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To my opinion Putz TOTAL is being non-committal on purpose.
I believe they're negotiating publicly with the PNG Government on timing to get concessions.
I think they fully intend to ask for EPC bids late this year or early 2017.
TOTAL still intends to shell out something like $16 Billion PER YEAR on exploration and projects.
Their cost for Papua LNG will be 40% of $16 Billion times 30% (rest is borrowed) which comes to only $2 Billion in CAPEX spread out over a period of 48 months.
That's not much of their expected 4 x $16 Billion CAPEX spend, eh?
What's your next question? You can keep throwing stuff at your Wall of Worry, but nothing will stick.
By mid 2017, we'll all wonder why everyone thought that Oil and LNG prices would remain low forever!
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'Stavros' pid='66708' datel Wrote:We'll all wonder why everyone thought that Oil and LNG prices would remain low forever!
Stavros, I could not agree more. I'm buying $2000/month of energy stocks right now and am not worried a bit. This may turn out to be a once in a lifetime chance to buy energy stocks at such a discount.
Second, thank you for your input/knowledge on this board; you add great value.
Third, stupid question time. I have seen numerous people put up some very large certification numbers; in the range of 10-12Ts. I think you may have been one of them. However, per Pet, Total is testing for a potential water drive which will reduce the recoverable estimates to about 60%, or 6/7Ts. Is the potential for a water drive something that is not a concern for you, or what is you rationale to dismiss this concern? This is the only remaining concern for me.
Good luck longs.
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As Pet said in the past, all the data they have seen points to high recovery rather than low so I'm not worried personally. Nor apparently is Hession who said a long time ago that GLJ's high case of 11.99 tcfe became their mid-case. That was before newer and even better data was acquired.
BUT keep in mind that I've been a chemical engineer for a Long time, and I'm still working because I never got rich enough from my investments to retire. Instead, I'm just tired.
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02-16-2016, 01:09 AM
(This post was last modified: 02-16-2016, 01:09 AM by will2bgreat.)
(02-15-2016, 11:19 PM)Stavros Wrote: As Pet said in the past, all the data they have seen points to high recovery rather than low so I'm not worried personally. Nor apparently is Hession who said a long time ago that GLJ's high case of 11.99 tcfe became their mid-case. That was before newer and even better data was acquired. BUT keep in mind that I've been a chemical engineer for a Long time, and I'm still working because I never got rich enough from my investments to retire. Instead, I'm just tired.
Thank you Stavros, I agree. I'm in the same boat due to some bad investment decisions. If you want to make money by investing, ask me my opinion and do the opposite; you will make money. Unfortunately, I feel good about my IOC investment so you may want to short IOC.
Good luck.
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'will2bgreat' pid='66715' datel Wrote:
'Stavros' pid='66713' datel Wrote:As Pet said in the past, all the data they have seen points to high recovery rather than low so I'm not worried personally. Nor apparently is Hession who said a long time ago that GLJ's high case of 11.99 tcfe became their mid-case. That was before newer and even better data was acquired. BUT keep in mind that I've been a chemical engineer for a Long time, and I'm still working because I never got rich enough from my investments to retire. Instead, I'm just tired.
Thank you Stavros, I agree. I'm in the same boat due to some bad investment decisions. If you want to make money by investing, ask me my opinion and do the opposite; you will make money. Unfortunately, I feel good about my IOC investment so you may want to short IOC.
Good luck.
My thanks too,Stavros, for all you do to help our cause.
Will - I don't want to short the stock now,but even tho' I scratched around and found a "few" more dollars, I just can't force myself to purchase more shares when our "cash outflow" is about 8.3 million per month and the "cash inflow is nada". Will I miss another good opportunity....probably....but it is just to tough to buy under the present conditions.[ Yes, I understand about the future "lump sum" coming up ] , but key word is "future",and that just keeps stretching out further and further down the line ![<img src=]( "Huh") " border="0" class="smilie" src="http://shareholdersunite.com/mybb/images/smilies/huh.gif" /> Best to you and yours.
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There isn't another energy company anywhere in the situation Interoil finds itself today. A multi billion dollar pending payment on a signed contract with the second of the agreed on 2 wells now at or near TD. If the payment is based on 10 T's that's $1.5 Billion or $30 per share in cash , if we certify 12 T's that's $50 per share in cash so "inflow is far from nada"in the near future . Plus another $10 per share at FID. Markets anticipate or look ahead . It's time for that .
GLJ stated they believed we were not a water drive . Even GCA before the 2015 results stated we had 7 T's they and every analyst think we have sufficient gas for an Exxon sized 2 train plant . This talk is based on 2014 numbers and we have a required Interoil update by March 31st . We also has a partner who has scheduled both GCA and NSAI to certify the assets by early in the third quarter which will give the market higher numbers than the 7 T's. Based on the Interoil 2015 numbers and GCA and NSAI certification a pretty good number for asset size can then be determined . If we do Ant 7 the numbers per Hession should be even higher than these previous estimates .
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'jft310' pid='66717' datel Wrote:There isn't another energy company anywhere in the situation Interoil finds itself today. A multi billion dollar pending payment on a signed contract with the second of the agreed on 2 wells now at or near TD. If the payment is based on 10 T's that's $1.5 Billion or $30 per share in cash , if we certify 12 T's that's $50 per share in cash so "inflow is far from nada"in the near future . Plus another $10 per share at FID. Markets anticipate or look ahead . It's time for that . GLJ stated they believed we were not a water drive . Even GCA before the 2015 results stated we had 7 T's they and every analyst think we have sufficient gas for an Exxon sized 2 train plant . This talk is based on 2014 numbers and we have a required Interoil update by March 31st . We also has a partner who has scheduled both GCA and NSAI to certify the assets by early in the third quarter which will give the market higher numbers than the 7 T's. Based on the Interoil 2015 numbers and GCA and NSAI certification a pretty good number for asset size can then be determined . If we do Ant 7 the numbers per Hession should be even higher than these previous estimates .
Thanks JFT for your post. As I was reading it,I thought back to 1953. I was working on our 5" gun on the afterdeck,when our gunnery officer approached. He had in his hand a copy of Dr.Norman Vincent Peale's latest book"Think and grow rich". I asked him if I could read it when he finished and he oblidged. I believe that most of my g-kids have gone back to those "ancient days" and read it. ( I guess it all goes back to the power of " positive thinking'....hope your optimism pays of soon ) At my age now,sooner is better than later. Have a good one.
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They have the assets and now have a willing partner in Total . An Exxon size plant makes money down to $20 per barrel says Botten .
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'jft310' pid='66745' datel Wrote:They have the assets and now have a willing partner in Total . An Exxon size plant makes money down to $20 per barrel says Botten .
Source?
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Well, I don't know whether the Exxon project still makes money at $20, but the info about S-curve contracts was somewhat reassuring. It also makes sense, since these LNG projects are largely fixed cost projects, offtakes should have some floor to reduce the risks. I believe many of these contracts also have fines or provisions that they still have to pay the contracted amount even if customers do not do so.
Which is why these offtakes are so important, and providing they're from creditworthy customers, that's why they're bankable, unless Stavros, who knows much more about this than I do, corrects me.
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