Lynn's Email to Li'loilady ... TRANSLATION: The Deal Won't Happen

[katytrader]

If this situation with the OSH ADRs becomes an issue, yes I believe there will be a lot of selling pressure. The upward pressure from now to Deal Vote will be the valuation of the CVRs from any leaked OSH-IPI cert info, and rumblings of a sweetener or new bidder. The sweetener possiblity may be affected by how the AGM goes next week. Hold on to your hats. My focus now is to look at the behavior of the MF/Institutions holding 100's of thousands or millions of shares, to see if they think this ADR situation is a problem. I mean if Cap Re is okeedoke with the deal, they have to have thought about how they will unwind 40+ million shares of OSH at some point, right? Maybe they aren't restricted like individuals are? Hmmm....so many unanswered questions. Thanks IOC IR!!!

'Puppy, don't be frightened by some of the noisy dogs of war.  US brokers can trade "ordinaries" on foreign exchanges for  higher commissions than what is charged for trades on US exchanges.  If I recall correctly, Kaliboo told us a while back that Fidelity has a flat $80 charge for X shares, which presumably would be scaled for volume.  It is not necessary to trade in ADRs.

The funds trade around the world.  They know how to move their volumes without badly hurting their positions unless the fund itself is under duress.  But I would not assume that funds are poised to dump OSH shares.  If commodties have an upward move, the AUD should strengthen as would the several ASX indices of which OSH is a part, as would OSH itself.  I think I am correct in saying that we have yet to see the name of any fund holding IOC which would be forced to sell because its charter would not permit non-USD holdings.

The CVR is a different proposition because of the tax question for a US taxpayer.  I don't see how OSH can give any information about listing the CVR before the deal is done.  So we would have to wait, just as we have been waiting for a very long time for "monetizing assets", deal or no deal.  fwiw

katytrader

[weaselpuppy]

Thanks katyrader. I didn't mean to imply that Cap Re would be forced to sell off their 40+M shares of OSH if the deal goes, just that they will at some point, sooner or later, rotate out of the trade and have thought that through...hence what you said makes sense in that they have the ability to move the shares. I also agree that OSH would see upside from the broader market. It's just not perceived as the same upside of IOC when there was a path to monetizing the assets and seeing cashflow from the plant. C'est la vie...

That was my point from an earlier post....how much price appreciation is enough for people to sell based on their personal situations or for MF/INST holders goals based on a realization this Field of Dreams that is/was IOC the wildcatter rocket to the moon is now an elevator possibly reaching it's highest floor? Even if there is a sweetener offered becaue the groundswell is rumbly enough to get Botten's undies in a twist, how much bigger will that be? I'd love Stavros' numbers, but even a small bump IMO is enough to quiet a lot of unruly retail holders or any as yet to be revealed MF/INST that think they can push for a better deal. For long holders OSH should carry increased value due to the resource, but for those looking to reposition after seeing the change in trajectory of IOC as a big winner, how much is enough to take your stack and go home? A whole lot closer to the current price plus a CVR valuation showing 7-8T than some re-concantenated sum of the parts valuation that needs to cross a lot of hurdles to even have a chance at existing. IMO.

[jft310]

Katy / A little color Schwab charges about $80 to trade on the Austalian . Based on shares in transaction , They get good executions for us .
I agree with your comments .