Winning Bidder?!

[ltinvest]

While Interoil will meet with their Investment Bankers to select their partner for Elk/Antelope, why don't we put our due diligence to work and see if we can predict the ultimate winner. Who do you think the wining bidder will be?

[Palm]

Does the ultimate winner include someone who might hit that little button like on Ebay?

[dorr9352]

I will put a vote in for Total.

[ltinvest]

Interesting. We're starting to get enought votes to identify some favorites. JKM looks to be the prevailing favorite so far with Exxon and Total the other players. That's two Super Majors and the Asian Utility.

[Ass0ciatedPress]

LT,

Great poll but I really can't choose.

Has anyone thought of "local" LNG operators.

Pertamina(Indonesia), BP(Tanguh Indonesia), Petronas (Malaysia), or Woodside(Australia).

I know Woodside is looking to diversify from primary Australia operations, they have already done so with the Med LNG project.

Pertamina is experienced but has some issues with its natural gas internally, might want to diversify to satisfy its Asian customers with a different resource base.

BP, continues to rediversify its portfolio and may be a dark horse.

Petronas, Ken has heard this rumor before, perhaps they too are looking for other sources of natural gas for a LNG project.

I really am at a loss though.

[ltinvest]

AP, It's great you feel there could yet be more companies who submitted bids. I did include a choice of "other" in case I missed someone. Considering how closely many here follow IOC, I thought it would be interesting and helpful to aggregate our opinions who the eventual partner might be. Strong cases can be made for several choices but I see that JKM continues to be the favorite with Total coming on strong. Again, it's great to list 9 companies and have you name 4 more that could be possibilities!

[Poman]

I voted "other". I'm thinking a joint award with JKM as the JV partner and maybe Marathon as the operator. Maybe a couple of the SMs combine a bid of 15% each for 30% of PRL15 and the plant.

[ltinvest]

As the voting continues Exxon is catching JKM as the favorite. Lots of excellent posters with varying opinions but JKM and Exxon seem to be the most likely so far with Total a close 3rd. Again, are these the 2 SM bids? Shell? Chevron?

[Tree]

TOT it is beyond a reasonable doubt - barring a buy-out by an NOC.

Here's why:

IOC will not work with Shell.

XOM will not build new plant in Gulf, only wants feed-stock and their plan whould be to pipeline all gas to PNG LNG and add multiple trains there - Kavo will say no way Jose!

CVX may come in as an investor as their hands are full with Aussie projects.

That leaves TOT.

TOT/OSH leases surround IOC's leases and TOT is going to have an LNG project in PNG - if they can find the gas.  Best time for new LNG supply is now.

TOT needs 4 Ts gas now, they will buy 4Ts of dried  gas from IOC for $2.8/Mcf and they will build Gulf LNG as they see fit,  iPhase I.  IOC keeps condensates. TOT will also Operate IOC's EWC scheme up to 8 MTPA as we come in as 'phase II & III'  JKM will be our only partner/OTer.  Our phases could be running prior to Phase I.  IOC will also sell 4T's dry gas to XOM for their expansion @ $3/M.

TOT needs those 4 T's for a 4Mtpa plant for 20 yrs.  Their expansion plans will be to feed it with future success in their own adjacent leases.  TOT at this point is like XOM, have a plant, have expansion plans need feedstock.  IOC will drill away with PRE and will have 4-6 Ts in Tri and who knows how many more nearby.

If TOT or XOM cannot competitively feed their own plants they will be fed by IOC's fields.

IOC wil have 8 Mtpa plant and feed another 8 - 12 Mtpa production within 4 yrs.

Use or Flushski.

All info available on philstar.com

Of course, all bets off barring takeover attempts.

[Putncalls]

The market is not in Trees world?