Current Implied Value of CVR

[davidhmtk]

As of 1:39 pm EST June 2nd I will keep this updated hourly !

OSH share    AUD     6.69

Exchange rate = .7225

OSH in USD =   $4.83

8.05 OSH shares = $38.91

IOC price = $42.03

Implied value of CVR = $3.12

( so assumes 6.72 TCF Gross )

[trans]

As of 12:39 pm EST June 2nd I will keep this updated hourly !

OSH share    AUD     6.69

Exchange rate = .7227

OSH in USD =   $4.83

8.05 OSH shares = $38.92

IOC price = $42.22

Implied value of CVR = $3.30

I follow trading very closely, have for many years. The ioc stock,imo ,is being held down for a good while here, while this deal was cooking.  It is still bein held down , by my best guess our markemaker or others.   This makes it basically impossible to property evaluate what the real perception of the value  of the CVR really is..  From all fronts, including the ws contingent, this deal is being worked constantly to the buyers benefit and has been since March 10 trading imo.   fwiw

( so assumes 6.75 TCF Gross )

[freddiekingman]

Thanks Trans..
CRoocks all over since a long time..
Trading for months probably had nothing or little to do with falling oil price but more with Hession&Bod and the Zebra preparing this shit for months..just my opinion..this stock has been crashed and held down for months...more than 14 million shorts left the building...silently..lol...

I still wonder what those here think that shouted murder when someone here only whispered that this board and hession were doing nothing-absolutely nothing-to create shareholdervalue?!

And still some here think this deal is ok???
Pathetic.

[wapitidropiti]

Thanks Trans.. CRoocks all over since a long time.. Trading for months probably had nothing or little to do with falling oil price but more with Hession&Bod and the Zebra preparing this shit for months..just my opinion..this stock has been crashed and held down for months...more than 14 million shorts left the building...silently..lol... I still wonder what those here think that shouted murder when someone here only whispered that this board and hession were doing nothing-absolutely nothing-to create shareholdervalue?! And still some here think this deal is ok??? Pathetic.

Hi Fred   This was and still is a huge find. Arun size. Big money has played and manipulated our baby for years. I laugh at the chartists who continually try to forecast our PPS. You can't forecast criminal behavior. Now to find that a fox is in the henhouse "pinkie" is worrisome but not surprising. I'll lose money before I pay the pink shirt.

[davidhmtk]

As of 9am EST June 3rd

OSH share    AUD     6.67

Exchange rate = .7315

OSH in USD =   $4.88

8.05 OSH shares = $39.28

IOC price = $42.05

Implied value of CVR = $2.77

( so assumes 6.66 TCF Gross )

[Thylacine-2]

Thanks Trans.. CRoocks all over since a long time.. Trading for months probably had nothing or little to do with falling oil price but more with Hession&Bod and the Zebra preparing this shit for months..just my opinion..this stock has been crashed and held down for months...more than 14 million shorts left the building...silently..lol... I still wonder what those here think that shouted murder when someone here only whispered that this board and hession were doing nothing-absolutely nothing-to create shareholdervalue?! And still some here think this deal is ok??? Pathetic.

Hi Fred   This was and still is a huge find. Arun size. Big money has played and manipulated our baby for years. I laugh at the chartists who continually try to forecast our PPS. You can't forecast criminal behavior. Now to find that a fox is in the henhouse "pinkie" is worrisome but not surprising. I'll lose money before I pay the pink shirt.

  Wapiti, it appears that your willingness to lose money before you pay the pink shirt reflects the current mood of the board.  The situation with IOC has become very personal with many shareholders.  Back in the day, 50 to 60 years ago, I played a LOT of poker.  Even had aspirations to be a pro.  I loved to see players at the table who took things personally.  I didn't.  And I don't now.  I am definitely not willing to lose money before I pay the pink shirt.

The offer looks fair to me.  That's on the poor-fair-good-excellent scale, not on the moral scale, where "fair" has an altogether different meaning.  I believe thinking in terms of that scale, the moral scale, doesn't contribute to objective evaluation and good decisions.

[Libtardius Maximus]

Thanks Trans.. CRoocks all over since a long time.. Trading for months probably had nothing or little to do with falling oil price but more with Hession&Bod and the Zebra preparing this shit for months..just my opinion..this stock has been crashed and held down for months...more than 14 million shorts left the building...silently..lol... I still wonder what those here think that shouted murder when someone here only whispered that this board and hession were doing nothing-absolutely nothing-to create shareholdervalue?! And still some here think this deal is ok??? Pathetic.

Hi Fred   This was and still is a huge find. Arun size. Big money has played and manipulated our baby for years. I laugh at the chartists who continually try to forecast our PPS. You can't forecast criminal behavior. Now to find that a fox is in the henhouse "pinkie" is worrisome but not surprising. I'll lose money before I pay the pink shirt.

  Wapiti, it appears that your willingness to lose money before you pay the pink shirt reflects the current mood of the board.  The situation with IOC has become very personal with many shareholders.  Back in the day, 50 to 60 years ago, I played a LOT of poker.  Even had aspirations to be a pro.  I loved to see players at the table who took things personally.  I didn't.  And I don't now.  I am definitely not willing to lose money before I pay the pink shirt.

The offer looks fair to me.  That's on the poor-fair-good-excellent scale, not on the moral scale, where "fair" has an altogether different meaning.  I believe thinking in terms of that scale, the moral scale, doesn't contribute to objective evaluation and good decisions.

Thy,

You raise good points about the scaling but this is personal. And why? Because me, like many here have been provided information straight from Hession that simply was not true. So yes, it's personal. Hession should be fed his words one at a time for the past 2.5 years until he has eaten them all at the AGM. I hope he shows up hungry but I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't show up at all. In the end will it matter? Probably not given the machinery that is behind this deal.

Retail shareholders are like the jackass in a hailstorm. Sometimes you just have to sit there and take it.

[davidhmtk]

As of 12:30 pm EST June 3rd, buying a share of IOC at current price will give you almost all your money back in 50 days ( except $2.33) and leave you with a CVR likely worth $18-$30 in a year, and as a bonus there is some chance that the offer is improved.

OSH share    AUD     6.69

Exchange rate = .7338

OSH in USD =   $4.89

8.05 OSH shares = $39.40

IOC price = $41.73

Cost of your CVR = $2.33

( so assumes 6.59 TCF Gross )

[steve3752]

As of 12:30 pm EST June 3rd, buying a share of IOC at current price will give you almost all your money back in 50 days ( except $2.33) and leave you with a CVR worth $18-$30 in a year, and as a bonus there is some chance that the offer is improved.

OSH share    AUD     6.69

Exchange rate = .7338

OSH in USD =   $4.89

8.05 OSH shares = $39.40

IOC price = $41.73

Cost of your CVR = $2.33

( so assumes 6.59 TCF Gross )

I think you are leaving the word could from your statement that the cvr is worth $18-$30 in a year.   What if the certification is 6.2TCF.  That is zero CVR.  You make the CVR sound guaranteed when it is not.  Am I missing something?

[davidhmtk]

As of 12:30 pm EST June 3rd, buying a share of IOC at current price will give you almost all your money back in 50 days ( except $2.33) and leave you with a CVR likely worth $18-$30 in a year, and as a bonus there is some chance that the offer is improved.

OSH share    AUD     6.69

Exchange rate = .7338

OSH in USD =   $4.89

8.05 OSH shares = $39.40

IOC price = $41.73

Cost of your CVR = $2.33

( so assumes 6.59 TCF Gross )

I think you are leaving the word could from your statement that the cvr is worth $18-$30 in a year.   What if the certification is 6.2TCF.  That is zero CVR.  You make the CVR sound guaranteed when it is not.  Am I missing something?

You are correct, it is my evaluation. I have edited.