Timing

[jft310]

The Minority Interest closing should be this week.

The March 30th closing date with Total has some slippage until all 3 partner sit down and hammer out the details. Interoil will have choices ,This will be fully discussed on the CC. Its my opinion it will come down to LNG participation rate and when for cash flow.

The Conference Call may be next week or the week after. They have till March 31st to complete the call.

[jft310]

Somebody don't like this official version above. I just report what I am told.

To me it's all about cash flow when . The line in the sand is 2017 what can you do for us

Mr Exxon , what can you do for me Mr Total.?..

The  PNG govt and Interoil want cash flow quick. Who can offer that?...

To think they have not been talking about all of this already is naive. To think O'Neil doesn't have his fingers all over this

development is also naive.

We as shareholders don't care . Who ever has the highest discounted cash flow model wins . The stories about several months

to work all this out just don't make sense.Hession has a plan . We wait.

[ArtM72]

One way or another you are going to have to get property owners and regional politicians on your side.

It isn't a bad estimate that the additional infrastructure to build the Gulf LNG project would take an extra year to design and build when compared to a third train at PNG LNG. Quite a bit of preliminary engineering and site selection has already been accomplished. Much of what needs to be built will have to be built whether it is CSP and pipeline or CSP, pipeline and LNG. Whichever way it goes though, what needs to be done will go considerably faster if everyone is on board and working together. The sooner the better.

Let's hope Hession sees this and those drill bits will rapidly make the question of either/or irrelevant. The good news is of course the bits are finally working and (somebody please correct me if I'm wrong) with any luck around the first of the month we should hear about penetration of the top of a gas bearing formation.

Best regards,

[CAC]

One way or another you are going to have to get property owners and regional politicians on your side. It isn't a bad estimate that the additional infrastructure to build the Gulf LNG project would take an extra year to design and build when compared to a third train at PNG LNG. Quite a bit of preliminary engineering and site selection has already been accomplished. Much of what needs to be built will have to be built whether it is CSP and pipeline or CSP, pipeline and LNG. Whichever way it goes though, what needs to be done will go considerably faster if everyone is on board and working together. The sooner the better. Let's hope Hession sees this and those drill bits will rapidly make the question of either/or irrelevant. The good news is of course the bits are finally working and (somebody please correct me if I'm wrong) with any luck around the first of the month we should hear about penetration of the top of a gas bearing formation. Best regards, [/quote]

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I assume it is fair to conclude that the E/A appraisal wells will have to be put on hold indefinitely pending determination of the new direction (or pending re-confirmation of the old direction).  The last thing IOC would want is to risk a less-than-stellar drilling result...without first having pocketed the $613M in up-front money.  So I guess all of that drilling has to wait for now.  If IOC defintely preferred the new plant, it makes me wonder why they didn't just find a way to bid $950M to prevent OSH from getting the minority interest and potentially changing things. 

[Brew Swillis]

One way or another you are going to have to get property owners and regional politicians on your side. It isn't a bad estimate that the additional infrastructure to build the Gulf LNG project would take an extra year to design and build when compared to a third train at PNG LNG. Quite a bit of preliminary engineering and site selection has already been accomplished. Much of what needs to be built will have to be built whether it is CSP and pipeline or CSP, pipeline and LNG. Whichever way it goes though, what needs to be done will go considerably faster if everyone is on board and working together. The sooner the better. Let's hope Hession sees this and those drill bits will rapidly make the question of either/or irrelevant. The good news is of course the bits are finally working and (somebody please correct me if I'm wrong) with any luck around the first of the month we should hear about penetration of the top of a gas bearing formation. Best regards,

Train three at PNG LNG would cost the govt of PNG less than a greenfield project and offer a greater return on the investment in a shorter timeframe.  That's a powerful economic argument.

[Spartina]

The big question is can we get a piece of train 3 vs just selling the gas outright to exxon et al.

[Getitrt2]

One way or another you are going to have to get property owners and regional politicians on your side. It isn't a bad estimate that the additional infrastructure to build the Gulf LNG project would take an extra year to design and build when compared to a third train at PNG LNG. Quite a bit of preliminary engineering and site selection has already been accomplished. Much of what needs to be built will have to be built whether it is CSP and pipeline or CSP, pipeline and LNG. Whichever way it goes though, what needs to be done will go considerably faster if everyone is on board and working together. The sooner the better. Let's hope Hession sees this and those drill bits will rapidly make the question of either/or irrelevant. The good news is of course the bits are finally working and (somebody please correct me if I'm wrong) with any luck around the first of the month we should hear about penetration of the top of a gas bearing formation. Best regards,

Train three at PNG LNG would cost the govt of PNG less than a greenfield project and offer a greater return on the investment in a shorter timeframe.  That's a powerful economic argument.

You don't think the PNG government want both?!  Give me a break!!  Why wouldn't they?

[Getitrt2]

The big question is can we get a piece of train 3 vs just selling the gas outright to exxon et al.

No, the big question was Exxon or Total for PRL 15, and that was decided in December.  A change to that is not the latest intent expressed by IOC and Total, and I think a change would require a new offer that couldn't be refused, which I doubt is forthcoming.  Have you heard of any such offer?  Hession thinks they will have gas from elsewhere for Exxon if they want it at a competitive price, and I think that is the way to go.  I believe that is the greatest value and return for IOC and PNG.

[ArtM72]

I assume it is fair to conclude that the E/A appraisal wells will have to be put on hold indefinitely pending determination of the new direction (or pending re-confirmation of the old direction).  The last thing IOC would want is to risk a less-than-stellar drilling result...without first having pocketed the $613M in up-front money.  So I guess all of that drilling has to wait for now.  If IOC defintely preferred the new plant, it makes me wonder why they didn't just find a way to bid $950M to prevent OSH from getting the minority interest and potentially changing things. 

I just don't understandyour thinking at all.

Why on earth would E/A appraisal wells be put on hold pending a decision on the LNG plant?  Fear of less than stellar drilling result ?   Total and OSH just wanted to seem conservative with their estimates and thus not subject themselves to criticism when the final numbers come in.  If/when the numbers come in high everyone is happy.   Up or down, the faster appraisal goes the sooner IOC gets its money.

As to whether IOC benefits or its interests are somehow damaged by the OSH and government ownership the jury is still out and will be until IOC's final % ownership of E/A is announced.  How OSH is going to control anything with a guaranteed minority interest is beyond me, and no one in the past two weeks has come up anaything yet that remotely suggests a method by which OSH can acquire Total's shares or somehow exert primacy over those shares...except by PNG government fiat.

As I said, I just don't get your thinking.

[CAC]

I assume it is fair to conclude that the E/A appraisal wells will have to be put on hold indefinitely pending determination of the new direction (or pending re-confirmation of the old direction).  The last thing IOC would want is to risk a less-than-stellar drilling result...without first having pocketed the $613M in up-front money.  So I guess all of that drilling has to wait for now.  If IOC defintely preferred the new plant, it makes me wonder why they didn't just find a way to bid $950M to prevent OSH from getting the minority interest and potentially changing things. 

I just don't understandyour thinking at all.

Why on earth would E/A appraisal wells be put on hold pending a decision on the LNG plant?  Fear of less than stellar drilling result ?   Total and OSH just wanted to seem conservative with their estimates and thus not subject themselves to criticism when the final numbers come in.  If/when the numbers come in high everyone is happy.   Up or down, the faster appraisal goes the sooner IOC gets its money.

As to whether IOC benefits or its interests are somehow damaged by the OSH and government ownership the jury is still out and will be until IOC's final % ownership of E/A is announced.  How OSH is going to control anything with a guaranteed minority interest is beyond me, and no one in the past two weeks has come up anaything yet that remotely suggests a method by which OSH can acquire Total's shares or somehow exert primacy over those shares...except by PNG government fiat.

As I said, I just don't get your thinking.

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My thinking is that we don't really have a binding deal with TOT at this time.  They aren't going to pay us the 613M and they aren't going to float the cost of the drilling until we do.  If OSH thinks that it will be "an interesting few months" like they stated, then I assume they think negotiations are starting over to some degree.