Irak

[admin]

Just to underline that there are no easy options here, Irak is now fighting Syria hand in hand with Assad and Iran..

Take your pick for undesireable "partners"..

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“To me, that suggests there is collusion or at least deliberate capitulation on the part of Sunni tribes in western and northern Iraq,” Cooper said. “It’s likely that this happened because Sunni tribes in the area let it happen.”

Experts say ISIS totals no more than 10,000 fighters throughout Iraq and Syria, while the force that specifically seized the city of Mosul this week probably totaled about 800 fighters. That force overpowered two Iraqi Army divisions totaling about 30,000 troops.

How did 800 ISIS fighters rout 2 Iraqi divisions? | Military Times | militarytimes.com

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Having just returned from Iraq two weeks ago, my own thinking is guided by five principles, and the first is that, in Iraq today, my enemy’s enemy is my enemy. Other than the Kurds, we have no friends in this fight. Neither Sunni nor Shiite leaders spearheading the war in Iraq today share our values. The Sunni jihadists, Baathists and tribal militiamen who have led the takeover of Mosul from the Iraqi government are not supporters of a democratic, pluralistic Iraq, the only Iraq we have any interest in abetting.

And Iraq’s Shiite prime minister, Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, has proved himself not to be a friend of a democratic, pluralistic Iraq either. From Day 1, he has used his office to install Shiites in key security posts, drive out Sunni politicians and generals and direct money to Shiite communities. In a word, Maliki has been a total jerk. Besides being prime minister, he made himself acting minister of defense, minister of the interior and national security adviser, and his cronies also control the Central Bank and the Finance Ministry.

5 Principles for Iraq - NYTimes.com

[admin]

Actually that whole Thom Friedman column is pretty spot on:

The second principle for me derives from the most important question we need to answer from the Arab Spring. Why is it that the two states doing the best are those that America has had the least to do with: Tunisia and the semiautonomous Kurdistan region of Iraq? Answer: Believe it or not, it’s not all about what we do and the choices we make. Arabs and Kurds have agency, too. And the reason that both Tunisia and Kurdistan have built islands of decency, still frail to be sure, is because the major contending political forces in each place eventually opted for the principle of “no victor, no vanquished.”

Finally, while none of the main actors in Iraq, other than Kurds, are fighting for our values, is anyone there even fighting for our interests: a minimally stable Iraq that doesn’t threaten us? And whom we can realistically help? The answers still aren’t clear to me, and, until they are, I’d be very wary about intervening.

5 Principles for Iraq - NYTimes.com

[admin]

Interesting perspective

The surprising advances by jihadists in northern and western Iraq have produced at least one unsurprising result: accusations that President Obama’s “abandonment” of Iraq is responsible for the catastrophe. Critics have launched a two-pronged attack on the administration’s Iraq policy: They blame Obama for being unwilling or unable to reach a deal with Baghdad to leave U.S. troops in Iraq beyond the Dec. 31, 2011 deadline for withdrawal established by the Bush administration; and they asset that such a residual presence would have proved decisive in heading off the current calamity. Neither criticism withstands much scrutiny.

No, Obama Didn’t Lose Iraq - Colin H. Kahl - POLITICO Magazine

[ArtM72]

It would appear ISIS has run out of Sunni territory and are at the doorstep of Shiite Iraq. The Shiite religious leaders have now ordained 'fight to the death'. It is hard to imagine any good outcome for many years.

Interesting to see yesterday ABC had Paul Wolfowitz and Bill Crystal on as experts with Wolfowitz saying this is principally an al Qaeda operation with minimal Sunni/Shiia relevance. It is hard to imagine two people who have gotten virtually every call wrong in the last two decades being called upon for their opinions by executives of major news outlets.

Unfortunately, calling upon those with a demonstrated and persistent history of being wrong on their predictions seems to be the rule and not the exception in all matters with any political component. One wonders how Americans would react to being told on a daily basis that over the past several decades the Chicago Cubs have been among the winningest of baseball's franchises and are favored once again this year to win the World Series.

[admin]

["Interesting to see yesterday ABC had Paul Wolfowitz and Bill Crystal on as experts with Wolfowitz saying this is principally an al Qaeda operation with minimal Sunni/Shiia relevance."]

Did they really say that? Do they know that the Middle East is being bombarded by Sunni/Shia hate satellite TV. I guess 800 ISIS could simply take over Irak's second city without any Sunni help (see link above..)..

This morning we had Saudi Arabia warning against foreign (that is, Iranian and US) intervention in Irak. Guess that has nothing to do with them being Sunni's..

Go Cubs!

[ArtM72]

["Interesting to see yesterday ABC had Paul Wolfowitz and Bill Crystal on as experts with Wolfowitz saying this is principally an al Qaeda operation with minimal Sunni/Shiia relevance."] Did they really say that? Do they know that the Middle East is being bombarded by Sunni/Shia hate satellite TV. I guess 800 ISIS could simply take over Irak's second city without any Sunni help (see link above..).. This morning we had Saudi Arabia warning against foreign (that is, Iranian and US) intervention in Irak. Guess that has nothing to do with them being Sunni's.. Go Cubs!

Yeah, Wolfowitz really said that.  Others are saying Obama's failure to intervene in Syria is the cause of this all.  Then we have those who state only the US has been in the position to intervene and thus bears the responsibility for this insurgency.  After all, is there any country with a better reputation for even handedness among Arabs and Persians than the USA?

And then we have those who say we never should have left.  To that point, Obama should never had let Malachi insist on trying US troops in Iraqi courts for any offenses committed as a precondition to US troops staying in country past Bush's agreed upon withdrawl date.

Watching these guys on TV is like having one's set permanently tuned to a movie loop playing "Dumb and Dumber".

[admin]

Well, everybody sees the confirmation of his/her own truth in these developments, there is the power of mental models for you. It's no surprise, it's how the human brain works.

The truth invariably is a little more complex though..

I quite like Thomas Friedman's column on the topic referenced above, but no doubt I have my own mental framework on this..

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Washington made quite clear it wants Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki to embrace Sunni politicians as a condition of U.S. support to fight a lightning advance by forces from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant. Then something unexpected happened: Iraq's Shi'ite rulers defied Western calls on Tuesday to reach out to Sunnis to defuse the uprising in the north of the country, declaring a boycott of Iraq's main Sunni political bloc and accusing Sunni power Saudi Arabia of promoting "genocide."

This Is Not Going As Planned: Iraq Prime Minister Defies US, Accuses Saudi Arabia Of "Genocide" | Zero Hedge

Looks like this isn't going away anytime soon. No political solution in sight, which would be to embrace moderate Sunni's, who feel disenfranchised by the government for quite some time, and isolate ISIS. That's basically what the surge did militarily. Oh well..

On the other hand, it's their country..