Orchestrated Pumping this weekend by someone wanting to unload

[Getitrt2]

Are the MM's trying to pin IOC's stock price at $50 for options expiration ?

Don't know, John, wouldn't surprise me, but I do suspect shorts are working it in conjunction with the options expiration.  Three million shares short is a hell of a lot less than 14 million, but still a lot for this stock, and I think they can still manipulate it given its low volume, which also usually coincides with the current domination of the message board. (I wish the Company would take action to find out who the hell the full-time short basher "avi.morax" is, not to say he can move the stock by himself, but who is he connected with?)  I don't normally give much credence to the many conspiracy theories out there, but I think there's something to this one!  The Q1 report is behind us now, and they can be fairly certain of little or no news or exciting press before the AGM in June.  It wouldn't surprise me for the short share count to be down signficantly more by then, probably a positive once we get past the manipulation in the meantime.  We could use some increases in these overly conservative pps targets the analysts still have on it.  Am I paranoid?!  I remember someone suggesting that a long time ago, at which I responded, "Probably so, but that doesn't mean they aren't really after me!".  HA!  I take comfort in believing more than ever we will win in the long term, with that positive trend already in effect, and due to accelerate as the year progresses.  The best to all believers.  Spread the word!

[Palm]

Options ladder is pretty devoid of any reason for MM to move pps either way much. There are some calls to pick up if the can push under $50, but kind of doubt that'd be much of a push.

[Getitrt2]

Are the MM's trying to pin IOC's stock price at $50 for options expiration ?

Don't know, John, wouldn't surprise me, but I do suspect shorts are working it in conjunction with the options expiration.  Three million shares short is a hell of a lot less than 14 million, but still a lot for this stock, and I think they can still manipulate it given its low volume, which also usually coincides with the current domination of the message board. (I wish the Company would take action to find out who the hell the full-time short basher "avi.morax" is, not to say he can move the stock by himself, but who is he connected with?)  I don't normally give much credence to the many conspiracy theories out there, but I think there's something to this one!  The Q1 report is behind us now, and they can be fairly certain of little or no news or exciting press before the AGM in June.  It wouldn't surprise me for the short share count to be down signficantly more by then, probably a positive once we get past the manipulation in the meantime.  We could use some increases in these overly conservative pps targets the analysts still have on it.  Am I paranoid?!  I remember someone suggesting that a long time ago, at which I responded, "Probably so, but that doesn't mean they aren't really after me!".  HA!  I take comfort in believing more than ever we will win in the long term, with that positive trend already in effect, and due to accelerate as the year progresses.  The best to all believers.  Spread the word!

I have to say, as I might point out to others, many other E&P companies are also taking a hit today, which I feel sure is a factor today.  Then again, I think shorts like to take advantage of that kind of situation.

[jft310]

The stock price moves when we receive the
Total bucks and the next 9 months look terrific for reasons to trade the price per share higher .
It's taken a long time to get to this position and some need a bit more patience . Stinks royally but it's true. Hession has got us in a terrific position looking forward .

[will2bgreat]

The truth is IOC's stock price was down yesterday because of the lack of connectivity data in the long term flow test.  I don't know why IOC didn't do this test first, but it was a big miss.  Without this data, the short thesis remains alive and the shorts will continue to hang around.

Still patient.

Good luck longs.

[Getitrt2]

The truth is IOC's stock price was down yesterday because of the lack of connectivity data in the long term flow test.  I don't know why IOC didn't do this test first, but it was a big miss.  Without this data, the short thesis remains alive and the shorts will continue to hang around.

Still patient.

Good luck longs.

Strongly disagree on the stock price and where they should be on the testing.  The initial flow testing was done with various members of the JV and the government, and they show a chart from that and stated those results indicate a "high permeability reservoir with the ability to be a prolific producer".  The full extended long-term test program now getting underway "will likely do more than the 1,200 hours of testing already done on E/A", and there are reasons why gauges are not yet in place and ready to go in other parts of the field.  Check out the appraisal and exporation schedule.  What is it you don't understand about "extended" and "long-term".  They intend to do this correctly and thoroughly, and it will be complete before A6 is complete, or maybe even spudded.  A minority of the shorts are still "alive" and "hanging around" doing their thing, but there is no longer any valid "short thesis" alive, except perhaps in the deluded minds of some still under-informed.  Any of our industry experts think I've got something wrong here?

[ArtM72]

The truth is IOC's stock price was down yesterday because of the lack of connectivity data in the long term flow test.  I don't know why IOC didn't do this test first, but it was a big miss.  Without this data, the short thesis remains alive and the shorts will continue to hang around.

Still patient.

Good luck longs.

Strongly disagree on the stock price and where they should be on the testing.  The initial flow testing was done with various members of the JV and the government, and they show a chart from that and stated those results indicate a "high permeability reservoir with the ability to be a prolific producer".  The full extended long-term test program now getting underway "will likely do more than the 1,200 hours of testing already done on E/A", and there are reasons why gauges are not yet in place and ready to go in other parts of the field.  Check out the appraisal and exporation schedule.  What is it you don't understand about "extended" and "long-term".  They intend to do this correctly and thoroughly, and it will be complete before A6 is complete, or maybe even spudded.  A minority of the shorts are still "alive" and "hanging around" doing their thing, but there is no longer any valid "short thesis" alive, except perhaps in the deluded minds of some still under-informed.  Any of our industry experts think I've got something wrong here?

Getit -

I think the only thing you've got wrong (if I read you correctly) might be your implication  that Will's thesis about the shorts' argument about connectivity, however misguided, has no traction.  I think there could remain some traction for the argument at Yahoo even though I haven't been there in quite some time.  Lots of gullible people on this planet with ideas that are hard to dislodge.  There are many others who conclude that if an arguement exists then both sides must each have merit.  It sure would be interesting to poll Yazoo readers on the question of connectivity.

The question in my mind is why they are doing the test at all.  My current best thesis isn't to determine whether the reservoir is connected, but to help determine the nature of the connections.  It isn't hard to imagine that the velocity of minute pressure changes in the other wells due to withdrawls at A5 gives clues to areas of greatest fracture and communication in the structure as a whole.  This information in turn might provide valuable input to the decision of where to drill the additional production wells. Just speculation certainly, but it seems reasonable.

Looking forward next to hearing of the T3 spud, then the announcement of the design selection at the AGM.  That design announcement, whenever it occurs, could move the needle if any design is selected that involves initial construction capacity above 8 MTPA.

Good luck to all....

[Getitrt2]

Art, you may have a point about the effect of the connectivity thesis on new potential buyers or others with a shallow knowledge or understanding of the available information, but a lot of the previous argument/distortion I think related to whether the pressure and flow was durable, although those may be two sides of the same coin. In any case, I don't think they have anything near the viability or effect they used to, probably because of the much greater level of appraisal and results/information now and the management now in place with much more of a record and level of trustworthiness, along with the commitment of a partner like Total. Re. Yahoo, I don't follow nearly as much as in the past, but there doesn't seem to be anything like the criticism/bashing there used to be, now almost entirely from some far out crackpot full-time basher with id "avi-morax", which I don't even bother to read, but who seems to be all over the place.

I basically agree with you on the connectivity testing, although I don't question the need for it. I don't think it's to establish its existence, but to evaluate in detail its nature and variations in it in various areas of the formation, for use in planning for the LNG project and perhaps also in assisting with the new certifications by the resource engineers, reducing uncertainties and perhaps enhancing the estimates they could sign on to. I think IOC management has a lot of confidence in what they/we have.

[Li'loilady]

I believe the conductivity issue is spelled out in the SPA.

[2126]

I believe the conductivity issue is spelled out in the SPA.

You are correct. It is in Annex 2 of the SPA of 3/26/14 (on page 71):

"Any petroleum encountered in future wells on the Antelope Field or its lateral components that is in Pressure Communication with petroleum in the Antelope-I, Antelope-2, Antelope-3 or Elk-4 wells
will also be considered part of the Antelope Field. Any petroleum encountered outside the Antelope Field but in Pressure Communication with wells that are part of the Antelope Field will also be
considered part ofthe Antelope Field.
Pressure Communication means with respect to any accumulation of petroleum, that:
(a) such an accumulation has petroleum bearing sediments which are in direct and continuous petroleum contact with the Elk Field or Antelope Field as necessary;
(b) such an accumulation belongs to the same petroleum pressure regime as the Elk Field or Antelope Field with which it is in such direct and continuous petroleum contact;
and
© the composition of the petroleum of such accumulation is consistent with the composition of the petroleum of the Elk Field or Antelope Field, as applicable, with
which it is in such direct and continuous petroleum contact. "

I leave it to others more knowlegable in pressure testing, like Pet or others, to explain exactly how the current testing regime will compute with these 'pressure communication' definitions in the SPA.