Poll: What $Mcf

[Movieguy]

For the upcoming selldown deal on Elk/Antelope, how much do you think IOC will get?

[CesiumFormate]

I think your assumption is that it will be a sell down and not a sell out of assets.

[Movieguy]

I think your assumption is that it will be a sell down and not a sell out of assets.

Yes, that is the type of deal the company has been stating it wants to do.  Could certainly be something else.  I guess we could have another poll about "what type of deal do you think the company will make?"

[Movieguy]

So far the consensus prediction is about $2.00.

[CesiumFormate]

I feel the price will be North of the PR price of $2.85, particularly since there are three majors involved, and PR intimated they may flip their portion for a profit.

[Movieguy]

With 21 votes in, and using the completely arbitrary number of $3.20 for the "over $3" votes, I come up with a consensus estimate of $1.98. It is a fairly well accepted statistical theory that the consensus of polls such as these often turns out to be quite accurate. Let's see how the voting continues.

[johnwgrant]

Disclosure: I voted in the $1.26-$1.50 camp. I will be jumping for joy if the deal is over $1.50/mcf.

The main reason that I am voting "low" is this: the stock price !

I am struggling to reconcile my "the future is so bright for IOC that I'm needing sunglasses" outlook with the fact that the stock price is essentially unchanged from 2 1/2 years ago (when they did their last capital raise). I know that Phil has stated that there is a huge disconnect between the value of the company and the stock price. So... why are the "big money" investors not rushing in to stake a claim on this goldmine !?!? 'tis a puzzlement !

[Movieguy]

That is the 64-gazillion $$ question, John. As I understand it, the optimistic conventional wisdom answer is that so many of those in the know (the bidders and the investment banks) are under stand-still agreements due to signing the confidentiality agreements, so the price can't reflect their actions yet. Then there's those that simply will not accept that IOC will make a deal until they actually do, given their history. Add in the intense short actions, and you have a price of $75. Still, you'd think a few unhindered major players would have the chutzpah to take a shot at a huge payoff, but I guess not.

About voting "low," you may not be the only one. I suspect that many are not voting their "best" guess, but instead their "best guess that will not cause them disappointment." If so, perhaps we will need to add a little to the consensus to determine the groups' "best" guess.

[Movieguy]

With 35 votes in we are showing a very normal distribution around a $2.00 consensus, EXCEPT for an anomalous cluster at the $1.26 - 1.50 point. Is this the effect of the $1.40 Shell rumor or something else?

[Hoosier1]

My recollection - from my RJ rep on a CC at with Pavel & WA; or somewhere - WA stated that it was expected to be north of $2... and wouldn't elaborate beyond that...
FWIW