I am fascinated to see that bids have been submitted for almost 2 weeks and there are very few rumors/leaks of any kind. As far as I know, we do not even know where the InterOil board is meeting to review the bids. (apologies to those who have told us they "know" the location - I am a little skeptical since a number of those same people have given incorrect information or guesses in the past...) Again, the location is not important - I just call attention to the fact that they are being very discreet/circumspect about giving any details that might tip their hand.
This being a big options expiration week, I would have anticipated a lot of volatility - involving rumors of possible partners and bid pricing. Instead we have had this week a very 'quiet' down week with falling implied volatility and volumes only slightly above the 3 month average.
A few thoughts:
1) Kudos to InterOil and their Advisors for running an above-board bidding process with no selected leaks to taint the process.
2) As InterOil investors, we (perhaps it is just me?) have become gun-shy about bear raids. (I think of myself as Charlie Brown with Lucy holding the football on the ground and telling me to go ahead and kick it!). Why are the shorts so quiet this week !?!? My opinion (which is contrary to some longs) is that they are 'conviction' shorts and are not going to blink until InterOil and a partner give a press release that exceeds the "whisper" number (and I have no idea what the whisper number is - but, I personally would be thrilled with anything over $1.50/mcf !)
3) PNG gov't has been quiet as well - even taking into account the news article quoting Duma's "the 2009 agreement is all we've got" (my paraphrase). Not a lot of detail about anything. The positive has been O'Neil's recent site visit and Kavo talking about the Gulf LNG like it's a done deal.
4) InterOil stock is the proverbial coiled spring waiting for a Press Release...
Good luck longs !! Go IOC !!!
(PS: I voted for Total as the high bidding Super Major. JKM may be the overall high $ per mcf bidder - but, could lose out to the Super Major if the Super Major brings rigs, personnel, and LNG plant contruction experience to the table. IMHO...)