Brexit

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Under a little-known WTO clause, the U.K. and Brussels would be allowed a “reasonable length of time” after Brexit to agree a free-trade deal before trade law would force both sides to impose the same tariffs on each other as they do on everybody else. Such a transitional deal would allay fears about an impending cliff edge in March 2019, when Britain is set to crash out of the single market and face the EU’s steep external tariffs on goods ranging from meat to cars. The provision, set out in Article 24 of the WTO’s General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, can only be challenged by other countries if the temporary continuation of existing tariffs is not applied to all trade. This makes a special deal for finance or the car industry less likely as part of any interim arrangement. While a “zero-for-zero” interim tariff deal may be legally feasible according to the rule-book, it is also highly unlikely that the remaining EU 27 countries would agree to such an arrangement without significant concessions from the U.K. government on budget contributions and free movement of people. There is also no obligation under WTO rules for either side to agree to tariffs of zero.

Britain’s Brexit Plan B – POLITICO

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First, as its name suggests, the bill will repeal the European Communities Act, the British law that took the UK into the European Community in 1973 and which established the supremacy of EU law over domestic legislation. Second, it will transpose the entire body of EU legislation into domestic law. The UK Parliament currently has no power to repeal EU legislation. It is hard to calculate exactly what proportion of UK laws come from the EU - estimates range from 13% to 60%. Transposing EU legislation into domestic law will not be a simple "copy and paste" job. The House of Commons library says it could be "one of the largest legislative projects ever undertaken in the UK".

Reality Check: Does the Great Repeal Bill repeal EU laws? - BBC News

Many EU laws, for example on the environment, refer to EU agencies that the UK will no longer be part of when it leaves the Union. The Great Repeal Bill will have to find new ways of making those rules part of UK law. Any rules that cannot be transferred will have to be repealed. The government has controversial plans to give ministers the power to make changes to some laws without full Parliamentary scrutiny, which could add further complications. They are known as Henry VIII clauses, after the Statute of Proclamations 1539, which gave the king power to legislate by proclamation. Some opposition politicians are concerned this could mean an executive power grab - the government changing laws without proper scrutiny by MPs. The government says these powers will only be used to deal with EU-related gaps in the law, not to make substantive policy changes.

Reality Check: Does the Great Repeal Bill repeal EU laws? - BBC News

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Norway is part of the EU's single market, but it is not part of the customs union. So it sets its own tariffs on goods imported from outside the single market. But Norwegian goods (with exceptions for farm produce and fish) are imported tariff-free into the EU. That means that Norwegian exporters have to contend with what are called "rules of origin", to demonstrate that their goods qualify as having originated in Norway and are therefore eligible for tariff-free entry to EU countries.

Free trade area, single market, customs union - what's the difference? - BBC News

The 85-page form is a Home Office bureaucrat’s wet dream, as anyone can stumble while filling in the mind-numbing details asked for and thus be rejected. In Berlin, the head of the Brexit department in the foreign ministry told me: “We have been asking London to supply a list of names of the EU citizens resident in the UK and they cannot.” In Warsaw, Poland’s Europe Minister says that the question of social security rights and payments is central and that is not an EU but a national competence. In Spain, there are 300,000 British expats officially registered as living there but the British embassy reckon there are probably up to one million Brits with a home or business or who have retired to Spain. Who will list all of these and will the NHS keep sending £250m a year to Andalusia and Valencia to pay for the medical care of British wrinklies?

If you'd read the small print of the EU negotiating document, you'd be worried for Britain too | The Independent

Finally, Madrid has got what it has wanted since joining the Union 30 years ago. “No agreement between the EU and the United Kingdom may apply to the territory of Gibraltar without the agreement between the Kingdom of Spain and the United Kingdom,” the document says

If you'd read the small print of the EU negotiating document, you'd be worried for Britain too | The Independent

Mrs May says she wants the UK to reach a new customs union deal with the EU. A customs union is where countries agree not to impose tariffs on each others' goods and have a common tariff on goods coming in from elsewhere. The UK is currently part of the EU customs union but that stops the UK being able to do its own trade deals with other countries.

Brexit: All you need to know about the UK leaving the EU - BBC News

Gallo pointed to four market stresses ahead for the U.K. The first will come from the depreciation of the pound, he said, although he noted that while it could fall further, that's largely played out already. The pound has dropped from as high as $1.50 just before the vote to exit the European Union to as low as $1.1979. On Tuesday, it was trading around $1.2560. That will spur the second market stress, higher inflation, he said. "That hurts people. It hurts in particular the middle-and-low wage families that are exactly the ones that voted Brexit," he said. "Populism is bad for the same people it's advocated for. These are people that have not seen their wages go up in the last decade and now they're going to see the prices of food and other goods going up." He noted that the U.K. imports around 50 percent of its food and 70 percent of its fruits and vegetables, adding that higher prices will force people to squeeze consumption. Getty Images An American tourist stands near the Houses of Parliament the day after the majority of the British public voted to leave the European Union on June 25, 2016 in London, England. The third stress will come from the U.K. government needing to increase spending in the wake of Brexit, which will likely increase the cost of funding, he said. The fourth market stress could come from a drop in property prices, Gallo said.

Brexit will bring four types of market distress: Portfolio manager

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No deal means reverting to trade on World Trade Organisation terms. As Open Britain, another think-tank, notes, this implies not just all of the EU’s non-tariff barriers, but tariffs of 10% on cars, 15% on food and 36% on dairy products. It would end Britain’s access to the EU’s trade deals with 53 other countries. Last year the Treasury said this option would reduce GDP by 7.5% after 15 years.

A race against time: The two-year countdown to Brexit has begun | The Economist

On the EU side there is another calculation: it will be easier to ensure unity among the 27 member states on the terms of the divorce, rather than on trade, when different national interests could come into play. Preserving unity is a fundamental concern and Mr Tusk insisted that the EU "will act as one". By insisting that the principles of the divorce bill be settled first, the leaders of the 27 are also stopping Mrs May using payments as a bargaining chip over the future trading relationship.

UK faces tough divorce from the EU - BBC News

For the EU there are four priorities in the talks: settling the divorce bill which some in Brussels have estimated at €60bn (£50bn), establishing the future status of EU citizens living in the UK, keeping open Northern Ireland's borders and agreeing which laws companies will operate under post-Brexit.

UK faces tough divorce from the EU - BBC News

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As Prime Minister Theresa May begins two years of negotiations on the U.K.’s exit from the European Union, 4 million people face uncertainty about their fate: the more than 3 million EU nationals who live in Britain and the almost 1 million British citizens who live in other EU countries. With the free movement of citizens—a basic tenet of EU law—curtailed or restricted, theoretically they could see bank accounts closed, employment terminated or rental agreements revoked—not to mention deportation.

Brexit Could Disrupt Millions of Expats’ Lives

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The future of an estimated 100,000 jobs has been plunged into doubt after a close political ally of the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, and president of the European commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, warned that a prized sector in the City of London must relocate to EU soil after Brexit. Manfred Weber, the leader of the centre-right European people’s party – the largest political group in the European parliament, to which both the German chancellor and the commission president belong – told reporters that euro-denominated clearing could no longer be undertaken in the City when the UK leaves the EU.

Up to 100,000 UK jobs at risk as Merkel and Juncker ally warns on euro clearing | Politics | The Guardian

With the clock now ticking on two years of Brexit negotiations, Poland looks more vulnerable to a painful divorce between the U.K. and European Union than anywhere else. Poland is the biggest net recipient of EU aid and also the continent’s largest provider of cross-border labor. And it’s in the arrivals halls at provincial airports like this former military base 160 kilometers (99 miles) north of Warsaw where those two things meet.

Brexit’s Biggest Loser May Actually Be Poland - Bloomberg

Some would decry the stuff below as another round of meddling by those bureaucrats from Brussels adding red tape and unessesary rules and regulations that restrict wealth creation, but it's simply creating an EU wide level playing field which boost economies of scale, competition, specialization, you know, the stuff that gets economies growing.

Europe needs to push ahead with plans to harmonize capital markets and regulation or risk losing out to American competitors, Deutsche Bank AG’s Chief Executive Officer John Cryan said Thursday. “It’s important from a global perspective that Europe build a counterpoint to the American capital markets machine,” Cryan said at a conference hosted by the German Banks Association in Berlin. If Europe can create a more unified financial market “we put ourselves on a better footing to be able to compete with the American machine,” Cryan said.

Cryan Urges EU Harmonization to Keep Up With `American Machine' - Bloomberg

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Germany's "Mittelstand" of small and medium-sized firms (SMEs) could lose billions of euros if the UK is shut out of the single market, an industry representative has warned. The boss of the BVMW, which represents more than 270,000 SMEs, told the BBC "a hard Brexit would harm both sides". Mario Ohoven added that negotiations should be "guided by economic sense and not by political ideologues". The remarks diverge from the position taken by other leading German voices.

German Mittelstand wants 'soft Brexit' - BBC News

Now that the prime minister has triggered article 50, the biggest economic risk facing the UK would be leaving the European Union with no deal at all. Some members of the cabinet have said we should prepare for such an eventuality. I am concerned, as are MPs from across the political divide, that this extreme form of Brexit is being talked about with increasing fervour by those who favour a fundamental rupture with Europe.

Crashing out of the EU without a deal would be a disaster | Nicky Morgan | Opinion | The Guardian

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The EU is set to inflict a double humiliation on Theresa May, stripping Britain of its European agencies within weeks, while formally rejecting the prime minister’s calls for early trade talks. The Observer has learned that EU diplomats agreed their uncompromising position at a crunch meeting on Tuesday, held to set out the union’s strategy in the talks due to start next month.

A beauty contest between member states who want the European banking and medicine agencies, currently located in London, will begin within two weeks, with selection criteria to be unveiled by the president of the European council, Donald Tusk. The European Banking Authority and the European Medicines Agency employ about 1,000 people, many of them British, and provide a hub for businesses in the UK. It is understood that the EU’s chief negotiator hopes the agencies will know their new locations by June, although the process may take longer.

Britain set to lose EU ‘crown jewels’ of banking and medicine agencies | Politics | The Guardian

Estimates suggest leaving the single market will cost the UK economy up to £200bn over 15 years, while it will leave anything up to a Brexit black hole in the public finances of £100bn. Our health and social care system is in the grip of a major crisis, with operations being cancelled and people being left on trollies. We are seeing education budgets being slashed, teachers being laid off, schools going to a four day week and essential repairs not being made. If you think the cuts have already been bad, then in the words of Ronald Regan, “you ain’t seen nothin’ yet.” And this is all due to a decision Theresa May didn’t need to take – to go for a hard Brexit.

Jeremy Corbyn has allowed Theresa May's Government to ruin the futures of our children with her latest Brexit win | The Independent

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A woman living in the UK who has been married to a British man for 27 years has been forcibly removed from the country. Irene Clennell, who made headlines when she was placed in immigration detention, was deported to Singapore on Sunday. Clennell first arrived in London in 1988 and married John, a British man, two years later. They settled in County Durham and had two children together. She now has one grandchild. Her sister-in-law Angela confirmed Clennell had been deported. She said she had been subject to “insensitive and unfair government rules” and that Irene’s husband, her brother, was seriously ill. Advertisement She told the Guardian: “It’s outrageous what has happened today. I’m appalled by it especially doing it on a Sunday so you can’t contact anyone to try and stop it happening. “I made numerous phone calls to immigration solicitors and everywhere was closed. I feel sick about the whole situation.” She said her sister-in-law only had £12 in her pocket but, since the news broke, a fellow Singaporean has made contact with the family and offered her a place to stay for two weeks, something which Clennell, who is still on the flight, is not yet aware of. A Go Fund Me page to raise money for her legal fees passed £8,000 after the news broke that she had been deported

Woman deported from UK despite being married to Briton for 27 years | UK news | The Guardian

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The single thunderous lesson from the EU referendum is that new technology trumps arcane democratic safeguards. Artificial intelligence, algorithms and invisible money sources can overwhelm democratic rules. But a much more troubling narrative is emerging. The use of algorithms and artificial intelligence was probably a significant but invisible element in the campaigns. There is no evidence that Cambridge Analytica, the data analytics firm linked to the Leave.EU campaign, used botnets or any other illegal activity – it seeks to use the web to manipulate public opinion through legal means. Legal though such methods are, the sinister nature of this manipulation requires robust regulation.

What Brexit should have taught us about voter manipulation | Paul Flynn | Opinion | The Guardian