More than one bidder in play: InterOil

[Justin94360]

http://www.pngindustrynews.net/storyview.asp?storyid=798351353&sectionsource=s0

More than one bidder in play: InterOil

Blair Price Monday, 15 April 2013 IN response to a rumour that Royal Dutch Shell is likely to become the long-awaited strategic LNG partner for InterOil’s Elk-Antelope discoveries in Papua New Guinea, InterOil revealed that negotiations are continuing with “more than one bidder”. "> InterOil's Antelope-2 well flowed 705 million cubic feet of gas per day and yielded 11,200 barrels of condensate per day in late 2009 Citing undisclosed sources, Upstream recently reported that InterOil was on the verge of signing a partnership agreement for its Gulf LNG project with “Shell tipped as the likely party”. While Shell did not reportedly comment on this claim, InterOil chief financial officer Collin Visaggio provided some response. “As previously disclosed, InterOil has received bids from potential partners in connection with the development of the Gulf LNG project and an interest in the Elk and Antelope fields in Papua New Guinea,” he told PNGIndustryNews.net. “Confidential negotiations with more than one bidder are ongoing, and the process is moving forward as planned. InterOil will provide further comment once these discussions have closed and an agreement has been reached.” The CFO also clarified that the PNG government was “involved in the process to conclude negotiations and achieve FID [final investment decision]”. The position of Shell in relation to Elk-Antelope has become less certain since the government decided to dismantle Petromin as part of a state-owned enterprise restructure to take place later this year. Petromin houses the government’s 22.5% stake of the Elk-Antelope field and struck a strategic alliance with Shell in 2011. InterOil has flagged an initial LNG development of 3.8 million tonnes per annum of capacity but the successful bidder for the Elk-Antelope stake might favour a different approach. “The development decision will be recommended by the strategic partner and the PNG government will decide and approve the best commercialisation approach,” Visaggio told PNGIndustryNews.net in March. GLJ Petroleum Consultants has estimated that InterOil’s Elk-Antelope and Triceratops fields in Gulf province host resources of 10.3 trillion cubic feet of natural gas equivalent, with about 0.4tcfe coming from the less-drilled Triceratops field. The PNG government is using separate Elk-Antelope estimates made by Gaffney Cline and Associates, which are yet to be publicly revealed.

[Tree]

I bet you a buck Phil's about standing on the end of that string.

[CesiumFormate]

What I believe is interesting is the last paragraph.

Quote

The PNG government is usin separate Elk-Antelope estimates made by Gafney Cline Associates, which have not been made public.

End Quote

Full sell-down announced through Triceratops with an announcement of the governments numbers from GCA could put Interpil through the roof. Pet and others I believe have estimated over 20T's. If IOC is sold down at Pacific Rubialis numbers we will see an asset valuation of 20T X $2.65 X 67% = $35.5, or about $790 per share. If IOC trades at a 50% discount, the value would be $390.

We are trading at $0.65 per share based on IOC legally published numbers, but maybe it is $0.32 on GCA numbers. I have no insight on this. I absorb more than I contribute. This is how I put the puzzle pieces together.

[jft310]

A move UP of $50-100 a share should make most investors happy. Hate to say this the GCA number can't be 20 's. BUT wait grasshopper
this to could happen someday with my dream line up of 2 IOC rigs drilling, 2 from PRE and 2 from a new farm in partner. I can wait so should you.

[Tree]

What I believe is interesting is the last paragraph. Quote The PNG government is usin separate Elk-Antelope estimates made by Gafney Cline Associates, which have not been made public. End Quote Full sell-down announced through Triceratops with an announcement of the governments numbers from GCA could put Interpil through the roof. Pet and others I believe have estimated over 20T's. If IOC is sold down at Pacific Rubialis numbers we will see an asset valuation of 20T X $2.65 X 67% = $35.5, or about $790 per share. If IOC trades at a 50% discount, the value would be $390. We are trading at $0.65 per share based on IOC legally published numbers, but maybe it is $0.32 on GCA numbers. I have no insight on this. I absorb more than I contribute. This is how I put the puzzle pieces together.

Both GLJ and GCA resource estimates support 8mtpa start-up.

Appears the Gov't has a party buying into their stake, the smaller the stake the smaller buy-in.

[jft310]

Best guess we get a sell down of all 3 parties. IOC,PNG govt and Civelli.