Playing the Exploration/Appraisal Wells

[AD123]

I know the Deal is the hot topic of the day (as well is should be) but is anyone thinking of how to play the spike in exploration activity?  From what we have heard, the drilling will start in first quarter 2014.  I am no pretroleum engineer but i understand that we will know whether there is a 'discovery" or not within 60 days after that (i dont know the timing of completion of the appraisal wells). I also understand that the public announcement of a discovery will not be accompanied by a prediction of volumes - that determination will take much longer (perhaps even as late as the end of the year).  I have been a holder for about 5 years now and dont remember whether the stock spiked (and if so, how much) on the announcement of a discovery in Elk/Antelope and dont have a feel for what the stock will do on further annoucments of positive discoveries.

My thinking is to trim on the Deal announcment and roll some of it into June 2014 calls (i think March calls is cutting it too close).  Any thoughts?

[smeltman]

I know the Deal is the hot topic of the day (as well is should be) but is anyone thinking of how to play the spike in exploration activity?  From what we have heard, the drilling will start in first quarter 2014.  I am no pretroleum engineer but i understand that we will know whether there is a 'discovery" or not within 60 days after that (i dont know the timing of completion of the appraisal wells). I also understand that the public announcement of a discovery will not be accompanied by a prediction of volumes - that determination will take much longer (perhaps even as late as the end of the year).  I have been a holder for about 5 years now and dont remember whether the stock spiked (and if so, how much) on the announcement of a discovery in Elk/Antelope and dont have a feel for what the stock will do on further annoucments of positive discoveries.

My thinking is to trim on the Deal announcment and roll some of it into June 2014 calls (i think March calls is cutting it too close).  Any thoughts?

It may depend on whether results of appraisal wells need to be released rigth away or not to the public. My gut says no, but that could have been the bacon I had for breakfast.  :-)

If it doesn't have to be released right away, then we'd probably get an update at the next quarterly call after Q2, which wouldn't be until after the June 2014's expire.

To sleep better at night, just go with the Jan 2015's. Less upside but lower risk.