What I think. FWIW

[petrengr1]

My thoughts about the geology in this area are probably no better than anyone else’s but I will give you a few thoughts to consider.

What do we need to be successful?
1. A source rock for generation of hydrocarbons. We know we have this based on the presence of gas at Elk/Antelope, Triceratops, Kuru and oil at Puri-1 and Moose and oil and gas seeps. Also many other wells in the Gulf region such as Pandora, Uramu etc.

2. A path for the gas/oil to migrate from the source rock to the potential reservoir rock. We are in the over thrust zone in our area of operation. This means there are many faults and fractures through the rock to allow hydrocarbons to migrate toward the surface and be contained in any traps that are present between the source rock and the surface.

 For example look at Kina’s presentation at http://tinyurl.com/kmltv5s slide 5.

3. We need reservoir rock and a trap. We know we have a carbonate rock that is capable of being a reservoir rock. In some or even most of the places this carbonate rock is low porosity fractured limestone. In some places we believe we have reefs built up on the top of a limestone platform. These reefs, if we can find them in a trap setting, are likely to contain hydrocarbons within higher porosity rock. These carbonates have a shale on top of them to seal the reservoir at the top. So we use gravity and magnetic surveys to locate possible structures or traps and then we enhance or evaluate this data by using 2-D seismic. Sometimes we see what appears to be a trap that could contain hydrocarbons. This could just be a high spot or anticline or it may be a fault bound trap that contains the hydrocarbons. This massive carbonate rock in our area is more than 4,000 feet thick in some areas. So there is no shortage of reservoir rock but we do need to find the reefs or at least limestone with enough matrix porosity for hydrocarbon storage. IOC has been using about 2 - 3% porosity as a lower end cut off for reservoir rock. Some areas have averaged  +/- 6% with some zones having porosity up to 14 - 20% porosity. If we ever find a really good reef we should see porosity of 20% or more.

We know that we are in a gas prone area with a couple of indications of oil at Puri-1 and Moose-1 and 2. It is most likely that we will find gas in these carbonates if hydrocarbons are trapped. We will have to depend on our geologists and geophysicists to identify the traps from their geophysical data. In the early days IOC was drilling without sufficient geophysical data. More recently they have been getting more seismic data before drilling. One exception may be Bob Cat which appears to have been picked from gravity/magnetic data. They are getting some seismic data before drilling but none has been made public to date. We could have probably used some additional seismic data at Raptor. Of course I make these statements without knowing what all they have in hand.

So what do I think about the possibilities at Wahoo, Bob Cat and Raptor? While we are not drilling appraisal wells we are targeting the same zone in these wells that was found to be gas productive at Elk/Antelope and Triceratops. If these carbonates can be found where an anticline or fault trap exists I believe the trap will contain gas. So in my mind it boils down to whether or not you believe the geologist and geophysicists have found these anticlines or fault traps. With a pay zone that could be up to 4,000 feet thick I think it should be hard for them to miss this.

Let’s look at these one by one.

Wahoo- This prospect has more seismic data that the other two. We started out with two prospects here. They were called Mako and Wahoo. With the additional seismic data the interpretation has merged these two structures together and it in now known as Wahoo. They say the picture is analogous to Elk/Antelope. We may find something different here than we found at Elk/Antelope. The formation will be more shallow than Elk/Antelope. When you are drilling for shallow gas and there is a possibility of having a thick gas column you have to  be prepared for an over pressured zone. The shallow depth makes this much more difficult because the depth does not give you enough mud weight to contain high pressure. So let’s be prepared. Even though this well is a good distance from Elk/Antelope I believe it will contain gas. We drilled Black Bass not too far from Wahoo. They said it was off structure but it did find gas and one zone was high pressure and it required 14+ lb/gal mud to get the well under control. I will give the geologists/geophysicists the benefit of the doubt and give this well a 90% chance of success.

Raptor - I believe they have some legacy seismic data here, some of which can be seen at http://tinyurl.com/khx4yrn slide 17 and http://tinyurl.com slide 12. They also said they were getting more seismic at http://tinyurl.com/m32z6ho slide 20. They were supposed to get a long strike line and a dip line near the proposed location. I do not know what the line marked C92MR01 signifies unless it is an old legacy seismic line. That was last November. They should have the new data by now. They will target the same carbonate zone that Elk/Antelope produces from. This is the closest prospect to Elk/Antelope of the three wells currently to be drilled. This prospect is deeper than Elk/Antelope and will therefore be higher pressure. That means a given volume of rock with the same porosity will contain more gas. I feel sure they have more data than we have seen and based on that I will speculate that Raptor will be a successful gas discovery. I will give it an 80% chance of success.

Bob Cat - This prospect lies directly between the Triceratops gas field and the Elk/Antelope gas field and it will target the same zone these two fields produce from. The gravity/magnetic data indicates a high in this area and this is being confirmed by seismic data that has not yet been made public. The new seismic data should be available by now. As you know the location has been picked, construction is near completion and the rig started moving in on Jan.17th. I do not recall seeing a map of this prospect since they did not have any seismic data but I will guess that the prospective carbonate zone will be deeper than Triceratops but not as deep as Elk/Antelope. Based on the location, data presented so far and the fact that we are targeting the same zone I will speculate that they will successfully discover gas. I will give it a 90% chance of success.

These wells are not “RANK” wildcats that are being drilled somewhere in the world where all we have is 2-D seismic data showing that we have a high at the target depth. This area is known to be a gas prone area in the Miocene Limestone which may be more that 4,000 feet thick. Some of these highs may be due to reefal build up on top of the limestone as was the case at Antelope. I would think that it is unlikely that Antelope is the only reef in the area and we just “happened” upon it. When they get around to drilling Triceratops-3 southwest of Triceratops-2 I think we will see a reef with better porosity than we found at Triceratops-2.

The bottom line is this is all speculation until we drill the wells. That is when we find out if the formation contains gas, whether or not there is a reef present and what the formation porosity is.

Best of luck to you if you own the stock.

[sageo]

Pet - Thank you for your enjoyable and very well thought-out post. Your chances of success at these different prospects is very heartening. Please keep up your analytical thinking as we go forward. Regards,sageo.

[kommonsents]

Thank you for your analysis, Pet. It helps to look at these things through the experienced eyes of people with the knowledge to make such assessments. It is much appreciated.

[sageo]

Pet- Just re-read your fine post again. In the latter part you made reference to T-3. When we do get around (maybe months or years) to drilling T-3 to the southwest of T-2,I feel strongly that it will be an extremely good well. If they find the reef ingredients there(fishbones and seashells) the porosity should be very good.If the newer seismics for Tricera shed new positive results,the whole Tri structure could become a "bigger jewel' in our crown! Thanks once more for all you do for our benefit.

[admin]

Yes, many thanks for that expose, Pet. Very interesting.

[ltinvest]

I'm hearing next T delineation well in Q2.

[petrengr1]

I'm hearing next T delineation well in Q2.

I see on the Kina presentation that they also have a Triceratops well scheduled for the second quarter of 2014. I assume it is their tract north of Triceratops. Would be good to get a confirmation well on the northwest end of the field. Maybe this is based on the new seismic data. Oil Search/Total have to drill a well to earn their farm out percentage.

[efi426hemi]

I wonder what it would mean if Triceratops was connected to Bobcat and Bobcat was connected to E/A??  Of course that is 3-5 years out, wonder if some people have the patience to wait that long....

H&H,

Hemi

[sageo]

I'm hearing next T delineation well in Q2.

"Jed"- (ha!) -Thanks for that 'tidbit' of info ! I'm hoping it turns out to be true. I tell all the older ones of our 14 grandkids that with ioc ,patience has to be spelled in all capital letters,like P..A..T..I..E..N..C..E  (They can pay some LT cap.gains later) .GLTY,sir.

[petrengr1]

I wonder what it would mean if Triceratops was connected to Bobcat and Bobcat was connected to E/A??  Of course that is 3-5 years out, wonder if some people have the patience to wait that long....

H&H,

Hemi

Before they renamed the Triceratops Field it was known as Bwata. At one time they showed a map which showed three prospects, Bwata, Bwata East and Bwata West. See http://tinyurl.com/kd32sj7 page 23. I think Bwata and Bwata West is what they are now calling Triceratops. So there may be another high east of Triceratops in PRL 39. Then we have Bob Cat east of PRL 39, Jaguar east of Bob Cat and Elk southeast of Jaguar. Note that they are all on the north and northeast side of a major fault. http://tinyurl.com/oq79egs chart 18.