Very interesting Editorial; lays out Somare done

[Palm]

Couldn't have been more wrong it appears. Somare returned to office by SC. Now we wait.

[Tree]

Never ending twists in this saga.
I'd concluded the worst outcome for O'Neill was a SC loss, a re-vote in Parliament and an appeal process to work through as he remained PM.
Let's see how Parliament reacts.

[admin]

Well, this was always going to be a 'black box' decision (at least for me, having insufficient, if any, background in either PNG law or PNG politics) but apart from the possible upheaval, I haven't seen many arguments why this should be bad for InterOil. They didn't experience problems under the Somare regime, why should they now. The old Somare is still alive and (very much) kicking, it would perhaps be different had his son be instated but so far he's not.

[Tree]

Agree with that STP.
According to Reuters, after the SC decision Parliament again voted in support O'Neill, and apparently O'Neill was blocked from entering Governor House.

[admin]

Hmm, a conflict between Parliament and the SC isn't what we want, but on the other hand, had O'Neill won, we don't know how the Somare camp would have taken that and what they would be able to mobilize. But it looks like your prediction for some upheaval, or at least uncertainty is materializing.

[Palm]

Just spoke to an RJ guy who emailed Pavel this AM. Pavel not concerned; that form of government has this type of thing happen regularly. He feels majors will not flinch. It may slow things a little, but Somare has always been a friend to IOC. We wait and see what comes of all this. LT we are fine IMHO.

[Bincbanker]

A problem if aplicable could be that a SM will wait with signature until next election (A Leader requirement ??????)

[Palm]

I don't think that would happen. IOC has dealt with 15-20 PM changes over the years. Like Pavel said, these SMs understand that these things happen in countries like PNG. Might be different if it were a military takeover where there would be risk of nationalizing resources, but even then PNG would be dumb doing that. They have no way to develop resources on their own. I suppose then they could work with Russians or Chinese, but that's a long shot. US and Aussies would have a fit and jump in to protect the area as well as Japan/S Korea. Fiji has alienated themselves from much aid by having dictator in power and aligning with Chinese. I see delay at worst of short period.

PPS action sure does not reflect much fear of anything bad. Very interesting.