World Class Gas Resources

[petrengr1]

Are the gas resources that IOC has world class? I guess the biggest thing going in PNG is the world class Exxon PNGLNG $19 Billion plant. It is a 2 train plant and it has been said recently that they have 9 TCF to run this plant for 20 years.

I think we have more than 10 TCFe at Antelope Field. We will get the new certified number four to six months after the appraisal drilling is completed. Most recently Dr. Hession said that Antelope-6 would be the last piece before Total and IOC would select their respective Engineering Consultants to do the official certification. This may slip if they decide to drill Antelope-7 to the west of Antelope-5.

1. So we probably have more than 10 TCFe at Antelope Field and that is enough gas for 2 trains like Exxon has at PNGLNG. (I think we have enough for 3 trains)

On the recent MS Conference Call Dr Hession made the following comments base on IOC’s recent estimates for several of the fields:

2. We have 3.5 TCFe at Wahoo that is enough for 1 train.
3. We have 5.5 TCFe at Raptor that is enough for 2 trains.
4. We have 5.5 TCFe at Antelope South that is enough for 2 trains

We have been saying we need 3.5 TCFe for 1 train so I take the above to mean that he thinks these estimates for Raptor and Antelope South are a bit conservative.

Anyway, if we have enough gas for the number of trains he said, with at least two trains for Antelope that would give us enough gas for 7 trains. If we just stick to the gas volumes mentioned for the fields above that comes to 24.5 TCFe. He didn’t mention the volumes we might have at Triceratops and Bob Cat so we have that for back up plus the other 35 prospects.

So, yes 24 TCFe and 7 trains sounds like world class to me.

I guess the numbers they have been using for estimating the added Net Present Value to IOC at PRL15 are $600-$700 million per TCFe for each TCFe above 7.1 TCFe. That is the $400 million in payments and $200 million for IOC’s share of the LNG. And for expansion trains they think they can make $300 million/TCFe for their share of the LNG. I assume we would expect to make a deal at least this good for all other prospects outside of PRL15.

At Antelope South Total will pay IOC $65 million/TCFe above the first TCFe. If we discount that to 2021 when the payment will be made it is valued at about $35 million/TCFe after the first TCFe. Since Antelope South is in PRL 15 I believe it will be used for expansion trains and we expect to add $300 million/TCFe to our NPV for each TCFe. So Antelope South could add to our net present value (35x4.5) + (300 x 5.5) or about $1,800 million or about $36/share.

I am just an old geezer playing around with numbers here and I am out of my realm, so I invite you accounting experts to correct it as necessary.

[jft310]

PET - the IOC slides detail out part of the TCFE expectations from Interoil's on staff reservoir engineer .
I refer all to slide 27 of 60 date June 9 2015.
Those slides show :
Bobcat at 1.5 TCFE
Triceratops at 1.0 TCFE
Raptor at 5.5 TCFE
Antelope South at 5.5 TCFE
Wahoo at 3.5 TCFE
Antelope undefined . Based on Hession's comments about the ranges of estimates shifting in our favor . Mid to Low etc.
I guess 12 TCFE
Or 29 TCFE combined plus 35 other prospects .
Arun was 14 TCFE as a measure of world class or not in my mind . And GLJ who used those words Elk Antelope is like Arun .
Thanks

[ArtM72]

I like to think of how cheap for OSH and TOT outside EA but inside PRL15.

[freddiekingman]

Are the gas resources that IOC has world class? I guess the biggest thing going in PNG is the world class Exxon PNGLNG $19 Billion plant. It is a 2 train plant and it has been said recently that they have 9 TCF to run this plant for 20 years.

I think we have more than 10 TCFe at Antelope Field. We will get the new certified number four to six months after the appraisal drilling is completed. Most recently Dr. Hession said that Antelope-6 would be the last piece before Total and IOC would select their respective Engineering Consultants to do the official certification. This may slip if they decide to drill Antelope-7 to the west of Antelope-5.

1. So we probably have more than 10 TCFe at Antelope Field and that is enough gas for 2 trains like Exxon has at PNGLNG. (I think we have enough for 3 trains)

On the recent MS Conference Call Dr Hession made the following comments base on IOC’s recent estimates for several of the fields:

2. We have 3.5 TCFe at Wahoo that is enough for 1 train.
3. We have 5.5 TCFe at Raptor that is enough for 2 trains.
4. We have 5.5 TCFe at Antelope South that is enough for 2 trains

We have been saying we need 3.5 TCFe for 1 train so I take the above to mean that he thinks these estimates for Raptor and Antelope South are a bit conservative.

Anyway, if we have enough gas for the number of trains he said, with at least two trains for Antelope that would give us enough gas for 7 trains. If we just stick to the gas volumes mentioned for the fields above that comes to 24.5 TCFe. He didn’t mention the volumes we might have at Triceratops and Bob Cat so we have that for back up plus the other 35 prospects.

So, yes 24 TCFe and 7 trains sounds like world class to me.

I guess the numbers they have been using for estimating the added Net Present Value to IOC at PRL15 are $600-$700 million per TCFe for each TCFe above 7.1 TCFe. That is the $400 million in payments and $200 million for IOC’s share of the LNG. And for expansion trains they think they can make $300 million/TCFe for their share of the LNG. I assume we would expect to make a deal at least this good for all other prospects outside of PRL15.

At Antelope South Total will pay IOC $65 million/TCFe above the first TCFe. If we discount that to 2021 when the payment will be made it is valued at about $35 million/TCFe after the first TCFe. Since Antelope South is in PRL 15 I believe it will be used for expansion trains and we expect to add $300 million/TCFe to our NPV for each TCFe. So Antelope South could add to our net present value (35x4.5) + (300 x 5.5) or about $1,800 million or about $36/share.

I am just an old geezer playing around with numbers here and I am out of my realm, so I invite you accounting experts to correct it as necessary.

ASK YOURSELVES

ARE WE GOING TO LET THIS GETAWAY FOR PEANUTS ?

[Thylacine-2]

My investment thesis is that we are in the early stages of a new bull market in oil. I want to have my capital in stocks which are going to participate fully in the bull market. My time horizon is two or three years. I considered selling some of my IOC in Feb and March and putting the money in US and Canadian shalers. Not doing it is just one more instance of my being hypnotized over our resources and screwing up over IOC.

If the deal goes through I expect Total and OSH to proceed with evaluating and developing the vast resources we have been salivating over for years. The government of PNG will be happy. And I believe OSH will participate in the new bull market, making OSH shareholders happy too.

If the deal is not a go, what then? Hession's plan was to drill and monetize the prospects. But he gutted the E&P capability of IOC. The new IOC under Hession doesn't even know how to drill wells. The drilling program was an expensive disaster and the plan failed.

So what now? Will Phil rebuild the E&P capability if he takes over? That could take a long time. Or would he look for better deals selling the company? I dread the prospect of the deal being rejected and Hession staying on.

The deal with OSH offers a measure of security and good prospects, IMO, for substantial capital appreciation. No deal and the IOC share price will likely collapse. It might be a long climb back up to where we are now. Would the company participate in the new oil bull? Who knows? No deal and everything is up in the air. Maybe the company would be taken over at a lower price rather than a higher.

If I thought the deal was going to be rejected by shareholders I would sell now and move on.

[Libtardius Maximus]

Thy,

I have yet to find the shareholder in disagreement with OSH taking over IOC. It is the price and terms that are disagreeable. Phil included.

65-85 a share and we are all happy. Now. Not a year from now with the promise of a well being drilled that could never happen.

[Kaliboo]

My investment thesis is that we are in the early stages of a new bull market in oil. I want to have my capital in stocks which are going to participate fully in the bull market. My time horizon is two or three years. I considered selling some of my IOC in Feb and March and putting the money in US and Canadian shalers. Not doing it is just one more instance of my being hypnotized over our resources and screwing up over IOC. If the deal goes through I expect Total and OSH to proceed with evaluating and developing the vast resources we have been salivating over for years. The government of PNG will be happy. And I believe OSH will participate in the new bull market, making OSH shareholders happy too. If the deal is not a go, what then? Hession's plan was to drill and monetize the prospects. But he gutted the E&P capability of IOC. The new IOC under Hession doesn't even know how to drill wells. The drilling program was an expensive disaster and the plan failed. So what now? Will Phil rebuild the E&P capability if he takes over? That could take a long time. Or would he look for better deals selling the company? I dread the prospect of the deal being rejected and Hession staying on. The deal with OSH offers a measure of security and good prospects, IMO, for substantial capital appreciation. No deal and the IOC share price will likely collapse. It might be a long climb back up to where we are now. Would the company participate in the new oil bull? Who knows? No deal and everything is up in the air. Maybe the company would be taken over at a lower price rather than a higher. If I thought the deal was going to be rejected by shareholders I would sell now and move on.

I think you have a reasonable point.  Here's the outcome combinations on voting.

1.  White ballot wins (Hession and BOD).  Sale is approved.  Game over as IOC.  OSH uncertainties begin.  Will Hession take over OSH?  IF so, I suspect a large number of IOC shareholders will bail out ASAP.  Is there a compelling reason to stay in OSH given the multitude of other investment opportunities?

2.  White ballot wins.  Sale is killed.  Hession and BOD remain in control.  More shareholder value destruction likely to be done by the pink shirt gang.  Hopefully a better deal is offered quickly.  If not, then it's very bad place to be.  They can't manage, they can't pick well locations, they can't drill, they can't do anything helpful to add value; only destroy value.

3.  Blue ballot wins (Mulacek takes over).  Sale is approved.  Outcome same as no. 1, except maybe we lose more $$ due to the short term change in management.  (Hence the reason to vote for the deal first before the annual board meeting if court ruling approves.)

4.  Blue ballot wins.  Sale is killed.  Phil et al are now in control.  What is their plan?  High uncertainties.  But there is at least hope.  Phil knows how to get things done to pick well locations, drill wells, and find gigantic volumes of gas.  If he does that he'll be starting all over again.  He's just not too strong after that.  But since the LNG deal is a deal, he should be able to keep that going.  PNG,  XOM and TOT are failing to realize that they need Phil and his exploration engine.  He can find the large reservoirs of HCs; they can't.  IT is in their interest to put him back in business.  Maybe they are too blind to see that.

I'm like you here.  For me the worst outcome is number 2 IF a better offer is not made and the sale dies.  At that point it seems shareholders need to immediately throw out the board and Hession.  Not sure what it takes to do that or how long. But who would you put in their place?  See outcome number 4; who else but Phil???? So a simple way to look at this is outcome 1 and 3 have the same end point and so do outcomes 2 (after throwing out the pink shirt gang) and 4, except 4 gets you there faster at lower cost.  No question that approving the sale has the least uncertainties.  But getting screwed under Hession at IOC, only to repeat it at OSH would be a case of "fool me twice.....".

[rjscotton]

Whether the White or Blue ballot wins, there is another option that may have the best chance of increasing the value IOC's shareholders ultimately receive. That option is to file a lawsuit that is successful in delaying the shareholder vote on the OSH transaction until an independent 3rd party evaluation can be completed for IOC's assets. I agree that, in some respects, nothing really changes until MH and the current IOC BOD are removed, but we desperately need an appraisal by an O & G expert that can provide an independent valuation of IOC. It will be difficult for the institutional shareholders to vote Yes for the OSH deal if there is a substantial difference in what IOC shareholders should receive based on an independent 3rd party appraisal vs. the OSH deal as currently constructed. We should not forget that the institutional fund managers also have a legal obligation to properly perform their fiduciary responsibilities.

At this juncture, we have an excellent opportunity to delay the vote on the OSH transaction until a court ordered evaluation of IOC's assets can be completed. After the evaluation is complete & depending on what it shows relative to the OSH proposed transaction, it may then be a relatively easy task to remove MH & the IOC BOD.

I think a potential outcome of having an independent appraisal performed, is that the O & G expert appointed by the court may conclude that the final appraisal of IOC's assets needs to be finalized after Antelope 7 is completed. At that time, the final certification of the E/A resource can more reasonably be determined and included along with all of IOC's other assets into a proper valuation.

The current shareholders of IOC should not discount the power of a plaintiff's position in a lawsuit. It is difficult for a defendant in a lawsuit to overcome the subpoena power of the court. If the defendant were to be successful in that endeavor, it would thwart the plaintiff's discovery objectives.

We are where we are today because Total has recognized and believes in the huge value of IOC's assets. Most of this value is derived from IOC's lease positions. We need to do what is necessary to hold onto these lease positions until Total realizes they need to pay a fair market value for them! It's not a great deal different that what we faced when Shell tried to go through the back door to get IOC's assets. It's just a different, more subtle approach by another major O & G company.

The current conundrum IOC shareholders have is with Total, not OSH. OSH and MH and IOC's BOD are simply facilitators for Total.

[ioc.aussie]

This statement concerns me
The LOW END of Mr. Mulacek's estimate range is WELL ABOVE the estimates provided through our independent resources certifier."
It continues on to say that IF Mr. Mulacek's estimates were to come to fruition, we'll do really well by owning shares of the combined company.

[katytrader]

This statement concerns me The LOW END of Mr. Mulacek's estimate range is WELL ABOVE the estimates provided through our independent resources certifier." It continues on to say that IF Mr. Mulacek's estimates were to come to fruition, we'll do really well by owning shares of the combined company.

My guess is that they are referencing GCA's 7.1 estimate which they cited a few times in the 2015 MD&A.