Glutton for punishment FSLR

[Gator]

Only because I am a glutton for punishment I am buying FSLR at $17.85. The earnings will be out tonight after the close, how bad could they be? Stock is trading less than half of book, they have been profitable. My hope is that all the bad news is priced in.

[Petrovale]

Gator, good luck. I hear 59 cents a share on revenue of $688 million would just about do the job. But the solar outlook for 2012 is still pretty grim. I see several Chinese companies hitting 2006 / 7 /8 lows. But at least these companies are heavily subsidized by their government and / or receive low-cost financing from local banks. Each quarter they write off inventory, so you know where prices are going.

[Gator]

Thanks for the info. I hope it will get an earnings pop like ATNI and not a drop like GMCR or WTW.

[Putncalls]

Gator: Not to be rude: Just a message from someone who understands solid state physics. Solar power will never be economical. Once the GVT subsides go away the business model falls apart. It will always be that way.

[admin]

Put, with all respect, but solar by many accounts IS already economical in a few places (those with high electricity tariffs and plenty of sunshine, like Hawai). You might have noticed that panel prices crashed 50% last year and innovation is continuing unabated:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/464981-t...innovation

Having said that, First Solar, I dunno, Gator. They use a different technology (CdTe thin film) which has less efficient conversion efficiency which used to be made up by price advantage. But the latter has been eroded by the sharp falls in the raw material price of competitive technology (crystalline silicon), I'm not at all sure they can keep up with that.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/485821-s...the-bottom

[Gator]

All it took was three month (and IOC going up so much so I could keep my head in the sand) to make money on FSLR. Earnings were great, they raised estimates, and the stock finally broke above the 50 DMA. It looks like FSLR is the best house in a crappy neighborhood.

[admin]

Have to say Gator, congrats to you. I was a little worried that the cost reductions in crystalline silicon competition were outpacing the thin film producers (quite a few of these have folded as a result) but I think their move and operate large scale solar projects themselves and perhaps also the tariffs were helpful.

They certainly have the best balance sheet in the business.

[Ass0ciatedPress]

First Solar continues to go up Gator. Good job!

[admin]

Bit of an overreaction, I read on Bloomberg, Gator, although the whole sector is bleeding still, until the oversupply and related price falls go away

[Gator]

I did sell a little too early at $23. Missed out on the $26 and missed todays $18.35, but I did just buy some short term in the money calls for a bounce off the $18.50