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Again from the last USB report:
Still talk about Antelope-7, but unlikely to be drilled ahead of certification in our view. Two impediments to drilling Antelope-7;
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1) the pressure data from Antelope-5 and Antelope-1 already demonstrate these wells are accessing a large gas volume, and most likely accessing gas in the western part of the field. Antelope-7 may not add a lot of additional gas resource, even it was drilled;
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2) the SPA between Total and IOC says that further appraisal drilling can only be considered if it won't hold up the LNG development process. Given the delays in drilling Antelope-4 and Anteloper-6 to date, we believe there is a case to be made that further appraisal would see the development timetable slip, meaning Total won't support the drilling of this well ahead of gas resource certification. We do believe this well will eventually be drilled, just not as part of the data set for the certification process.
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Exactly and have been saying this for months. For mgmt to push this point as a possibility that the other JV partners would want to do has been a bit dreamy. An example of an explorer mentality instead of a responsible Operator and strategic business mentality.
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09-15-2015, 01:21 AM
(This post was last modified: 09-15-2015, 01:43 AM by Getitrt2.)
If UBS items 1 and 2 are true, I agree Ant 7 is unlikely. However, I got the impression that Pet may not agree with item 1, and UBS's very wide range of estimates based on the flow testing so far would seem to indicate item 1 may not be true. Item 2 may come down to how much of a delay would be expected, with some simultaneous drilling, if it does appear to the JV Ant 7 could make a significant difference. It also seems to me that if it were an easy decision, it would already be made.
I think pursuing it might be a responsible and "strategic business mentality" if management thinks Ant 7 could generate hundreds of millions in additional cash without too much delay.
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Ant 7 is bye bye for now; the sooner they can get Ant 4 complete and move the rig to Ant 6, the better. Then use the HA rig that's sitting on standby to move into Raptor or Ant S and nail something big.
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Can any board member explain why we have rigs on standby?
IOC mgmt has stated that we are an exploration company. There is a lot of seismic completed. Sites have been selected for drilling.
Why not let the drills spin?
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'vidon' pid='62923' datel Wrote:Can any board member explain why we have rigs on standby? IOC mgmt has stated that we are an exploration company. There is a lot of seismic completed. Sites have been selected for drilling. Why not let the drills spin?
It's really just one rig, which recently arrived in country, with decisions in the works. There are existing responses to your questions; do some more reading in previous thread(s).
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'Palm' pid='62909' datel Wrote:Ant 7 is bye bye for now; the sooner they can get Ant 4 complete and move the rig to Ant 6, the better. Then use the HA rig that's sitting on standby to move into Raptor or Ant S and nail something big.
The Wildcard (2nd) certification is important and can be played anytime up until 25% of the field has been pumped. IOC can ask for it a year from now, for example, if we think any new information comes close to delineating the field size. I think it is a likely source of cash for our LNG plant cash contributions. In other words, it will be used before plant completion.
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'vidon' pid='62923' datel Wrote:Can any board member explain why we have rigs on standby? IOC mgmt has stated that we are an exploration company. There is a lot of seismic completed. Sites have been selected for drilling. Why not let the drills spin?
Vidon, a couple of parts to that:
1. Decision making. Now that Ant 7 is being kicked down the road (likely for drilling after Certification), the HA rig that arrived in August can have some decisions made as to where it will go. They have been working with new Operator Total and that has taken a little time. With Total in place (taking on everything in PRL 15 after Ant 4) they will move ahead. Hopefully the HA rig will go to Ant S and then the rig at Tri can go to Raptor. Something like that; and then when Ant 4 is done (hopefully by end of Oct), it can be mobilized to Ant 6. Not sure what's going on with the rig that's been at Wahoo; maybe someone else knows or mgmt will discuss on their road-trip next week.
2. Some cash flow conservation. With the move to Total as Operator mgmt has said they will be working on cutting expenses related to their Operatorship. IMO they need to really focus on this in an attempt to keep from tapping the LOC for as long as possible to avoid the interest charges and needing to use Certification proceeds to pay back debt. People keep chirping about 9.5Ts plus, but Recoverable is what is used, not gross. So until we have a much better handle on what Recoverable will be, they would be wise to conserve cash as much as possible.
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09-19-2015, 03:48 AM
(This post was last modified: 09-19-2015, 03:51 AM by Palm.)
(09-19-2015, 03:39 AM)davidhmtk Wrote:
(09-18-2015, 11:36 PM)Palm Wrote: Ant 7 is bye bye for now; the sooner they can get Ant 4 complete and move the rig to Ant 6, the better. Then use the HA rig that's sitting on standby to move into Raptor or Ant S and nail something big.
The Wildcard (2nd) certification is important and can be played anytime up until 25% of the field has been pumped. IOC can ask for it a year from now, for example, if we think any new information comes close to delineating the field size. I think it is a likely source of cash for our LNG plant cash contributions. In other words, it will be used before plant completion.
Do you really think a year from now that they will have started LNG production and be between that point and 60 days after last day of the month where they've produced 25% of PRL 15 Certification of 2C Resources? I would love for that to be the case, but they better get moving! 
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To my opinion, davidhmtk is correct. Nothing says the Wildcard has to be invoked after startup.
The so-called "Wildcard" (Final Resource Payment) can be called for at any time prior to producing 25% of PRL 15 Certification of 2C Resources.
It could be a day after the Interim Resource Payment, or after lifting 24.99% of the gas, or any day in between.
At the moment, we assume that the Interim Resource Payment will be made in June 2016.
If, after additional wells are drilled (A-7; 3 producing wells; water injection wells; etc) they conclude that there is 3+ additional tcf above what was Certified by the Experts, IOC can call for the Wildcard payment of $1,200 Million (3 tcf x 40.1% x $1.00 per mcf).
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