Drilling Progress at Antelope-6

[petrengr1]

Pet - Thanks for your fine analysis of the report . I too noticed they had switched to drill depth.....maybe you are right with "just to keep us guessing".

         True,they did not give us the exact location of the dolomite . You very astutely pointed out (page 17 of the 2012 pdf  showing the Antelope logs), that the dolomite is not always in the very top of the reservoir. I would like to believe,as you say is possible, that we may drill thru more dolomite as we go down the hole.

         As I dream tonight, I hope to see a much darker orange in your "imaginary flame" .." border="0" class="smilie" src="http://shareholdersunite.com/mybb/images/smilies/biggrin.gif" />...

Sageo- It is not my imaginary flame. Look at the picture shown on IOC home page for today's press release and compare the color to previous pictures. Really not too definitive but interesting to speculate about.

[Putncalls]

I guess Antelope is more of a known quantity since the 2009 GLJ estimate. I'm sure the engineers with the numbers are making their own estimates at this point. Do we really have to wait until the OSH GCA estimate is published?

[petrengr1]

I guess Antelope is more of a known quantity since the 2009 GLJ estimate. I'm sure the engineers with the numbers are making their own estimates at this point. Do we really have to wait until the OSH GCA estimate is published?

Yes. No one's estimate counts unless they are an "official" estimator appointed by one of the members of the JV.

[jft310]

Consistently the SPA estimators chosen are the ones the banks rely on to make loans . They are conservative . GLJ does great work , Google David Harris head geologist but they don't have the standing the chosen 5 have in the industry . I would not be surprised to see GLJ replaced this year with one of the chosen 5 and my wild guess is GCA.

[ArtM72]

Let me register my approval of IOC beating OSH to the punch with well drilling updates. I hope it continues.

What is the significance of the the statement in the press release "The well is currently shut-in for pressure build-up."? I would expect that A6 pressure build up would be nearly instantaneous. This statement makes it sound like it might take days to rebuild the pressure. Anybody else wondering about that?

Also, I wonder to what extent they were monitoring connectivity with other wells during the A6 flow test and if not, why not?

Finally, with the data extracted from the extended flow tests at A5 and off for analysis, just where did that data go if not to the selected reservoir appraisal consultants? I suppose the simple answer would be to Total's geotech group.

[sageo]

Pet - Thanks for your fine analysis of the report . I too noticed they had switched to drill depth.....maybe you are right with "just to keep us guessing".

         True,they did not give us the exact location of the dolomite . You very astutely pointed out (page 17 of the 2012 pdf  showing the Antelope logs), that the dolomite is not always in the very top of the reservoir. I would like to believe,as you say is possible, that we may drill thru more dolomite as we go down the hole.

         As I dream tonight, I hope to see a much darker orange in your "imaginary flame" .." border="0" class="smilie" src="http://shareholdersunite.com/mybb/images/smilies/biggrin.gif" />...

Sageo- It is not my imaginary flame. Look at the picture shown on IOC home page for today's press release and compare the color to previous pictures. Really not too definitive but interesting to speculate about.

Thanks Pet . Sorry,I thougyt you were joking about the flame . I had gone to every site I could click on with ioc (news and press releases) ,and could not find a picture for March 3rd of a flame.....only a 2 page written announcement about A 5 and A6 . When one of the g-kids come over ,I will get them to show me how to see that picture (or where I can go to see it ). Best to you.

[Stavros]

There's one more thing missing from the PR that's been in every one of their public statements for quite some time.

NO MENTION MADE OF THE POSSIBILITY TO DRILL A-7 IF THE JV PARTNERS AGREE TO DO SO.

Does the absence of that recurring statement mean it's off the table, and certification will commence by May when A-5 and A-6 test results are wrapped and in the can? Perhaps Movieguy knows?

The pic is on IOC's home page Sageo

[Tusker]

Pet - Thanks for your fine analysis of the report . I too noticed they had switched to drill depth.....maybe you are right with "just to keep us guessing".

         True,they did not give us the exact location of the dolomite . You very astutely pointed out (page 17 of the 2012 pdf  showing the Antelope logs), that the dolomite is not always in the very top of the reservoir. I would like to believe,as you say is possible, that we may drill thru more dolomite as we go down the hole.

         As I dream tonight, I hope to see a much darker orange in your "imaginary flame" .." border="0" class="smilie" src="http://shareholdersunite.com/mybb/images/smilies/biggrin.gif" />...

Sageo- It is not my imaginary flame. Look at the picture shown on IOC home page for today's press release and compare the color to previous pictures. Really not too definitive but interesting to speculate about.

Thanks Pet . Sorry,I thougyt you were joking about the flame . I had gone to every site I could click on with ioc (news and press releases) ,and could not find a picture for March 3rd of a flame.....only a 2 page written announcement about A 5 and A6 . When one of the g-kids come over ,I will get them to show me how to see that picture (or where I can go to see it ). Best to you.

Try the Home page of InterOil's Web Site.  It is there... top left corner.  A Very close look shows shows the orange lignt (slower) spectrum of the heavier hydrocoarbons in a combustion process.

" border="0" class="smilie" src="images/smilies/cool.gif" />

[sageo]

Stavros and Tusker - Thanks gentlemen for your help .....(and for not asking me when my next eye-exam is scheduled ! ) I clicked on the flame and saw what Pet was referring to about the lighter color in the flame's center. As he mentioned,The deeper we go,we generally will find more condensates and that should influence and bring about (my sought after) darker orange color ...(smile).

[Kaliboo]

Pet - As aways,thanks very much for the March 1 post above. (great education you are providing us ! ) I thought we should be at least 100 ft into the reservoir antd it now looks like about 203 ft . ( close to 40 ft of dolomite as of today's report) .....hope at least one of those cores was in a fractured limestone area with good porosity. Looking forward to when you post your next "educating lesson".

Antelope-5-  There is a bit of a discrepancy between the data reported today as compared to the data reported on the first test http://tinyurl.com/q2lzmbq page 17. On the first test they say they produced 60 MMCFD through two 48/64” chokes. Now on this latest test they say they produced 57 MMCFD through a (one?) 48/64” choke. One or the other is incorrect.

The good news is, of course, that the new data has confirmed the connectivity between Antelope-5 and Antelope-1.

They are still evaluating the pressure buildup data to “quantify nearby reservoir properties”. I do not know what this means unless they are trying to prove the distance to the nearest fault. I assume that would be the western fault. As I have stated before I do not think they can learn much from a near instantaneous 2 psi pressure buildup but I wish them luck. I do not know what more they can learn about the permeability since we already know it is unbelievably high as proven by the 2 psi drawdown for 60 MMCFD.

We await the additional data of the reservoir pressure loss for the amount of gas produced which is what they would use to try to estimate the gas in place in the reservoir.

Antelope-6

I will try to tell you what we know and what we don’t know.  IOC has been using sub sea depths in all of their previous reports but today they switched to drill depth, just to keep us guessing.

They have previously reported that we topped the reservoir at -2,076 meters sub sea or about 76 meters lower than they had it mapped. The top of the pay would be at 2,262 meters drill depth. Today’s report says they cut four cores across the interval from 2,268 to 2,330 meters drill depth. They do not indicate if all of the interval was cored or part of it was drilled without coring but the depth of the hole is currently 2,330 meters drill depth (-2,144 meters sub sea). They say a 9 5/8” liner was set at the top of the zone (2,262 meters drill depth). So we have open hole from 2,262 meters drill depth to 2,330 meters drill depth or 68 meters (223 feet) . They tell us “Preliminary interpretation shows approximately 12 meters of dolomite is present in the drilled section.”  What we do not know is where the 12 meters of dolomite is in the 68 meters of drilled hole. Is it at the top of the zone, the middle of the zone or the bottom of the zone? It makes a big difference. The best possible scenario would be that they have high porosity limestone from 2,262 meters to 2,250 meters and then 12 meters of dolomite at the bottom of the hole. That would mean they were still drilling in dolomite when they decided to log and test. At Antelope-3 we had high porosity limestone above the dolomite section and the dolomite section was in about four different segments with limestone between the sections of dolomite. See the logs at http://tinyurl.com/l2j4c2w  page 17. So no matter where the dolomite section is in the drilled interval it is still possible that we will have more dolomite when they drill the rest of the hole. The bottom of the hole is presently at 2,230 meters drill depth or -2,144 meters sub sea. We know the gas/water contact is somewhere between -2,214 and -2,228 meters sub sea. IOC has been using -2,214 but Hession has said data from Antelope-4 and Antelope-5 indicate the gas/water contact may be lower than they had been using. The -2,228 meters sub sea number was from the GLJ report and I think it is the most likely depth for the gas/water contact. So using -2,228 meters sub sea we have another 84 meters (276 feet) to drill before reaching the gas/water contact. I think some of that formation yet to be drilled could be dolomite.

Now let’s look at the test data. On the surface it does not look too great, 13 MMCFD on a 40/64” choke. What we do not know here is whether or not they have a bottom hole choke in the DST tools, what the tubing (drill pipe) size is and whether or not we have formation damage caused by drilling fluids. If the dolomite is as good as previous wells 12 meters (39 feet)  of dolomite should produce more that 13 MMCFD on a 40/64” choke. They did not give us the flowing tubing pressure at the surface but I would guess it to be about 1,200 psi. So we have a lot of pressure loss for some reason...bottom hole choke, small tubulars and/or formation damage. As you know the reservoir pressure is about 3,500 psi. If we have formation damage they will determine that by analyzing  the bottom hole pressure build up data after they pull the DST tools and gauge. Formation damage in a high porosity limestone or dolomite can be corrected with hydrochloric acid.

I am looking forward to hearing about the final log and flow test information, if they do further testing.

Nice job Pet, as usual, on all your diligence and thorough analysis.  Here's some thoughts.  All comments welcome.

Well 5:  The release said this: "Preliminary analysis has confirmed the excellent reservoir quality and connectivity seen in the initial Antelope-5 production test conducted in mid-2015. The forward plan is to undertake further analysis to quantify nearby reservoir properties."

it's not surprising, but is disappointing that the "forward plan" is so vague.  I presume the meter is running on a lot of men and equipment waiting on further orders.  After drilling, logging, sampling and production testing, what else do they need to quantify nearby reservoir properties?  I'm guessing they may obtain rotary sidewalls from some key points of interest??  If so, then they may be already done.  Can't recall their statements but what else would they do on this well unless they screwed up something (e.g., corrupted data) and are considering what has to be repeated???  I have not heard of any plans to sidetrack, but that might be a remote possibility to obtain more rock samples further from the current location to better characterize the properties.  

Well 6: I suspect IOC is merely cutting and pasting TOTs report which relies on measured depth as the convention.  IOC doesn't want to create compound errors in TOT's report by translating it.  This keeps all accountability for erroneous statements on TOTs back.  My guess.  If the dolomite was at the bottom of the hole, then I think they would have continued drilling to have a larger section before testing.  I suspect that they likely drilled a long section of nonproductive rock below this dolomite section and concluded they may be out of the reservoir.  I.e., there may be nothing below. The flow test perhaps was conducted to see if this well was in a small, isolated reservoir OR whether this was connected to the main reservoir.  If an isolated box, then further drilling would be less likely to bear fruit.  But of course if connected, then they probably should continue to see if more reservoir rock is deeper.  The long buildup after the flow test is likely indicative of very tight rock.  If they are in a small separate reservoir, then the buildup would confirm that sooner.  The flow rate was certainly low.

Kaliboo