If ya sell below $200 you will miss a lot of money

[jft310]

Lets state the facts.

Exxon has to be involved in some way, they need the dry NG.

Mitsui is FID ready with a CSP

That means cash flow is 2 years away not 4-5 years.

The stock market values stock off future cash flows. The value of the deal is worth more with IOC cash flows in two years because we have fewer years to wait.

The price per mcf is not the driver. The deal for future cash flows is what matters.

A new CEO with LNG experience brings credibility to IOC

A partnership with a Super Major adds credibility to IOC

The shorts are not positioned for the news and they will have to cover at leat partially their position. They know IOC will move upwards to far as the shorts cover. My math

which will be reinforced with at least 3 new Wall Street reports as all three IBers pick up stock coverage shows IOC will be worth at least $200 a share . With the shorts and

their predictament they have put themslves in could easily drive IOC to $300 a share.. Read the research reports carefully and understand how big this LNG really is and IOC

has wet NG. Add in the wet NG to your work.

The FID announcement might be more important than the deal annoucement. The stock split will help as will the Singapore listing. All to happen shortly after the deal

annoucement.

Key read the the thick research reports and don't listen to the yahoo fools.

[Palm]

Agree JFT. All info that is coming out now is not about the "if". Even the basher crowd is now just saying it's going to happen, but it won't be as big as you think. They've been wrong on everything else and will be wrong on that too.

Not expecting any news today. If we get it, fine but with the beauty contestants just giving their "Here's what I'd do if elected Miss Gulf LNG.", we have a little time yet. Spudding of Elk and earnings date should come before.

[jft310]

The latest update from above is they may list on the Hong Kong exchange. I like that idea.

[Movieguy]

Not expecting any news today. If we get it, fine but with the beauty contestants just giving their "Here's what I'd do if elected Miss Gulf LNG.", we have a little time yet. Spudding of Elk and earnings date should come before. [/quote]

They've been ready to spud Elk for a while, but they've been holding off, and in speaking to WA yesterday, he seemed to be saying they wanted to wait to spend the money until they have a partner.  Earnings would be the end of May, right?  I'm certainly hoping for a partner announcement sooner, but picking later versus sooner has sadly ALWAYS been right.

[Palm]

Earnings must be by May 15. 45 days after quarter ends, but they usually give only a few days notice.

[Movieguy]

The price per mcf is not the driver. The deal for future cash flows is what matters.

Jft, I have enormous respect for you and I think your initial post on this thread makes a number of excellent points, but your one point above minimizing the mcf of the deal is misleading.  The mcf that IOC gets on the deal is the industry's current evaluation of those future cash flows, etc.  Given that so many players have looked so closely and that even now there seems to still be competition means that we should expect this number to be an accurate reflection of value.  I think you are right to make the point that the selldown mcf is the the "be all end all" of IOC value, and that more stock appreciation is likely to occur through operation of these projects, but I think it must be acknowledged that the mcf number is very important.

[jft310]

IOC will receive cash flows for 30 years off E/A. Billions per year in cash flow. The difference in upfront money when viewed over 30 years means nada. Wall Street values companies off future cash flows.As long as IOC receives enough cash to drill and pay its % of the LNG build then nothing else matters. Institutions will build models of that future cash flow and retail investors will look at the price per mcf and get a POP and sell. Then the institutions will buy the sold retail shares and make the big money. Seen it time and time again. Just trying to educate those that have waited for this event with patience.

[Petro2458]

$/MCF should be a discounted net present value divided by gross resource. I estimate that using the low resource estimate, the figure is $1.09/mcfe after tax discounted by 10%...or $160/share.

Regarding timing: I am disappointed that the shareholders here aren't more upset with the timing of this deal and the weak way in which IOC communicates. There is a lot of good stuff happening but this deal is the slowest process I have ever seen. Start holding IOC accountable and quit defending the "facts".

Further...if the deal is as Wayne portrays...it's in the governments hands. IOC has made it's choice and is awaiting government approval. I believe FID happens coincident with the deal news. I'd like a more forthcoming appraisal from the company on the process... But for now we are left to guessing.

[Movieguy]

$/MCF should be a discounted net present value divided by gross resource. I estimate that using the low resource estimate, the figure is $1.09/mcfe after tax discounted by 10%...or $160/share. Regarding timing: I am disappointed that the shareholders here aren't more upset with the timing of this deal and the weak way in which IOC communicates. There is a lot of good stuff happening but this deal is the slowest process I have ever seen. Start holding IOC accountable and quit defending the "facts". Further...if the deal is as Wayne portrays...it's in the governments hands. IOC has made it's choice and is awaiting government approval. I believe FID happens coincident with the deal news. I'd like a more forthcoming appraisal from the company on the process... But for now we are left to guessing.

Careful, Petro, some people around SHU get very angry if you start criticizing management on the lengthy deal process and lack of good communication.  Being in the industry, can you cite other deals that happened faster or where communication was better?

[bam]

Since the amount of mcf even there is up for debate and nobody really knows, i think it's pointless to try to set a $/mcf target for the deal.  We're going to have no way of knowing what that is even after the deal is announced, because everyone is entitled to their own opinion about what the resource actually contains. Add to that it seems more and more likely the deal is going to be for something bigger than E/A, so again everyone has their own opinion about what the prospective mcf in the ground is.  I'm pretty certain that this process isn't using 10bcf at E/A as the anchor for negotiations.  That's part of the negotiation itself.