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People seem generally of the opinion that an O'Neill loss will be bad for InterOil, but I've seen little in the form of arguments to substantiate this.
In fact, one could argue that a comeback of Somare Sr. would be good (although perhaps not for PNG at large) as IOC didn't experience any problems under him, these started with Potape and Duma
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I believe the vote of confidence by parliament was a message to the SC, the people of PNG and to Aus and the US that PNG is ready to turn the page and get out of the old corrupt ways. I think the table is set for the SC to say O'Neill cam in improperly and parliament must vote on who should be PM. That should now be much more clear with the vote of confidence. They have too much to do to get ready for the elections and must get moving.
If by chance Sir Michael gets put back in, there is a chance for an uprising that would delay a lot of things. IOC's project change could get caught up in that for a while, but eventually they need that project moving ahead. If IOC does well with a SD, it will make things much easier.
At this late hour won't spedn a lot of time speculating. SC decision is looming in the next hours.
LT things will be fine; that's where my view is.