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Tree · (This post was last modified: 02-08-2013, 04:48 AM by Tree.)

bird in the hand

"Separately, InterOil announced that it has advised bidders with which the Company has been in discussions that the final binding bid solicitation period for the partnering process currently being undertaken will close on February 28, 2013. The InterOil Board of Directors intends to meet the Company’s advisors during the first week of March 2013 for the purpose of evaluating bids received and selecting our partner(s) for the development of the Gulf LNG Project utilising gas from the Elk and Antelope fields in Papua New Guinea."

This announcement would not have been made without an acceptable bid in hand. Bidders know this and were put on public notice of closing date.

Can the 'two in the bush' be worth more than the bid bird in hand??

Toot Toot

trans · 02-08-2013, 05:34 AM

They say, always examine the paradox. IOC, imo, is pretty close to moving higher in earnest. This time I believe the shorts are going to feel the paradox of their position, as bandit long money pools are watching a tasty tidbit come into focus. What an opportunity to raid a bunch of short money pools. The shorts will feel the fury ahead. I can't wait to watch.....

ebster123 · 02-08-2013, 05:36 AM

So much for the low ball bids the dopes on YAZZOOO are talking about. What company in their right mind would low ball knowing some other company put in a suitable bid!!??!!!!!

Tusker · 02-08-2013, 06:26 AM

'Tree' pid='17172' datel Wrote:

"Separately, InterOil announced that it has advised bidders with which the Company has been in discussions that the final binding bid solicitation period for the partnering process currently being undertaken will close on February 28, 2013. The InterOil Board of Directors intends to meet the Company’s advisors during the first week of March 2013 for the purpose of evaluating bids received and selecting our partner(s) for the development of the Gulf LNG Project utilising gas from the Elk and Antelope fields in Papua New Guinea."

This announcement would not have been made without an acceptable bid in hand. Bidders know this and were put on public notice of closing date.

Can the 'two in the bush' be worth more than the bid bird in hand??

Toot Toot

Forgive me Father Murphy... for I have sinned. I posted on Yazoo and worry my soul will be stranded.

May I make a deal? Trade you a case of Dom for a barrel of rum?

Please return reply on infra-sound wave.

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Palm · 02-08-2013, 06:40 AM

There were "doubts" with some bidders on the continuity of Ant and this was used by some bidders to try and lowball the bidding. Ant3 blew those doubts/excuses away and has allowed IOC to tell bidders that we have an acceptable (to us and the government) bid on the table. If you really want in on this, you have until Feb 28th to submit an equal or better bid which is approved by your BOD as we will be selecting the winning bidder(s) immediately after we meet with our IB advisors. Dance separately or dance together, but the last dance and last call is Feb 28th.

Tusker · 02-08-2013, 03:59 PM

'Palm' pid='17176' datel Wrote:There were "doubts" with some bidders on the continuity of Ant and this was used by some bidders to try and lowball the bidding. Ant3 blew those doubts/excuses away and has allowed IOC to tell bidders that we have an acceptable (to us and the government) bid on the table. If you really want in on this, you have until Feb 28th to submit an equal or better bid which is approved by your BOD as we will be selecting the winning bidder(s) immediately after we meet with our IB advisors. Dance separately or dance together, but the last dance and last call is Feb 28th.

jft310 · 02-09-2013, 01:24 AM

My take is isn't not over till its over. That means simply that yes Feb 28th is firm and they will select a winner. Understand that starts the action. The losers will offer to buy all of IOC for an even greater price.
Example(insert any super major) assume Total is selected and they announce a deal for a 35% interest in E/A. Okay that means Exxon lost and they need the NG IOC has found for their project well then Exxon will offer to buy all of IOC for an even greater price and buy the Total deal and all of IOC. The JKM complex can't afford to lose.So interchange the bidders names above. The sell down puts IOC in play for the BIG boys.

CAC · 02-09-2013, 02:10 AM

My take is isn't not over till its over. That means simply that yes Feb 28th is firm and they will select a winner. Understand that starts the action. The losers will offer to buy all of IOC for an even greater price. Example(insert any super major) assume Total is selected and they announce a deal for a 35% interest in E/A. Okay that means Exxon lost and they need the NG IOC has found for their project well then Exxon will offer to buy all of IOC for an even greater price and buy the Total deal and all of IOC. The JKM complex can't afford to lose.So interchange the bidders names above. The sell down puts IOC in play for the BIG boys.

I'd like to better understand this theory. I assumed a buyout would be more likely to occur BEFORE a selldown deal is finalized. Wouldn't a potential buyer want all of the assets to themselves? That won't happen after a selldown. They potential buyer would be bound by the contracts between IOC and the new selldown partner...which would diminish the buyer's gas; require them to "be partners" to some degree with the selected operator (possibly a rival); and diminsh their control over certain aspects of the project (which could likely be set out in the sell-down/partnership contracts). If a major wants to buy IOC it seems to me they would try to do it now...not after a sell-down. What am I missing?

Palm · 02-09-2013, 02:16 AM

Only a non-bidder can launch a takeover before the "winner" is announced. I think JFT's theory is that a bidder is more likely to want to buy IOC because they already have all of the data and know the government's intentions. These majors partner all the time on these projects to spread risk. A current bidder though must wait until the "final bidding deadline" has passed and the winner(s) is/are selected before they can try and buy IOC out. That's unless an outsider launches a buyout. Then IOC can release bidders to take part in the buyout attempt.

CAC · 02-09-2013, 02:26 AM

Only a non-bidder can launch a takeover before the "winner" is announced. I think JFT's theory is that a bidder is more likely to want to buy IOC because they already have all of the data and know the government's intentions. These majors partner all the time on these projects to spread risk. A current bidder though must wait until the "final bidding deadline" has passed and the winner(s) is/are selected before they can try and buy IOC out. That's unless an outsider launches a buyout. Then IOC can release bidders to take part in the buyout attempt.

Isn't that just for a hostile bid? With the poison pill I would think a takeover might be via straightforward offer to be agreed upon by the IOC Board. Why wouldn't a major just make the offer now...rather than making it after they are locked in with players and terms that they may or may not want?

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