Where is IOC Technically?

[tarulestheday]

Hello Uberlongs.

First of all, many thanks to STP for allowing me to post here.

I thought I would take a very objective look at the IOC technicals. Part of me finds this somewhat irrelevant as news trumps technicals 99% of the time and we all know IOC is more than ripe for news. However, the overall market does affect IOC in the very short term.

First the market:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p68278475985

The S&P just pulled back to the 150 day and is below the 10 and the 20 day - BEARISH

Negative crossovers in both the MACD and stochastics - BEARISH

CMF money flow - BULLISH

Slightly different chart view:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p46116814219

RSI heading down to 50 - BEARISH

Parabolic SAR still on BUY signal - BULLISH

Summary - S&P is working off the overbought status but is still in an overall uptrend - BULLISH

Taking a look at IOC:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IOC&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p84416056616

IOC still trading above the 10, 20, and 150 day - BULLISH

Negative crossovers in both the MACD and stochastics - BEARISH

CMF money flow turning back up from the options MM takedown last week- BULLISH

Slightly different chart view:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IOC&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p69476968266

RSI flat at 61 - NEUTRAL- BULLISH

Parabolic SAR still on BUY signal - BULLISH

8/21 Day EMA crossovers still on a BUY signal (my GOTO favorite trading indicator) - BULLISH

Summary - IOC is working off the overbought status but is still in an overall uptrend (similar to the S&P) - BULLISH

Maybe Mr. On Balance Volume (Trans) will jump in here and comment but looks to me like OBV is turning up after a minor pullback last week.

[admin]

You're more than welcome here, Tarules. And thanks for that very comprehensive view. Not the market makers at OE, not the escalating eurozone crisis, the slowdown in China or lower energy prices seem to be able to make much of a dent, at least so far. I feel like we're in a whole different universe, where IOC trading is concerned. But I'm not really known for my technical analysis acumen

[jft310]

This is solid information. Thanks for sharing

[trans]

Hello Uberlongs.

First of all, many thanks to STP for allowing me to post here.

I thought I would take a very objective look at the IOC technicals. Part of me finds this somewhat irrelevant as news trumps technicals 99% of the time and we all know IOC is more than ripe for news. However, the overall market does affect IOC in the very short term.

First the market:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p68278475985

The S&P just pulled back to the 150 day and is below the 10 and the 20 day - BEARISH

Negative crossovers in both the MACD and stochastics - BEARISH

CMF money flow - BULLISH

Slightly different chart view:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p46116814219

RSI heading down to 50 - BEARISH

Parabolic SAR still on BUY signal - BULLISH

Summary - S&P is working off the overbought status but is still in an overall uptrend - BULLISH

Taking a look at IOC:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IOC&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p84416056616

IOC still trading above the 10, 20, and 150 day - BULLISH

Negative crossovers in both the MACD and stochastics - BEARISH

CMF money flow turning back up from the options MM takedown last week- BULLISH

Slightly different chart view:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IOC&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p69476968266

RSI flat at 61 - NEUTRAL- BULLISH

Parabolic SAR still on BUY signal - BULLISH

8/21 Day EMA crossovers still on a BUY signal (my GOTO favorite trading indicator) - BULLISH

Summary - IOC is working off the overbought status but is still in an overall uptrend (similar to the S&P) - BULLISH

Maybe Mr. On Balance Volume (Trans) will jump in here and comment but looks to me like OBV is turning up after a minor pullback last week.

---

TA, On balance volume high for the year occurred 7/18 with a +29,361,000 reading. As of 7/23 close, On balance volume was +28,806,000, needing only +556,000 volume to make another on balance volume new high. This is about a day or so volume if closing higher, gives a new signal uptrend. Any good news here should finally take IOC to 80+ and start it on a new run. Downside appears very limited, imo, and this little consolidation should be short and sweet I believe. A move to new highs 80+ would trip lots of bullish T/A signals. A little more patience, but not much, imo

[ValueSleuth]

Chart-wise, there is a rising wedge forming. If the wedge formation continues, resolution should not be long in coming.

This type of formation usually results in one of two spectacular outcomes -- either a collapse, if the metrics of the wedge indicate weakness; or a surge, if the metrics of the wedge indicate strength.

In IOC's case, the metrics are clearly indicating strength -- higher highs on RSI, MACD and the like, along with all the other reported T/A factors.

An alternative to the wedge resolution would be further sideways consolidation in the low $80s prior to a breakout -- which should be just as spectacular as the aforementioned wedge breakout to the upside.

In any event, I have not changed my target of $130-$140 for the breakout above long-term resistance in the low to mid-$80s.

We have two announcements that could be game changing -- a massive find at T-2, and/or deals on SD, SM, operator, Gulf plant approval, etc. Take your pick as to which comes first.

VS

[Palm]

"there is a rising wedge forming. If the wedge formation continues, resolution should not be long in coming."

VS, on a purely juvenile level, just want to be sure you are talking TA here and not T&A. Thought maybe instead of looking at a stock chart you might be looking at your old Farah Fawcett poster. Hohoho. Bad, I know. For the uninitiated; this is the type of humor that STP encourages to keep it light. Hohohoho

[ValueSleuth]

"there is a rising wedge forming. If the wedge formation continues, resolution should not be long in coming." VS, on a purely juvenile level, just want to be sure you are talking TA here and not T&A. Thought maybe instead of looking at a stock chart you might be looking at your old Farah Fawcett poster. Hohoho. Bad, I know. For the uninitiated; this is the type of humor that STP encourages to keep it light. Hohohoho

Here's another one that might apply to IOC:  "The angle of dangle is inversely proportional to the heat of the meat."

At least I wasn't speaking of the "sagging pork formation."  LOL

VS

[Palm]

All good signs for IOC. TA, no matter how you color it all points in the right direction!

[tarulestheday]

Technical analysis is a lot like sex: Most think they perform a lot better at it then they really do.

[trans]

Chart-wise, there is a rising wedge forming. If the wedge formation continues, resolution should not be long in coming. This type of formation usually results in one of two spectacular outcomes -- either a collapse, if the metrics of the wedge indicate weakness; or a surge, if the metrics of the wedge indicate strength. In IOC's case, the metrics are clearly indicating strength -- higher highs on RSI, MACD and the like, along with all the other reported T/A factors. An alternative to the wedge resolution would be further sideways consolidation in the low $80s prior to a breakout -- which should be just as spectacular as the aforementioned wedge breakout to the upside. In any event, I have not changed my target of $130-$140 for the breakout above long-term resistance in the low to mid-$80s. We have two announcements that could be game changing -- a massive find at T-2, and/or deals on SD, SM, operator, Gulf plant approval, etc. Take your pick as to which comes first. VS

---

Two updates: first, IOC, second Overall market, all in mho.
IOC appears to be a hiccup from emerging up from its 2 year consolidation pattern, although it may linger around the seventies , low 80's a bit longer. However, that would strengthen it technically for a major breakout to the upside. I believe IOC is behaving similarly to the big breakout 2 years ago around 40-42. If so, a break above the old highs 82-84 would project to the 120-130 area, taking place in 3-4 months. OBV to make new yearly highs (closing 7/24) is only +107,000 volume to the upside (closing volume). In short, IOC may break to new OBV highs and linger a week or so, but this is a pretty good indicator that price follows volume (meaning OBV)

Now, I've been waiting on this for almost 40 years.....The most powerful tool in the Fed's arsenal fighting recession is Bank Reserve Requirements. The last two cuts in Bank Reserve Requirements was 11/13/74 and 1/20/75. All Reserve Requirement cuts have produced 20% or greater market rallies in the following 18 month periods. This tool amounts to an overnight immediate expansion of loanable funds in banks, and has no lag effect such as interest rate cuts do. I credit Norm Fosback's research many years ago and would highly recommend his book "Stock Market Logic" . Norm states categorically that a reduction in the reserve requirement on demand deposits for large city banks "is the single most bullish event in the world of stock price behavior." I believe a global dragging economically has a very good chance of seeing the Fed resort to this incredibly powerful stimulus tool. My bank loan model shows bank loans so far here are moving in a slight uptrend, even though the economy is sagging a bit here, as well as globally.
China uses this tool quite a bit in conducting their monetary policy, I like it because it works without the customary interest rate cut lag, which incidentally is quite lengthy in impacting the economy. As a result, I may be wrong, but believe China is in better shape to counter their slowdown than many investors think.
This time around, I would like to see bank reserve requirements cut by the Fed, and stipulations by the Fed, if the increased reserves were used for bank loans, not wall street speculation. I believe it would work very well, so don't be surprised if this Fed event unfolds ahead. I doubt , with 37 years of non use, virtually all of wall street aren't aware of this powerful Fed tool. So, when the Fed says they still have weapons left, I smile when the most powerful tool is mostly forgotten. Anyway, if you see this tool eventually used, be aware of its bullish significance.