. InterOil expects that these actions will allow it to promptly complete the partnering process."

I'm thinking the "modified LNG project agreement" should be forthcoming in relatively short order, followed by a "promptly complete partnering process."

There has been nothing in the PNG press to suggest discord. What makes you think differently?

My point was that there is still no agreement between IOC and the Govt and the NOC's on the "Who" of it. Yes PNG now will allow a smaller lng plant and yes they will allow it in the gulf at the new location. But there are still unanswered questions and divergent opinions . IOC it appears would like to re inject EWC. There are still parties in DPE tjhat are strongly opposed to that. The NOCS were not in favor of it, and their govts (who ultimately do the financing) were not supportive of it.

No matter the scheme, it takes a fantastic amount of money to get a project like this off the ground. IOC doesnt have that kind of money, hence the need for (and also the reason the govt demanded a heavy weight partner) a deep pocketed player, call it a SM if you want, or an internationally recognized player, its really the same thing.

IMO there is still a push and shove regarding this, even at this late date. Yes perhaps you can hire an operator, but you still need the boys with the big bucks and the govt to bless the plan. There was a lot of resistance to this, I believe there still is.

EWC offers some advantages, lower cost, sooner start up. Is meaningless if you cant get the bigs to give the nod though.

My guess is there are several schemes being worked .....that Phil is still pushing the EWC plan is what Ive heard. Hence I see this "disagreement" dragging, and also why you have yet to see a wriitten PA signed by the GOVT yet.

It should have been done by now unless there were still haggling going on over it, its been several months. ONeil wanted it wrapped before end 2012.

Ultimately I will be very surprised if there is any SD done before march.

[Getitrt2]

bert, this is probably not the thread for this, but I think you're way off base on this speculation about a holdup related to EWC. I'm pretty sure IOC and "Phil" are not trying to push EWC onto PNG or any of the bidders and haggling with any of them about it. All the bidders are acceptable to PNG, and EWC is not a bidder nor a topic of the remaining PA negotiations. On the PA, IOC is simply waiting mostly for PNG to finish making up their minds about the details of the 27.5% option, which is not open-ended, and complete the formal PA documentation, which has been moving at the speed things frequently move in PNG, but could be completed anytime. In the meantime, now that they have the NEC approval of the project structure and location they needed, IOC and their investment bankers are moving ahead with the bidders to complete the bidding process and get in position to make a final partner selection, with the investment bankers probably having set a deadline for final proposals and bids, now that they have the final approved project structure. It has been totally up to each bidder as to whether it wants to incorporate Mitsui and/or EWC into its proposal. Those proposals and bids are in connection with the first phase LNG plant, to be 100% owned by IOC and its partners (not including PNG), and the E/A sell down; and that process is now moving independently of the PA completion and is not being held up by the finalization of the PA, or anything related to EWC. I don't know of any "promises", as some people call them, by the Company or any expected deadline or selection dates, other than the expectation expressed in the news release; but based on what I know about the process and the efforts to push it along, I doubt the partner selection and sell down deal announcement is going to get pushed into second quarter, even with the emphasis on getting it right and getting the best deal. Also, given the statement by the Company in its news release yesterday that, "The approval RECEIVED FROM THE NEC is in line with the proposals from our potential LNG partners.", I believe basically all that remains is getting through the investment bankers the final bids approved by the bidders' executives and BODs for a final selection to be made.

[sfiaes]

"...that Phil is still pushing the EWC plan is what Ive heard. Hence I see this "disagreement" dragging, and also why you have yet to see a wriitten PA signed by the GOVT yet."

I guess that is one way to look at it.

In honesty Bert, I've grown weary and suspect of the phrase "I've heard". Are you repeating someone else's opinion, or do you have access to what I would consider high level information? Knowing Phil's temperament with regards current negotiations is info well beyond what Wayne Andrews would disclose.

This is not to say your remarks are invalid, you may very well be accurate. The use of "I've heard", however, gives them a level of credibility they may not warrant.

On another thread both Ken and Tree suggest EWC is a pawn to entice higher bids.

For all we know, perhaps a SM bidder, facing cost blow outs on other projects is requesting EWC to be in the mix.