What to expect on 2019 guidance?

[Mrebs]

Stpioc from what Stephen told me they have cut that down to 30-120 day implementation time. 90-180 days has been improved. That is why I went with 60 on my tracker... worst case I am off by 30 days or so for the average.

[stpioc]

Stpioc from what Stephen told me they have cut that down to 30-120 day implementation time. 90-180 days has been improved. That is why I went with 60 on my tracker... worst case I am off by 30 days or so for the average.

Well, that's great to hear, but they are also in the midst of absorbing two acquisitions, not usually the time of peak organizational efficiency.

[admin]

By the way, people can still vote (after joining), we're curious about the expectations.

We will also have a new Seeking Alpha article out in the next few days discussing these items in some detail.

[admin]

And here is that new article, fresh from the press..

[admin]

Might as well keep in mind that management guided 2018 revenue growth during the Q4 2017CC at 50%+, while so far they have exceeded that by a wide margin (Q3 2018 growth was 128%).

So it very much looks like management guides conservatively...

[stpioc]

A few observations:

• The most important thing on the line this afternoon is the growth trajectory of the company.
• The closer 2019 revenue guidance is to $150M, the more explosive that growth trajectory is as that will reverberate through to 2020 and subsequent revenue estimates.
• It will also show the magnitude of undervaluation, at $150M revenue the company sells for less than 3x 2019 sales, at $100M it sells for 4x 2019 sales, still fairly cheap.
• Much of trajectory is already clear from the explosion in backlog ($147M at the end of 2017, nearly $700 at the end of Feb 2019).
• So the 2019 revenue guidance is actually more about the speed of conversion from backlog to revenues, do all these Artilium and iPass engineers speed up that process?
• Backlog itself is also interesting and we'll get that in neat monthly installments. It tells us something about the increased value of the platform after the acquisitions, the opportunities for cross selling, and to what extent the company can sell into iPass legacy enterprise segment, for instance.

In short, let the short-term price gyrations not distract from the longer-term developments. We have good visibility on the latter, due to the explosive rise in backlog. The shares will continue to go up on that.

[admin]

Agreed that the growth trajectory is the most important here and you're right, actually we do know quite a bit about the growth trajectory from the development of backlog. These are real figures, management can very well be conservative with the revenue guidance, which at this stage is actually more about the speed of conversion (of backlog).

[stpioc]

Couldn't listen to the CC, but there are people suggesting that the $105M-$115M 2019 guidance doesn't include iPass, that can't be right, I think. Why would they exclude iPass?

Also heard that backlog now stands at $800M, that's a tremendous jump in two weeks, can somone confirm this? Thanks.

[stpioc]

Well, that difference between $105M-$115M guidance and $150M seems to be sorted, due to difference in assumption on backlog conversion (80% versus 100%).

The additional backlog does come from iPass, we're now at $800M, apparently.