"We are confident we have enough gas for 2 trains"
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"We are confident we have enough gas for 2 trains"
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08-13-2015, 10:51 PM
One of the questioners tried to get InterOil to commit that they have "at least 7 TCFe". Hession insisted on going back to the "we are confident we have enough gas for 2 trains" statement. Thoughts? Is Hession not willing to say "at least 7 TCFe" because he thinks it is a lot more ? Or, is he just trying to avoid getting into the expectations game - and then having to keep 'refining' the number?
08-13-2015, 10:59 PM
My opinion. Give the shareholders the information you have, don't be obscure. If you think there is a minimum of 7 then say so. If you think the minimum is higher say so. Hession said they are presenting information so the shareholders can make decisions, how about some interpretation of the data. I don't know about you but how many people can interpret pressure data coming from a well. Give some concrete information which may excite the markets. The share price is 43 dollars, support your shareholders. 
08-13-2015, 11:14 PM
Antelope 1 dropped .08 psi after a total of 152.9 MMcf flowed. The downhole pressure was around 3,500 psi. Quick math goes:
152.9*1,000,000*3500/.08 = 6.68 TCF Tusker has a butter knife at my throat.
08-13-2015, 11:17 PM
I think he said two trains minimum indirectly (and a train is 3.5 TCF so he said without saying it) minimum 7 TCF and we are hunting for every available molecule because it means 600-700 million per TCF. He has to be careful and under promise and over deliver.
08-13-2015, 11:21 PM
Knoz
Slide 5 shows more reef rock , (more gas higher $) Slide 9 states has 3 key points Antelope 5-achieved higher gas rates at lower draw down pressures than any other carbonate gas reservoir on record(heck of a statement) Antelope wells are at least as productive as the giant Arun gas field in Indonesia , with Antelope 5 as the standout(antelope is Arun size as measured ) Antelope 5 performance will favorably impact the number of wells ( looks like Ant 5 will push Ant 7 to be drilled)
08-13-2015, 11:21 PM
'ArtM72' pid='61661' datel Wrote:Antelope 1 dropped .08 psi after a total of 152.9 MMcf flowed. The downhole pressure was around 3,500 psi. Quick math goes: 152.9*1,000,000*3500/.08 = 6.68 TCF Tusker has a butter knife at my throat. Thanks Art, I looked back at the slides it looks like the pressure started at 3536.185 and dropped to 3536.124 so a drop of .061. Inserting into your equation yields 8.77. I just made an extra 2 TCF of gas.
08-13-2015, 11:31 PM
'kkozkkoz' pid='61664' datel Wrote: My pressure drop of 0.08 psi was the Antelope 1 well data which presumably reflects the reservoir in it entirety. Calc does nothing to reflect condensate equivalents.
08-13-2015, 11:51 PM
Art based on the call Ant 4 has not finished drilling thus no testing equipment can be deployed there . Would increase the asset size .
(08-13-2015, 11:51 PM)jft310 Wrote: Art based on the call Ant 4 has not finished drilling thus no testing equipment can be deployed there . Would increase the asset size . Hession put out the data for us to interpret. With full and immediate conductivity throughout the reservoir and the ideal gas laws I don't understand why the Antelope 1 data is not definitive unless the resolution of the pressure guages at the 0.0x psi level is suspect. y,yyy.yx is six significant figures. How good is that x? That is an awfully important in the denominator. One area where my calc IS wrong is that it doesn't provide a condensate adder to the total TCF. Anybody have that info at their fingertips?
08-14-2015, 01:03 AM
'ArtM72' pid='61661' datel Wrote:Antelope 1 dropped .08 psi after a total of 152.9 MMcf flowed. The downhole pressure was around 3,500 psi. Quick math goes: 152.9*1,000,000*3500/.08 = 6.68 TCF Tusker has a butter knife at my throat. I would say if the resource estimate is that easy and definitive, the engineers could visit for one day and be done, with no disagreements, if they were even needed at all! |
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