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Shell to buy Cove Energy for $1.6 bln
#1
LONDON, Feb 22 (Reuters) - Royal Dutch Shell Plc has made an agreed 992.4 million pounds ($1.6 billion) bid for Mozambique-focused Cove Energy, offering a full price to open up a new gas frontier for the Anglo-Dutch oil major in East Africa.

Shell has offered 195 pence per share in cash, which Cove's directors said on Wednesday they would recommend to shareholders.

On Tuesday, Cove's shares closed at 154.5 pence, and analysts at Citigroup said the "valuation looks stretched" in a research note.

The price is an over 70 percent premium to Cove's closing share price on Jan. 4, when Cove announced plans to sell, although investors were already betting on a bid at that point.

Cove's main asset is an 8.5 percent stake in the Rovuma Offshore Area 1, in Mozambique, where operator Anadarko has found over 30 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.

Nearby, Italy's Eni has also made major gas finds while, north of the maritime border, Norway's Statoil has made a find in Tanzanian waters.

Shell is the industry leader in freezing natural gas into liquefied natural gas (LNG) for export in tankers around the world, and so a presence in what is expected to emerge as one of the world's major LNG provinces is a logical step.

However, some bankers had questioned whether Cove's stake alone would make sense for an oil major like Shell. Big oil groups like to have material stakes of over 25 percent in projects.

In addition to Anadarko, Japan's Mitsui and Indian groups Bharat Petroleum and Videocon own minority stakes in the Rovuma license, and the values of these interests could now be marked up.

Cove also has interests in Tanzania and Kenya.

Morgan Stanley advised Shell on the bid, while Standard Chartered advised Cove. ($1 = 0.6321 British pounds) (Editing by Mark Potter)
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#2
Here is a link to Maquarie report from last year:

http://www.cove-energy.com/communicraft-...-05-11.pdf

Shell certainly aren't worried about FID's here - still 2 years away (without delays).

"The crux of our Outperform recommendation is a firm belief that Cove has now discovered
sufficient gas resources to justify a liquefied natural gas (LNG) development. However, we
do not expect a final investment decision on the project until end-2013 with a multi-rig
exploration and appraisal campaign planned from 2H 2011 to 2013. Our analysis of a
potential development scenario implies a Cove RENAV of 161p/sh ($1.3b). Accounting for
near-term exploration and appraisal we set a price target of 150p/sh."
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#3
"main asset is 8.5% of 12 TCF!!!" Market cap is roughly $1.5bn

"Cove is an East Africa focused independent
E&P company and its main asset is an 8.5% interest in Area-1 offshore Mozambique where we believe at least 12tcf of natural gas has been discovered over the last 15
months."
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#4
Justin.
One might conclude this is why IOC is drilling T-2. More NG!Removes any uncertainty over does IOC have enough NG.My take is for what size LNG operation? Eight mtpa or 10 mtpa. If Knowledge Reservoir is correct and our Pet nails another one then IOC will add more NG to E/A.Using GLJ numbers then E/A is 8 plus T's and Knowledge is 4 T's well we get to 12 T's with a 58% ownership not an 8.5% ownership.Then theres Dave Hollands take T-2 is 2-4 times E/A. We wait.
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#5
This adds even more credibility to the thought that the current delays are IOC holding out until T2 has shown its potential and not one of the SMs. Seems the SMs would love to jump in at a discount before T2 true value is identified. We shall see very soon.
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#6
Game of High Stakes Chicken is my take. Phil has stated on CC x price before drilling and Y (higher) price after drilling. We are drilling.Phil I think is very confidant of positive results at T-2 and Knowledge Reservoir and Pet seem to agree.Phil has 4 aces is my take.
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#7
We drill, who will be happy?
12Ts and production facilities working on 14.5% royalties of sales gas,makes the facilities happy, and SK's KOGAS eyeing plants/operation.
12Ts and upstream owned by upstream partners makes Japex/Mitsui very happy as they eye upstream opportunities.

SM's would prefer to steal the whole thing prior to drilling.....oooops, Shell tried that.


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#8
I agree, however, a SM can not yell call. If the reservoir at T2 is at least as large as Pet and others suggest (or larger) then any SM who wants in has to pay. While I have not agreed 100% with all IOC's managements decisions in the past I agree with this move. Seems like Phil has a very good hand here and he also knows how to count cards. Could be if this were a casino in Vegas they would not allow him to bet anymore!! Looking forward to beginning of March!
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#9
The other point to note with this Cove asset is that it is OFFSHORE. IOC is 100% ONSHORE. I think Tusk said something last night about onshore assets. Oh yeah, they are CHEAPER cost-wise to develop. Now that's worth something, let alone being located much closer to Asia. Advantage IOC!
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#10
It appears to me with a quick calculation that $1.6 billion for 8.5% of 12 Ts equates to about $11 billion for 58% of 12 Ts; is that correct?
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