High Arctic Energy Report- Upcoming well spud

[Getitrt2]

Getit/ best to read Taureka interview again, he stated clearly sell a/A alone was possible.

I reread the 4/22 "Taureka interview" article, and he did NOT "state clearly sell a/A (sic) alone was possible".  The comments in the article, " "You never say never," said Isikeli Taureka, .... "If anybody comes along and offers a price and it's the right price, then you've got to take it back to the shareholders to make that decision.", " were in reference to the author's comment in the article that InterOil isn't ruling out a possible takeover OF THE COMPANY if the price is right, not E/A.  Later in the article after it stated that industry analysts described the company InterOil as an "obvious choice" as a target, it reported some comments by Taureka about a lot of people being "quite envious", "particularly in Elk-Antelope alone", "probably the largest discovery in Southeast Asia for the last 20 years", much less the rest of the Company.  He certainly did NOT "clearly state" SELLING E/A ALONE was possible.  I do not interpret that statement that way at all;  that's a real stretch.  He is stating what it is about the Company a lot of people are most envious of, the one thing that by itself makes it so attractive.  If you want to interpret it differently, I guess that is your right; but it certainly is NOT "clearly" that, and I did not misread it the first time and think you are the one misreading it.

[Getitrt2]

I think there is essentially no interest on the part of IOC in selling its interest in PRL 15 (including E/A), and hardly any chance it should or will happen. Are you hearing something different from a credible source?

When I spoke to the company a while ago, I came away with the thought that they would sell down an interest in ELK/ANT or just the Gulf LNG plant to someone like Respol.

I can see the possibility the partners might at some higher price later sell a small piece to another partner, like at PNG LNG, especially if it helps with the marketing of the gas contracts, but they may avoid doing even that.

[Getitrt2]

I think there is essentially no interest on the part of IOC in selling its interest in PRL 15 (including E/A), and hardly any chance it should or will happen. Are you hearing something different from a credible source?

IOC already HAS sold down its interest in E/A...under serious pressure from the government.  I am in the camp that believes IOC's true value has yet to be recognized and is far greater than anyone here is currently mentioning.

Let's not forget that NG is a fuel of choice in the future.  Not only does its use generate less greenhouse gas (and other pollutants) per BTU than petroleum or coal but the capital required to employ it for large scale power generation is far less.  NG is also ideally suited for very highly efficient local electrical power generation with heat recovery for process heating AND cooling ("CCHP".   NG's problem to date has of course been transportation and lack of infrastructure but we are in the midst of revolutionary developments on that front.  Hell, the Japanese were even talking about building a DME plant in PNG a couple years back, DME being an effective substitute for diesel and a whole lot easier to transport and store than LNG (think LPG equivalence).  The point is more and more machines are being built to use NG every day, machines that used to be designed for petroleum.

IOC sits on a huge natural gas mine and would be silly to give it away at the prices paid by Total.

I think you've got it right, Art.

[jft310]

What do the words Elk Antelope alone mean?

[Putncalls]

Buying a piece of IOC today makes no sense to me. IOC doesn't need the money. Buying IOC make a lot of sense for Total. They get cheap NG to feed any PNG LNG development they want. At the current market cap they could have the whole thing for what they already owe IOC.

[Getitrt2]

What do the words Elk Antelope alone mean?

NOTHING, by themselves, depends on the context, as I explained.  If that's all you've got, let's just agree to disagree, and let others evaluate what they have.  I don't have time to waste.

[Getitrt2]

Buying a piece of IOC today makes no sense to me. IOC doesn't need the money. Buying IOC make a lot of sense for Total. They get cheap NG to feed any PNG LNG development they want. At the current market cap they could have the whole thing for what they already owe IOC.

WRONG way to look at it.  Total would still have to pay IOC and its shareholders what they already owe for its share of PRL 15 PLUS the full price for the Company.

[davidhmtk]

Getit/ best to read Taureka interview again, he stated clearly sell a/A alone was possible.

I communicated with the reporter on the Taureka interview and my read is that he asked Taureka a standard question and got what to me seems like a standard answer, but to him felt newsworthy.  I don;t think Taureka was trying to send a message to the Chinese or anyone else.  I do think the price will be in the 70's as soon as it is confirmed that the wells communicate ( and they may have a good idea tonight ) and therefore that there will be a $30-$50/sh cash payment to IOC this late Fall, which is driving all the buyout speculation.

[Palm]

Agree David, all this buyout yap is driven by analysts and journalists at at time of earnings reports and investor events, as well as the Shell move on BG Group. If one reads the headline stories on CNBC most any day there are several hypes about possible buyouts. Yet few are true stories. It drives business but not for the companies mentioned. Same old same old.

[Getitrt2]

Getit/ best to read Taureka interview again, he stated clearly sell a/A alone was possible.

I communicated with the reporter on the Taureka interview and my read is that he asked Taureka a standard question and got what to me seems like a standard answer, but to him felt newsworthy.  I don;t think Taureka was trying to send a message to the Chinese or anyone else.  I do think the price will be in the 70's as soon as it is confirmed that the wells communicate ( and they may have a good idea tonight ) and therefore that there will be a $30-$50/sh cash payment to IOC this late Fall, which is driving all the buyout speculation.

It would be shocking if the Antelope wells do not "communicate" among themselves, more a matter of porosity and degree, I think.  However, it is not the fact that they "communicate" that will drive the amount of Total's payment to IOC, but rather the new resource estimates, the size of E/A;  and I don't think comfirming that communication in upcoming days will by itself drive the stock into the 70's.  Perhaps the degree of communication can contribute to porosity information and thereby have some effect on resource estimates, but I really don't know;  that would be a question for Pet or other industry experts. I do agree that the size of E/A is one driver of buyout speculation, along with the prospects for more, the need for profitable growth among other companies, the undervalued market price of IOC, and the kind of things Palm refers to.