MS on IOC

[jdeo1969]

trans, I think you're right on all counts. I'm pretty sure the market does not know something negative about the drilling the rest of us don't and reflecting it in the price, although there may be some effect from the uninformed fears of some about such a possibility, arising from the delays, referenced global probabilities of 1 in 10, etc. I agree it's probably making a bottom here, too.

I agree Getit.  Too much is being made about the "pps reflecting the results of drilling."  No one knows, and future prospects are not built into this current level IMO.  Analysts state that at least.

Good luck longs

[petrengr1]

As I recall, the side tracks at Bobcat were attributed to the shale seal rock being sticky. Has there been mention of delays at Wahoo?

Thy- I believe MH said,"Wahoo.....late April or early May" (or words to that effect) for some reports. The pps since then is not looking like positive results are coming soon, if at all.  [ not trying to be pessimistic,just realistic ] Sure hope I will be surprised eventually.

Sageo, this may help.......Peteng once said the heavy lifting work is done right before entering formation, in order to control the potential high pressure potential in the formation.  Otherwise the well can blow out, liner, casing, BOP, other technical stuff, but you get the idea.  I figured that stuff was likely 5-7 days work.   So my take is that we are close to the formation by now, despite some delay, and are likely doing the grunt work before attempting to to into the formation.    So likely not a place yet for good or bad news, but close.  Maybe Pet can give his much moore precise thought than my best guesses.     trans

PS, stock T?A is likely making a low area here, imo

Since we are getting “radio silence” I am unable to give a better forecast for news flow than Hession previously gave us i.e. Late April or Early May. As we see we are now past that time period so all I can say is the news is past due.

After they get the liner set above the pay zone and the tie back liner with the DDV”s (down hole deployment valves) in place we will be ready to enter the limestone pay zone. If the zone contains gas it may be over pressured and require high mud weight or, if they lose circulation, they may have to use the pressure managed drilling technique as they have at Antelope.

I have no idea where they are now in this process but if they are now ready to drill into the top of the limestone reservoir it could take another 3 or 4 weeks to finish this well. I don’t think it will take more than a week to drill the pay zone, then give them another week or so for logging and taking side wall cores. If  the zone shows promise it will require testing which I believe they will do inside of 7” casing. That means after logging and coring they will need to install the 7” liner and cement it in place. After the liner is cemented and pressure tested we will be ready to perforate the casing and begin testing. When will they give us an update? I have no idea. Could be after logging and coring but based on what Hession has said it may be after at least some of the testing has been done.

We are now 70 days into drilling this 60 day well.

[Palm]

" I'm pretty sure the market does not know something negative about the drilling the rest of us don't.."

Is that a double or triple negative, and does that mean they don't know what we don't know? Or that they know what we don't know? Or they don't know what we know? Or that none of us knows squat about anything positive or negative?

Just having fun Getit

[admin]

The main items are known unknowns, but there could pop up a few unknown unknowns.

Now say out loud: "One in three works fine with me!"

[sageo]

" I'm pretty sure the market does not know something negative about the drilling the rest of us don't.." Is that a double or triple negative, and does that mean they don't know what we don't know? Or that they know what we don't know? Or they don't know what we know? Or that none of us knows squat about anything positive or negative? Just having fun Getit

Palmster- Thanks for the great laugh you gave me !!! I needed that today....it lifted my spirits. As Pet said"we are now 70 days into our 60 day projection. I will now look to some news in the next 30 or so.

[johnwgrant]

Another quote from the latest Conference Call (per SA transcript): "Progress is good at Wahoo and Raptor."

For Hession to say this, I would infer that they are PAST the Orubadi shale for the Wahoo well. Why? Because, if they were still working on getting through the shale, then progress would NOT BE GOOD at Wahoo. Since this was a "60 day well", how could he say that progress was good at Wahoo if they were still trying to drill past the Orubadi shale?

So, my conclusion is: they were at Total Depth (or close to it) at the time of the conference call BUT did not have sufficient test results to give us any update. If this turns out to be the case, then my hat is off to Hession since I know it would have been very tempting to give partial or incomplete results - which would invite great volatility in the share price and potential lawsuits if the preliminary results were not borne out by further testing. That's my story and I'm sticking to it !!! -- at least until I come up with a better story

[Getitrt2]

Makes sense, John.

[geologydude]

" I'm pretty sure the market does not know something negative about the drilling the rest of us don't.." Is that a double or triple negative, and does that mean they don't know what we don't know? Or that they know what we don't know? Or they don't know what we know? Or that none of us knows squat about anything positive or negative? Just having fun Getit

Does anyone have any insights about what the drill hands may be divulging to the outside world?  Would IOC typically have some sort of "gag" order on what they can say?  Or are they so far out in the boonies that they are currently cut off from civilization.

[Getitrt2]

" I'm pretty sure the market does not know something negative about the drilling the rest of us don't.." Is that a double or triple negative, and does that mean they don't know what we don't know? Or that they know what we don't know? Or they don't know what we know? Or that none of us knows squat about anything positive or negative? Just having fun Getit

Palm, I was trying to confuse you, and it worked!  Ha!  Actually, I think you got close with your last statement, none of us, NOR the market knows squat!!

[Tree]

"We believe exploration and appraisal results are significantly more important to IOC than refining and marketing, which, in our view, become less critical and could be monetized at some point in the future."

That is the significant thought by MS IMO.

Refining/retail made seismic/exploration and uber high salaries possible as IOC grew up.  Now, plans are for exploration/monetizing to bank roll IOC.  This is an important development and the 'some point in the future' may be headed our way.  Bold move to even consider these core operations as dispensible.  I like that, alot.