Concerning today...

[AlphaMine]

For the record I want to reiterate that I believe the initial weakness was due to the sector wide Chinese sell off.  Again as a reference point I saw QIHU, SFUN, YY, etc were down over 7% (4% for yy) on no news whatsoever.  BIDU was down etc.  US tech like FB didn't seem to be doing too hot either.

I think unscrupulous shorts seized on the opportunity and started spreading rumors into this weakness which then lent some credence to the rumors and they shook some people out.  Fear always trumps greed.  I've never been invested in a stock where I have seen so many outright desperate acts and so many obvious lies being spread on a large scale.  For a while it was all the short articles being meticulously timed to market open and places refusing to publish positive articles yet eagerly publishing extremely dubious attack pieces.  Now it's "fat finger" trades and Twitter lies, the level of desperation is obvious; that the SEC needs to stop some of this crap is obvious as well.

Chinese Macro-Market headwinds (which I believe are way over done at this point and will start to reverse in the next couple trading sessions) shouldn't apply AS DIRECTLY to NQ because unlike QIHU, BIDU, YY, etc, NQ has a large customer base outside of China!  QIHU and BIDU derive north of 90% of their revenues in China as do many of the other firms being corrected lately.  The market will have to wait and see of course but the earnings should prove that point especially moving into guidance for Q1-2014.

Plus I'm not convinced that the party is over in China already.  Most of the ERs I've seen, like SFUN, YY, QIHU, are all still very strong including serious YoY and QoQ growth.  Heck YY was showing like 470% YoY NI.  The fear about the Chinese stocks is coming from the Government's actions and the idea that they are basically not going to be as business friendly as they have been.  You know like they may actually let some businesses go under and that sort of thing.  It's not the end of the world IMO.

It's gonna be april in a couple of trading days and the markets are basically flat for the year, where do you think money managers and hedgies are going to be looking for gains??  My guess is that they will be buying up the oversold high flyers in China again.  Where else can they find 125%+ QoQ growth?

And again I pose to you all the question, WHAT, IF ANYTHING AT ALL, has changed regarding the bullish investment thesis for NQ?  In my mind nothing has changed with NQ this week except for the ER announcement which I view as purely positive.  Does anyone view the PR as negative in any way and if so please explain exactly how because I can't think of a single rational conclusion to be drawn negatively.  We know there are a lot of shorts out there who have been wrong and are desperate to get those positions closed out, possibly even feeling more pressured by quarters end.  It's a terrible feeling watching a day like today but it's a worse feeling to sell into a day like today then watch the stock bounce back and know you  were manipulated by unethical shorts.

[TrueValueSeeker]

I am still bullish on Chinese Tech Sector, especially on Mobile. What I see in China, more and more people are using smart phone every day and many companies are adding mobile device into their daily operation. Even if there is some slow down in Chinese economy, I see major correction is in real estate.
Chinese economy is in slow down, not in correction. 7% is still a good rate for China.

Today's market correction is part due to quarter end rotation. In two weeks, earning season will see different pictures.

[Haggerston]

Agree. Profit taking...all momentum stocks not just chinese are taken down. Rinse and repeat next quarter.

[admin]

For the record I want to reiterate that I believe the initial weakness was due to the sector wide Chinese sell off.  Again as a reference point I saw QIHU, SFUN, YY, etc were down over 7% (4% for yy) on no news whatsoever.  BIDU was down etc.  US tech like FB didn't seem to be doing too hot either.

I think unscrupulous shorts seized on the opportunity and started spreading rumors into this weakness which then lent some credence to the rumors and they shook some people out.  Fear always trumps greed.  I've never been invested in a stock where I have seen so many outright desperate acts and so many obvious lies being spread on a large scale.  For a while it was all the short articles being meticulously timed to market open and places refusing to publish positive articles yet eagerly publishing extremely dubious attack pieces.  Now it's "fat finger" trades and Twitter lies, the level of desperation is obvious; that the SEC needs to stop some of this crap is obvious as well.

Chinese Macro-Market headwinds (which I believe are way over done at this point and will start to reverse in the next couple trading sessions) shouldn't apply AS DIRECTLY to NQ because unlike QIHU, BIDU, YY, etc, NQ has a large customer base outside of China!  QIHU and BIDU derive north of 90% of their revenues in China as do many of the other firms being corrected lately.  The market will have to wait and see of course but the earnings should prove that point especially moving into guidance for Q1-2014.

Plus I'm not convinced that the party is over in China already.  Most of the ERs I've seen, like SFUN, YY, QIHU, are all still very strong including serious YoY and QoQ growth.  Heck YY was showing like 470% YoY NI.  The fear about the Chinese stocks is coming from the Government's actions and the idea that they are basically not going to be as business friendly as they have been.  You know like they may actually let some businesses go under and that sort of thing.  It's not the end of the world IMO.

It's gonna be april in a couple of trading days and the markets are basically flat for the year, where do you think money managers and hedgies are going to be looking for gains??  My guess is that they will be buying up the oversold high flyers in China again.  Where else can they find 125%+ QoQ growth?

And again I pose to you all the question, WHAT, IF ANYTHING AT ALL, has changed regarding the bullish investment thesis for NQ?  In my mind nothing has changed with NQ this week except for the ER announcement which I view as purely positive.  Does anyone view the PR as negative in any way and if so please explain exactly how because I can't think of a single rational conclusion to be drawn negatively.  We know there are a lot of shorts out there who have been wrong and are desperate to get those positions closed out, possibly even feeling more pressured by quarters end.  It's a terrible feeling watching a day like today but it's a worse feeling to sell into a day like today then watch the stock bounce back and know you  were manipulated by unethical shorts.

Right on the mark again IMHO, Alfa

[Spacchiusu]

I understand your perspective but coming from someone paranoid like myself I'll tell you what has changed for me. And given the volatility despite wide belief that we are days away from something it seems sentiment has been changing among many other market participants.

Carson block is a peon as is Whitney Tilson, these guys are not powerful in the grand scheme of things, the institutions who went long NQ have much more fire power to squash them if they wanted to, so why are they able to win these small battles? Again, it appears others are skittish and I'm guessing it is due to this lengthy time-frame for resolutions.
So addressing the Press Release from yesterday:
1. They issued the press release yesterday because they were bombarded with investor emails and inquiries. This is indisputable. The question is were these institutions, analysts, and Retail guys, one of those all of the above or what? With all of the rumors swirling you can't blame them for issuing a press release but it's still unorthodox and it appears like a deliberate attempt to stop the bleeding. This almost worked until MW came out with their tweet which for someone odd reason the market took to heart?
-For a while the market started to ignore MW, why did this ridiculous tweet cause the sell-off and a change in sentiment on a whim?

I think the answer is other market participants (bigger players) don't like the strategy they've employed and the press release was inadequate and ill advised. How can someone tell me for sure this isn't true? The fact that MW was ignored for a while, and this broke the camel's back is extremely odd to me. Especially in the face of the audit issue being put to bed..

Addressing the Delay in Earnings:
2. The reason NQ hasn't issued earnings for the bull side case is because they want to issue the audit findings first, right? Or some other piece of news that will be positive. If they announced earnings, then this would start the quiet period, right? Or am I wrong?
So obviously they need the window open. A respectable strategy. BUT, now the question is have they built this up so much that they are going to drop the ball again? Or have we long investors built it up so much that we will perceive this as dropping the ball again?

-I'm assuming others are starting to think this way as well. If they issue a press release saying things are ok just like Tile Shop Holdings did then I can't imagine it being received well, we need more, so what will it be? Strategic investment, or another major announcement? More data points signed off by Deloitte? I don't know anymore..

When I asked what their plan was in releasing info they told me, "Stay Tuned." Well I took that as there's a plan, but if it is strategic investment, they are probably really pissed off right now because someone is going to buy-in on the cheap? It seems that China's deal making is always below market price which I can't understand, and now that we are trading at such depressed levels I'm starting to think that management is going to drop the ball and not take on an investment.

-The problem with not taking a strategic investor is that every smaller company outside of the big 3 (tencent, baidu, and alibaba) are taking on investments. So if NQ doesn't what then happens? Do we question their business strategy? I believe NQ needs a strategic investor, for confidence, not for anything else and they should recognize this and leave whatever arrogance behind.

In addition if NQ is such a hot property then why can't they negotiate a deal at a fair valuation? Because there isn't a precedent in China? I think that's horse crap, and they should be doing it, and if not, then they need to suck it up anyway because this is the dynamic in China and without a strategic investor others are going to cry foul.

You may disagree with me and say the company is too cheap to take on an investment from one of the big 3, but we all want the same things. 1. Confidence in the marketplace and 2. the stock to reflect true valuation.

So in closing what has changed in my view based on the volatility, trading volume, increased distortions in the market place is that it's taking longer than bigger players even expected and thus they are also getting cold feet and are being easily swayed with what most bulls like myself perceive as nonsense..

[sfiaes]

The audit and the earnings are intertwined.

If the audit turned up some weaknesses in their accounting methods, which is a possibility, you would want to fix those before reporting earnings. Right? Otherwise you would have to restate.

It takes time. I'm willing to be patient.