New SA Reource ARB

[ltinvest]

[quote='Getitrt2' pid='21741' dateline='1367349940'] I don't know this for sure, or course, but I'm beginning to think we are down to a final battle/bidding war between Exxon and Total. Maybe PNG wants both and both will end up in a deal somehow. On the other hand, maybe neither thinks there is room for the other!

I am hearing the same thing, that it is down to a bidding war between Exxon and Total.  I would have to think that PNG wants another major involved so Exxon does not have so much power, but as to whether they will insist upon it is another matter.  Can Exxon offer PNG assurances so that it need not fear domination?  Does PNG have a stick it can wield on Exxon if it is too beligerent?  I think Exxon wants the resource more than anyone else, as today's SA article wstrongly supports, so  WHEN will IOC/PNG decide?!

First, great job ResourceArb.  It is refreshing to read a well thoughtout and knowledgeable writer of an article on Interoil.  I am hearing the same type of thing.  It is a competitive bidding situation, the pot is getting sweetened and there is no reason for Interoill to artificially end the process while the deal is improving.  I also think its more complex than just a sell down of E/A.  IMHO it involves 3 and possibly 4 things:

1) E/A Sell Down and Gulf LNG partner

2) Gas sold to PNG LNG

3) Farm-In Agreement(s)

and 4) Off takes

And I'm ignoring the CSP here.  It's time to wrap this up but I think we're going to like the final outcome.

P.S. Final decision is not in the hands of PNG Govt but they are certainly involved in the process.

[Palm]

Not out of the question for Total and Exxon to enter into a partnership; they did it in Poland back in 2011 in a shale operation. Total obviously has some big plans for PNG as they expressed to O'Neill last week. Exxon needs gas; they have a project. The old plan of accelerating revenues by getting the CSPs up and running would be able to play out. Get the CSP(s) built, barge condensates to the refinery and pipe gas to XOM's plant through their pipeline. Develop Gulf Province as a whole and Total is anchor for LNG plant(s) in Gulf. O'Neill mught even make that a requirement for Total to get in. In that case IOC probably sells off more of upstream. Shell will not be silent in the deal, and could be offering to partner with IOC with the approx 30% buyin. Then we still have JKM with a contractor operator, but they have to be willing to pony up.

[jft310]

Cyber - Its about control, Phil is still on the BOD and heads several important committees. Keeps his exec options in play.The IOC BOD

apparently has choices of winners. If someone tried to steal your life's work that you worked on 24/ 7 well thats bad blood. Best to step

aside.

[Palm]

Total has been very wise in PNG. Years ago they expressed interest in getting in, but they've waited until deciding to partner with OSH in the Gulf of Papua and other licenses around IOC's. They know what's there may not be great, but if they can combine it with a chuck of IOC's licenses, they could control the best license areas in PNG potentially. So last week they went to O'Neill and expressed that they are VERY interested in what they are doing with OSH, but also want to do more. Why partner with OSH in the first place? Probably the same reason Exxon did. OSH as a partner is a big carrot for the PNG government. They own 17.56% of OSH, so anything that benefits OSH benefits the government. Total understands that and could make the play that the combination of Total, OSH and IOC would be nothing but good for PNG as a whole. Phil would hate this as much as anything. OSH has been as big a thorn in IOC's side over the years as Shell. The government is planning on unencumbering their ownership in OSH out of the current budget (Arty Somare pledged the government's ownership in OSH to IPIC as collateral for the government's share of PNG LNG. When they bail that out they will want a return on that. Total can best help them out with this, and they might work with Exxon to assure there is sufficient gas for PNG LNG future trains. All can win with that scenario.

[ArtM72]

I don't know this for sure, or course, but I'm beginning to think we are down to a final battle/bidding war between Exxon and Total. Maybe PNG wants both and both will end up in a deal somehow. On the other hand, maybe neither thinks there is room for the other!

As King Soloman famously once said, "SPLIT THE BABY"!  Me(still)thinks that might work in this context.

[CesiumFormate]

Comment to ResourceArb: please don't take offense that I am going to use Adam Gefvert and your name in the same paragraph... But, interesting that ResourceArb has a well-reasoned and compelling positive article about InterOil and the market "yawns" - nothing to see here folks - move along !!! Adam Gefvert posts a "fluff" critique of InterOil filled with nonsense and the stock goes down in a noticeable fashion. My conclusion: Adam Gefvert is a mouthpiece for a short hedge fund (or funds). ResourceArb is just a knowledgeable smart investor. We need a "long" hedge fund to back ResourceArb !!!

I do not believe you can make any correlation between AG's articles and the price of the stock.  One cold day does not make a winter! There is so much manipulaton, you do not have any idea what the net result was.  I would bet that if you look at a three day rolling average vs. AG's articles that you would see zero impact.  If you are a day trader, AG may have an impact on you.  Otherwise, he has had NO impact on IOC stock.  The shorts can minipulate the stock as when the longs are saturated and not selling.  Once new longs come in on an announcement, they are in BIG trouble.

CF

[jft310]

IOC mgt gave out a hint awhile ago . Think cereal we were told. Hummm think Exxon. nope,Shell nope. , Eni nope,Total well yes there is a

breakfast cereal called Total.

Use it or flush it your call.


Itinvest my _____guess_____ at 7:50 PM on April 30th.

1) E/A Sell Down and Gulf LNG partner(could be Total)

2) Gas sold to PNG LNG(Exxon)

3) Farm-In Agreement(s)(Exxon and Total)

and

4) Off takes(JKM)