UBS picked up stock coverage /link here

[jft310]

Target $58 . Risking E/A at 75 percent .Upside to that number . See report.

[wapitidropiti]

Target $58 . Risking E/A at 75 percent .Upside to that number . Will get a copy of report .

I would love to read it. Thanks

[Palm]

If that's true, it means UBS no longer restricted! Ohhhhhhhhh Nooooooooooooooooooooooo! There goes buyout theory floated on that premise for 1 1/2 years.

[wapitidropiti]

Target $58 . Risking E/A at 75 percent .Upside to that number . Will get a copy of report .

I have just read Nik Burns UBS article on IOC and he reiterates the same story as other enlightened investment banks. We wait for catalysts which are forthcoming-SOON.

If I could post it I would.

[jft310]

I have it and its pretty conservative to this person.

[Relker]

The quality of the UBS report is much better than many of the previous analyst reports. In the Bernstein and Macquarie report I missed a propper analysis of the benefits of the future LNG plant with assumptions.

What I like in the UBS report is the sensitivity analysis showing the dependance between IRR and LNG price. However, I do agree with jft310 that the report is conservative. The best case is restricted to a 2 train plant whereas good drilling results including those at tie-in distance counld lead to a 3 train plan.

UBS only investigated the situation for the third LNG plant in the team up with XOM scenario. An interesting option will be to build 3 trains together with XOM. I understand the site is big enough to locate 8 LNG plants. In the past XOM was seeking feedstock for merely a third train because of the limitations of the pipeline. UBS left out the consequences for the Opex cost of the team up scenario. If XOM can blend the poor quality gas of the Highlands this will save sulphur purification cost.

The capex figures represent the cost level of the past years. It is not unlikely that significant reductions can be realized. Steel and engineering prices are much lower. Moreover, the logistic bottle neck for modular building has been lifted a bit.

[jft310]

Using their conservative numbes 7.1 T's they project a non risked stock price of $228 . Not far from Credit Suisse which stated $250 at plant open . More T's ,more trains ,and lower costs raise all the numbers if they develop. I think we get all 3 if we remain independent.
Your fear should be we get bought out early at a nice premium .
Reality it would take a heck of an offer to get bought out .
All past Interoil investors have a nice return on their money with plant open using the UBS or Credit Suisse numbers assuming 7.1 T's . What's your return with 10 T's at E/A and more T's outside E/A ??very handsome indeed.

[Palm]

Per source who confirmed, as of today UBS no longer restricted as to IOC. Obvious but confirmed.

[my2cows]

Target $58 . Risking E/A at 75 percent .Upside to that number . See report.

Very detailed, conservative, and with a clear path to 200 plus per share. Resource confirmation is near-term key, and I like the upside of 4-20 dollars per share for each of the 5 fields outside PRL15. Also, noted any delay on FID only minimally effects the share price. Let’s hope PET is right and we have 10TCF… if true, we’ll be at 100 before the EOY

[Getitrt2]

Here is a summary of UBS estimated current Net Present Values (NPVs) per share (with discount rate of 10% used to get to NPVs) for IOC for different assumptions/scenarios, assuming I am interpreting the report correctly:

Current NPV for 7 Tcfe in E/A and 2 trains with 75% LNG risking and full aggressive risking (10 to 20%) for gas estimates outside E/A at $0.40/mcfe: $58 per share (used as the initial base target)

Current NPV for 7 Tcfe in E/A and 2 trains with no LNG risking and full aggressive risking (10 to 20%) for gas estimates outside E/A at $0.40/mcfe: $66 per share

Current NPV for 7 Tcfe in E/A and 2 trains with no LNG risking and no risking for gas estimates outside E/A at $0.40/mcfe: $118 per share

Current NPV for 10 Tcfe in E/A and 2 trains with no LNG risking and full aggressive risking (10 to 20% for gas estimates outside E/A at $0.40/mcfe: $108 per share

Current NPV for 10 Tcfe in E/A and 2 trains with no LNG risking and no risking for gas estimates outside E/A at $0.40/mcfe: $160 per share

Gas estimates outside E/A are based on the 17 Tcfe preliminary estimates published by IOC. I would consider the $0.40/mcfe prices applied to that as conservative. I am not finished yet, but have not seen NPVs so far for 3 trains.

Interesting comment on the current stock price: "The IOC share price has fallen as global oil prices fall. However, it's worth noting we forecast no production from IOC until after 2020, by which time we forecast oil prices to recover back to the $90/bbl level." That sounds like they do not think the share price decline to the current level is justified.

Other tidbits:
- "2015 should be a big year for IOC, with Antelope drilling, PRL 15 resource certification, and exploration results."
- "We see IOC as a logical acquisition candidate once appraisal drilling at Elk/Antelope has been completed."