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Morgan Stanley this AM
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01-17-2014, 01:23 AM
Maybe if they find gas in Antelope just north of the fault, they can drill through the fault and PUT them in communication if they aren't already. HA! (I know...not the same...)
01-17-2014, 01:35 AM
'sageo' pid='36221' datel Wrote: Palm- Yes it is the small circle but you have to look at this in the context of the scale of the map. Compare it to the size of whole Elk/Antelope Field. This would in effect extend the Antelope Field further South. They have changed the contour lines between the southern fault and the main Antelope Field to show a much flatter top of the limestone. If this is indeed the way it really looks then the field could extend further to the south. In the previous GLJ maps they had the limestone steeply dipping to the south, which would put the top of the limestone below the gas/water contact. Now they are showing it much flatter to the south so the top of the limestone may remain above the gas/water contact.
01-17-2014, 01:47 AM
Pet, understood and that COULD be quite significant as you say. Possibly why Dave Holland and others have been so optimistic on what PRL 15 could hold, and obviously would be a case for GCA and GLJ to incease estimates. Also obviously why Hession asked for the "pressure communication" clause in the SPA. Is there any way for you to give a conservative range of what just an "expanded" Ant T-count would be (no assumptions as to Ant Deep) using the limestone assumptions you mention?
01-17-2014, 01:48 AM
Thanks, Pet. That could result in a significant increase in the amount of gas certified just for Antelope itself, right?
01-17-2014, 02:24 AM
'Palm' pid='36225' datel Wrote:Pet, understood and that COULD be quite significant as you say. Possibly why Dave Holland and others have been so optimistic on what PRL 15 could hold, and obviously would be a case for GCA and GLJ to incease estimates. Also obviously why Hession asked for the "pressure communication" clause in the SPA. Is there any way for you to give a conservative range of what just an "expanded" Ant T-count would be (no assumptions as to Ant Deep) using the limestone assumptions you mention?
Since this is just wild speculation and with no numbers on the map I think I should not get into the guessing of additional possible reserves nuimber. I would say, if the extension exists, the thickness would probably be relatively thin compared to the main part of the field but, since we are talking about the top of the limestone, it might contain some of the better porosity. The dolomite and high porosity limestone was at the top in the main part of the field.
01-17-2014, 02:30 AM
Very fair Pet and understand. Obviously should be high on the list of the joint IOC/Total drilling program in PRL 15.
01-17-2014, 02:56 AM
So if Antelope Deep is in communication with Antelope then the thickness of the limestone above the water/gas contact would be smaller in AD than in A. The top of AD may even be below water. That's because AD is in the down thrown block at the fault. But whatever amount of gas is proven up in AD, large or small, prior to certification would boost our numbers for the post certification payout at the highest rate.
On the other hand, if AD is not in communication with Antelope then it's a open question as to what's there. It's a different structure with a different water/gas contact, if there is gas. Could be a great discovery or not. But in this case whatever hydrocarbons are there will not boost our numbers for the post certification payout. Damn! I love this business! It keeps life interesting.
01-17-2014, 03:09 AM
'Thylacine-2' pid='36231' datel Wrote:So if Antelope Deep is in communication with Antelope then the thickness of the limestone above the water/gas contact would be smaller in AD than in A. The top of AD may even be below water. That's because AD is in the down thrown block at the fault. But whatever amount of gas is proven up in AD, large or small, prior to certification would boost our numbers for the post certification payout at the highest rate. On the other hand, if AD is not in communication with Antelope then it's a open question as to what's there. It's a different structure with a different water/gas contact, if there is gas. Could be a great discovery or not. But in this case whatever hydrocarbons are there will not boost our numbers for the post certification payout. Damn! I love this business! It keeps life interesting. Thy- A cautionary statement. All of my comments are about the Antelope Field on the North side of the fault. The part north of the fault may be in communication with the main Antelope Field. I am assuming that the Antelope Deep will be below the Antelope gas/water contact and it will be an exploration play and will not be in communication with Antelope.
01-17-2014, 03:16 AM
'petrengr1' pid='36228' datel Wrote: Pet- My apology for the reef question yesterday.Not thinking about just where the fault was located,I guess.I must have left my brain at home when I left that day! Thank you and Palm et al for the good discussion on the antelope extension possibilities.
01-17-2014, 03:45 AM
Pet, if AD is below the A gas-water contact, why is AD potentially such a good exploration play? Because of a much lower gas-water contact in AD or a large perceived formation deeper below the water?
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