What if inciderr is right? What to do?

[jft310]

If one makes some type assumption and assumes Inciderr is right about IOC having a handhake deal with EOM announcement well then what would/will you do. ??

Nothing we just don'r know is possible??

Will you add more stock?

Use Margin?

Sell puts?

Buy Out of The Money Calls?

Buy in The Money Calls??

If fully invested would you sell some common to finance the options?? If so what percentage???

Just musing I B. I am short June June $65 puts and short May $65 puts and Long May $60 calls all in small way as of Friday. Thank you shorts.Thinking with my fingers is this

post. Busy today but back tonight to read any other brave soul insights.

[Optionray]

If one makes some type assumption and assumes Inciderr is right about IOC having a handhake deal with EOM announcement well then what would/will you do. ??

Nothing we just don'r know is possible??

Will you add more stock?

Use Margin?

Sell puts?

Buy Out of The Money Calls?

Buy in The Money Calls??

If fully invested would you sell some common to finance the options?? If so what percentage???

Just musing I B. I am short June June $65 puts and short May $65 puts and Long May $60 calls all in small way as of Friday. Thank you shorts.Thinking with my fingers is this

post. Busy today but back tonight to read any other brave soul insights.

For me, I'll be loading up on the Jan 14 60 or 65 calls.

[ArtM72]

My only calls will be recalls of other times where we all knew the sell down was just around the corner. How many threads of optimism have we read these past few days that started weeks, months, even years ago?

Granted, I don't plan to get rich here, only hope to get very comfortable. My question is how to structure my exit strategy.

[Tree]

Not an 'if' stock since the day the IB's were hired.
It has been a 'when' stock since Oct. 2011.
The 'when' is the only thing the market is interested in.
Shorts agree there is a 'when' they tell us the deal will suck.
They are sorely wrong. Management now has the ST vision of way forward and it is ST.
Buy common.

[jft310]

For those doing short term calls the risk is well just higher. It buying a short call like a May option one could sell a higher strike call in June to help pay for the May call. Example sell a June $65 put, sell a June $90 call and buy a May $60 call. Or collect $14.40 in premium from from the sales and buy the call for $15. Timing is important to making money in options. Trade needs to be unwound at the right time. Just some thoughts.

[will2bgreat]

If one makes some type assumption and assumes Inciderr is right about IOC having a handhake deal with EOM announcement well then what would/will you do. ??

Nothing we just don'r know is possible??

Will you add more stock?

Use Margin?

Sell puts?

Buy Out of The Money Calls?

Buy in The Money Calls??

If fully invested would you sell some common to finance the options?? If so what percentage???

Just musing I B. I am short June June $65 puts and short May $65 puts and Long May $60 calls all in small way as of Friday. Thank you shorts.Thinking with my fingers is this

post. Busy today but back tonight to read any other brave soul insights.

JTF, trying to time IOC is like trying to catch a knife; very dangerous.

I am watching the options daily and looking for large call purchases as a signal that the shorts are covering.  Why?

Clearly with the news of Petromin being dismantled was a positive; and one that I thought we would see some short covering.  But in fact, I think we are going to see on the next published release that the short number has gone up again.  Why?

If you watch the trading patterns for the day in general terms, you used to see the price would move down on low volume when no one was buying.  But the past 2 weeks, and especially last week, I saw stock price drops on large volumes move the stock down in price.  This is caused by large sell orders and I don't think alot of longs were selling at this point.  Hence more shares were being shorted.

In addition, the shorts should have been scared with the lose of information from Petromin, but they clearly were not.  Why?

The shorts have always had faster information than we have had, and they have almost $1B short.  This tells me they still feel very confortable with their additional information sources; still in place.  With all of this money short, from some very powerful investors, I do not believe the game is over.  In fact, I think the game has just begun.  I freely expect some short attacks in the coming weeks and therefore am concerned about trading options in IOC.

What I am doing is watching the call options volume daily, and when I see a significant increase, I will bet the house on IOC with in the money calls.  Until then, optons trading is just to dangerouse with IOC.  But a relatively risk free investment that I have made in IOC is investing in the Well Fargo Small Advantage fund that holds 7% of the fund in IOC stock.  When IOC takes off, the fund should do very well, and this investment is relative risk free.

Just the thoughts of a less experienced/less sophisticated investor, good luck longs.

[ebster123]

Will, WF is an investment that may pay if IOC does well, but at a 7% gain compared to the market. It may not if it does not. In the end, IOC is a " play" that may make many of us rich or make many of us lick our wounds but not be poor. If you are putting your life savings here you may be making a mistake. However, if you are following the news and the stock and willing to make a "good" bet, stay long.....time will tell

[jft310]

So I took my advice and sold a bit of common and have been a buyer of a bit of May in the money calls this AM, Example with a strike of $60 in May and you pay $14.50 if IOC is above $74.50 by May option expiration after the May CC one would make money. Controls some of the downside with considertable upside with a deal . Seems like good risk reward. My last call buy was when IOC was $57 and we bought the March $50 at $9.50 and sold them at $26. Odds of an IOC deal with Oil Search even talking about it seem quite high. Break even below $75 thats a good deal I think. I will trade these calls before expiration whatever happens. Do your own DD as always.

[TomCrooz]

So I took my advice and sold a bit of common and have been a buyer of a bit of May in the money calls this AM, Example with a strike of $60 in May and you pay $14.50 if IOC is above $74.50 by May option expiration after the May CC one would make money. Controls some of the downside with considertable upside with a deal . Seems like good risk reward. My last call buy was when IOC was $57 and we bought the March $50 at $9.50 and sold them at $26. Odds of an IOC deal with Oil Search even talking about it seem quite high. Break even below $75 thats a good deal I think. I will trade these calls before expiration whatever happens. Do your own DD as always.

Just curious why you wouldn't pay the extra buck for June expiration? We all know it is good to have as much time as possible with IOC....if it is reasonably priced that is.

[jft310]

My assumption was Inciderr may be right . He states news end of month and this May expiration was after the next CC. And I will trade these babies. Or I didn't need June for the move I hoped for. Allows for another contract May vs June. , right or wrong. Not a lot just a few for fun thus the deep in the money position. Out of the money calls for those that know Inciderr is right and well that lets me out . Trying to find the balance risk and reward. Never easy!!