Posts: 12,025
Threads: 1,809
Joined: Apr 2008
Reputation:
227
08-22-2012, 01:47 AM
(This post was last modified: 08-22-2012, 01:49 AM by admin.)
Why Apple Will Benefit From an Android Tablet Influx
This fall, we will see an influx of low-priced, 7-inch Android tablets, but too many options may steer confused consumers toward the rumored iPad mini. Tim Bajarin By Tim Bajarin August 12, 2012 12:01am EST Comments inShare1 Best Android Tablets While perusing the tech ads in the Sunday paper, I found some no-name brand, 7-inch tablet for $129 and another for $179.
Both were fully functioning Android tablets that were capable of running most apps. Recently, Barnes & Noble also reduced the price of its Nook tablet from $199 to $179. Now this may have been done to clear inventory in anticipation of a new model, but this move could also signal a trend in cheaper 7-inch models trying to compete with Google's hot Nexus 7, which sells for $199. In fact, I think that $179 will be the next sweet spot for 7-inch tablet pricing in 2013.
Shortly after, I got an email from a Taiwanese ODM that for some reason thought I was interested in buying tablets in volume. It shared its manufacturing prowess with me and said that it could create a 7-inch tablet for under $100 if I was interested. Actually, this was the third such email I have received, but all have come from different companies. On my nightstand, there are eight 7-inch tablets and two 10-inch models that I have been testing.
All are Android models that reside alongside my iPad, my most used tablet overall. As I look at this pile of tablets, it becomes clearer to me that tablets are the next PC. We will be getting a glut of them from big-name brands and no-name brands alike starting this fall. The good news for Google is that most of them are Android-based tablets. The bad news is that most run older versions of Android and Google's inconsistency across all of these models just adds to consumer confusion.
This confusion might be good news for Apple. In the recent Apple versus Samsung trial, Samsung was forced to present documents to the court that showed that over a two-year period, it had only sold 1.4 million tablets. In that same period, Apple sold more than 80 million. Apple owns 70 percent of the market share in tablets and Samsung has barely 9 percent, according to iSuppli. There are widespread rumors that Apple is about to release a 7.85-inch iPad mini to compete with all of these 7-inch Android tablets.
This is still speculation, but my company is seeing hard research that suggests potential Android tablet consumers would think hard about upgrading to an iPad mini, even if it costs $100 more, because Apple is a consistent company with excellent service. View Slideshow See all (10) slides Google Nexus 7 Amazon Kindle Fire Asus Eee Pad Transformer Prime TF201 Asus Transformer Pad TF300 More The other dynamic in play that bodes well for Apple is that when consumers get confused by the dozens of Android tablets, they look for a product that is simpler to understand and represents a more stable platform, like the iPad.
Interestingly, all of my colleagues in the tech research business think that if Apple rolls out a smaller iPad under $300, it would be a monster hit and have a negative impact on 7-inch Android tablets. My Taiwan contacts also echo the same sentiments. An even worse problem for Android tablet manufacturers is that they would be forced to drop prices to compete and the margins would shrink even further.
That could really shake things up at the low end. In fact, the only companies that could keep pushing out 7-inch tablets at $149 and above would be Amazon and Google, which can tie future sales and advertisements to an amortized model. The only bright spot in this is that consumers will have the option of buying very low-cost tablets that will introduce them to the tablet lifestyle. It would not surprise me, though, if the consumer confusion caused by the Android tablet glut results in Apple becoming the big winner in small tablets.
Posts: 8,568
Threads: 1,342
Joined: Dec 2011
Reputation:
380
Apple TV rebuffed by the cable guys 09/06 03:46 PM
CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- There's a reason cable-company stocks haven't faltered on Thursday's news that talks with Apple TV about a video service offering this year have broken down.
Cable companies -- and sometimes their investors -- realize that there's no reason to make any rash decisions, when they still have firm control over how information and entertainment gets to the average modern consumer: through a broadband Internet connection.
Talks with Apple TV hit a snag over how the user interface would work, Bloomberg News reported, citing unnamed sources described as familiar with the situation. Among other difficulties, the two sides could not agree on how a new Apple TV set-top box would get into consumers' homes -- via direct sale or though a lease deal with cable operators, the news agency said.
"The cable companies need to maintain ownership of the subscriber," said David Joyce, an analyst at Miller, Tabak + Co., in an interview Thursday with MarketWatch. "They're the ones who customers deal with when there's an issue. So they obviously would be hesitant to put anything between them and those customers."
In recent years, the pay-television industry has worked hard to maintain its ecosystem, in which cable and satellite companies pay fees to programmers for the right to distribute TV shows and movies, those costs are passed on to consumers, and the enterprise is augmented by advertising revenues.
Various video services have emerged that could theoretically replace the role cable and satellite companies play in many homes, including offerings from Netflix Inc. (NFLX:$56.60,00$1.64,002.98%) and the Hulu consortium , , but, while cable companies are aware that people increasingly want to see the video entertainment they like anytime, anywhere, they don't want to rush into deals they'll regret later.
That's why they're careful about providing access to live event programming, which is seen as one of the most compelling reasons for most people to keep subscribing to cable. Marquee events like the Super Bowl, the World Series or the Final Four phase of the NCAA basketball tournament have to be viewed live to maximize their impact. For non-sports fans, the Academy Awards and other events are equally compelling.
According to the Bloomberg report, Apple (AAPL:$675.63,00$5.40,000.81%) is trying to work out a way to give Apple TV users access to live programming through their cable subscriptions, but the details have proven to be stubborn obstacles.
"I don't think [delaying a deal with Apple (AAPL:$675.63,00$5.40,000.81%) ] is a risk for cable because they control the dominant data pipe in the vast majority of the U.S.," said Jeff Wlodarczak, an analyst at Pivotal Research Group, in an email. "[And] as consumer bandwidth needs continue to explode, it is going to gravitate toward the fastest platform."
Even as video-subscriber growth has flattened for cable, broadband has been strong. In the second quarter of 2012, cable operators added about 30,000 broadband customers, more than doubling the figure of a year ago, according to research firm Leichtman Research Group. Comcast Corp. (CMCSA:$34.595,0$0.885,02.63%) , the largest U.S. cable company, showed the most net additions, with 156,000.
The top cable broadband providers -- among them Comcast (CMCSA:$34.595,0$0.885,02.63%) , Time Warner Cable Inc. (TWC:$90.65,00$1.28,001.43%) , privately held Cox Communications Inc., Charter Communications (CHTR:$79.02,00$0.86,001.10%) and Cablevision Systems Corp. (CVC:$15.42,00$0.31,002.05%) , have about 57% of the high-speed-Internet market, Leichtman said, with 45.66 million customers.
As has been pointed out many times in recent years, the obstacles to a truly robust Apple TV offering that would represent a real alternative to traditional cable are staggering. Revenue-sharing arrangements must be hammered out, along with the exact mode of Internet Protocol delivery. And now that the industry is committed to the "TV Everywhere" concept, in which online video viewing is tied to a subscription to a pay-TV provider, any Apple TV product would need to fit into that paradigm, which would mean verifying who the user is so that access can't be shared ad infinitum and how many devices content can be viewed on by that person.
To be sure, consumers love Apple (AAPL:$675.63,00$5.40,000.81%) products, with their sleek looks and smooth interfaces. Cable operators are said to be impressed with the interface Apple (AAPL:$675.63,00$5.40,000.81%) has come up with for Apple TV.
Wlodarczak pointed out that the industry's attempts to come up with its own interfaces have been expensive -- and often end up falling far short of expectations.
If Apple TV can't get off the ground, and options like Google Inc.'s (GOOG:$699.0798,$18.3598,2.70%) new video service run into insurmountable roadblocks, piracy looms as an option to users who are truly fed up and are willing to break the law.
Still, cable would rather take its time than see its profit margins dissipate the way they did for the music industry in the wake of the iTunes revolution.
"Apple (AAPL:$675.63,00$5.40,000.81%) ," Wlodarczak said, "would have to give up the farm to get a deal done, which is probably unlikely
Posts: 12,025
Threads: 1,809
Joined: Apr 2008
Reputation:
227
Seven years later and Apple still hasn't quite cracked the smart TV equation
The perennial rumors that Apple, Inc. (AAPL) is preparing to launch a "smart" LCD TV or more advanced set-top box have been dealt a blow by Bloomberg, which cites multiple sources as saying the project has stalled on Apple's inability to cut a deal with content providers.
I. Building a Better Box
The news service reports that Apple engineers have been working since 2005 to make a super set-top box. Inspired by TiVo, Inc.'s (TIVO) eponymous recording hardware and other smaller players like Roku, Apple aimed to beat perennial rivals Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) and Google Inc. (GOOG) to expand the role of the digital TV.
Today Apple is selling, according to a (calendar) Q1 2012 earnings call, 1.4 million units of its AppleTV. That may sound okay, but compared to the distribution deals TiVo owns, and sales of other Apple products it's pretty abysmal.
The problem is that Apple's current product -- in its third generation -- lacks many features, while actually regressing in some ways on others. Early models had hard drives (40/160 GB first gen.), but Apple ditched the mildly useful feature for streaming only -- a cut it justified by a price drop from $229 to $99 USD.
AppleTV is smaller and sleeker, but now lacks a hard-drive. [Image Source: Engadget]
The device also lacks a built-in browser or useful apps other than select service portals from a handful of partners like Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) and Google Inc.'s (GOOG) YouTube. And those services are also offered via TiVos and Rokus.
But Apple's vision for its better box began and remains with a much more ambitious dream than the cheap but currently model. Apple envisioned an advanced device that could double as a game console, receive live content (over the internet), from television networks (think Hulu), record shows via a built in hard drive, play pictures/songs, surf the web, and watch internet videos. More recently it even planned to use its iPhone smartphone and iPad tablet as controllers, taking advantage of the devices' built-in Bluetooth capabilities.
II. Content Providers -- a Tall Hurdle to Jump Over
To make this dream device Apple has to come together with television content producers to allow streaming shows and recording. While TiVo can essentially do what it wants, the TV content creators have a degree of leverage over Apple. As the largest digital distributor of music and TV show episodes on a purchase basis, Apple must avoid the wrath of its business partners in those ventures.
But its never-ending thirst for profits has met its match in the similar profit motives of the big media content producers, yielding a stalemate. Eddy Cue, iTunes SVP, has been unable to break the deadlock.
In July Tim Cook commented, "We continue to pull the string to see where it takes us, and we are not one to keep around projects that we don’t believe in and so there are a lot of people here that are believers in Apple TV."
Comcast Corp. (CMCSA), according to Bloomberg, rejected an invitation into Apple's would-be TV "walled garden" back in 2007 when it realized the extent of control Apple wanted over its content. Apple received similar feedback from CBS Corp. (CBS). And Viacom, Inc. (VIA) is also lukewarm on the prospect.
Walter Price, an investor in RCM Capital, a major Apple stakeholder which owns $1.9B USD shares says that in a recent meeting Apple executives said the roadblock was content providers being set in their traditional business models. The content providers are reportedly afraid of putting Apple in the driver's seat. This is not surprising; many content makers long ago grew frustrated at Apple's rigid iTunes pricing rule, and today regret helping the media market rise to its current dominant position.
If Apple can't cut a deal with content providers, it's next best bet is to try to approach the middle man -- the networks that distribute them. According to Bloomberg, its strongest hope lies with AT&T, Inc. (T). AT&T is a fresh face on the broadband scene and is looking to rapidly expand its Uverse cable network to challenge Comcast and Time Warner Cable's offerings. Plus AT&T already enjoyed a successful union with Apple, during the period of iPhone exclusivity.
But as much hope as there is for a deal with AT&T, Bloomberg is bearish on that deal arriving this year.
Posts: 8,568
Threads: 1,342
Joined: Dec 2011
Reputation:
380
Back out Apples cash and the stock is still dirt cheap. The I phone 5 looks like a winner,then we have a new I Pad and then Apple TV someday. I own Apple like IOC for awhile now and have been quite glad I have owned them both.I would add to both in a serious market correction.The mortgage REIT's have performed well just spectacular. Thank you Mr Bernake.
Posts: 12,025
Threads: 1,809
Joined: Apr 2008
Reputation:
227
Yes, I agree, although I also see a few problems for Apple. The smartphone and tablet markets are maturing, which normally brings margins down, and the question is whether without Jobs they have another big innovation in them.
Posts: 8,568
Threads: 1,342
Joined: Dec 2011
Reputation:
380
Steve Jobs genius is that he left 8 years of innovations for Apple mapped out for future products. The new products as you suggest is where the margins are highest and Apple has 8 of new high margin products all mapped out. Stocks cheap buy on dip.
Posts: 8,568
Threads: 1,342
Joined: Dec 2011
Reputation:
380
Apple pushes back shipping date for iPhone 5
by Julia Ryan, USA TODAYUpdated 6d 23h ago Comments Reprints & PermissionsGLENN CHAPMAN AFP/Getty Images
Apple CEO Tim Cook presents the new iPhone 5 at an event in San Francisco on Sept. 12.
EnlargeClose
GLENN CHAPMAN AFP/Getty Images
Apple CEO Tim Cook presents the new iPhone 5 at an event in San Francisco on Sept. 12.
Sponsored LinksApple has already pushed back shipping estimates for iPhone 5 pre-orders, just hours after the phone was added to Apple's online store.
The iPhone page on Apple's online store promises a release date of Sept. 21 in retail stores, but the pre-order page for the phone says all three models--the 16GB, the 32GB and the 64GB--will be shipped in two weeks if ordered online today.
Apple had previously announced the iPhone 5 would be available online and in retail stores on Sept. 21, and customers could pre-order the phone online starting on Sept. 14. When the iPhone 5 page went live yesterday in the online store, the page noted that iPhones pre-ordered online would ship by Sept. 21, The Next Web reports. That notice has been replaced by another notice, "available to ship in two weeks," in the U.S., France, the U.K., Germany and Australia.
TechCrunch reports that Apple changed its shipping estimates for the iPhone 5 just one hour after it became available for pre-order online, compared with the 22 hours that it took for the iPhone 4S to sell out in pre-order and the 20 hours that it took for the iPhone 4 to sell out in pre-order.
The iPhone is also available for pre-order through its U.S. phone carriers, AT&T, Verizon and Sprint. All three carriers report an expected delivery date of Sept. 21 for all models of
Posts: 12,025
Threads: 1,809
Joined: Apr 2008
Reputation:
227
The iPhone 5's overlooked killer feature
By JP Mangalindan, Writer September 26, 2012: 6:37 AM ET
Most of the jaw-wagging about the new iPhone misses the point: Apple has made its iconic gadget radically faster in one single move.
The new iPhone 5. Best smartphone ever?
FORTUNE – By now, many are aware of that new record: 5 million iPhone 5s during its first week. For its part, Apple (AAPL) has done a good job marketing features like its meticulously machined thinner body and an even trimmer "Lightning" charging cord. But does it warrant all that early praise? We spent five days with it to parse through the hoopla and find out for ourselves.
Some may call the iPhone 5's new design the latest example of evolution. That's because upon first -- and even second -- glance, it could be easily mistaken for the iPhone 4 or 4S. The differences are in the details. It's a sliver of a device that at 3.95 ounces, stands nearly 4.9 inches tall, 2.3 inches wide and .3 inches deep. That translates to being 18% thinner and 20% lighter when you hold it, but it's the lightness you'll notice immediately. On the back, much of that glass was swapped out for aluminum; two thin glass panes remain at the top and bottom.
The largest design difference is of course, that screen. It's four inches instead of 3.5, the first for an iPhone, but certainly not the first for Android users already used to their devices swelling up to 4.5 -- or in some hybrid-type devices -- 5 inches. Viewed that way, the iPhone feels like it's playing catch-up. But new owners and those upgrading will welcome the increased screen real estate. They'll also appreciate the quality of the screen with better contrast.
MORE: A timeline of computing power
Behind the screen, there's a new custom-made A6 processor, 1 GB of RAM, an improved 1.3 megapixel front-facing camera, and a tweaked 8 megapixel shooter that takes better dim shots. Apple was keen to point out at the unveiling the new A6 chip offers twice the speed of the previous model. For the most part, that speed boost is noticeable. Many apps, including the running app Nike+ (NKE), now load almost instantly, and switching between those apps flies. Twice as fast? We're not so sure about that. But it's extremely brisk.
Chalk a good chunk of those speed gains up to the integration of 4G Long Term Evolution (LTE) technology in the AT&T (T), Verizon (VZ), and Sprint Nextel (S) models. Our review unit was a white 64GB Verizon version, which yielded impressive results in San Francisco on its own and as a mobile hotspot. On average, Fortune.com, for instance, loaded in 4 seconds on Verizon LTE here in the city's financial district; on AT&T 3G, it took 13 seconds. Obviously, results will vary from carrier to carrier and location to location.
Because Verizon launched its 4G network earliest, its nationwide coverage remains the most thorough, with 371 markets, compared to AT&T's 65 and Sprint's 18 or so. (For a helpful coverage map, reference here.) Call quality was very good on our unit -- voices were sharper and sounded fuller-sounding than previous iPhones -- and we didn't experience dropped calls.
This speed, in my opinion, is the iPhone 5's killer feature. Much has been written about the incremental seeming nature of this generation's improvements. And perhaps even more has been written about the quibbles (read on for some of my own). But most of the jaw-wagging about the new iPhone misses the point: Apple has made its iconic gadget radically faster in one single move.
MORE: Four reasons Apple's iPhone 5 sales were anything but soft
The real question is, how does battery life fare? Apple says to expect up to 8 hours on 3G or 4G and up to 10 hours with WiFi usage. The average user -- one who checks email occasionally, listens to a few songs, and say, uses Maps for a few minutes through the day -- can expect to all-day battery life. Those, like me, who are basically wedded to their phones, will still want to charge up later on or invest in an extended battery pack when available.
We won't dive too deeply into iOS 6, since it's a software update also available for the iPhone 4S and iPhone 4, though it's worth noting the latter won't officially offer features like the 3-D "Flyover" feature in Apple Maps. But at the very least, it's worth diving into Apple Maps itself. With iOS, Apple has basically swapped out Google's mapping efforts for the company's own. The switch has been met with criticism over maps of areas -- mostly abroad -- that lack detail or are simply inaccurate.
In our test runs, we found Apple Maps and its 3-D cityscapes quite pretty, but actually using the app proved somewhat problematic. Like Siri when it debuted last year, Maps this year doesn't feel complete. When trying to walk to a nearby building, we were twice led in the opposite direction before the kinks seemed to work themselves out. At times, the phone had difficulty pinpointing my location, sometimes placing me three or four blocks away. Still, in other scenarios, Apple Maps performed fine, offering multiple routes to our destination. But the results were hit or miss, and it's clear Apple still has a lot of work to do here.
A solid shot taken of downtown San Francisco with iOS6's new Panorama mode.
A more minor issue concerned Panorama, a new software feature that essentially allows a user to take extremely wide shots. In practice, it worked largely as advertised (see above) yielding good results. Infrequently, we noticed some distortion around moving objects. And if you don't "pan" the phone around to capture an image slowly enough, you risk some image tearing in corners.
MORE: Facebook vs. Google: It's on! (Again)
The use of a new Lightning connector cable may be an annoyance or a non-event. Want to use your old cords to charge the iPhone? You'll pay $30 for an Apple adapter, or gamble with a cheaper third-party version. For me, it was a non-issue until last night, when I left the Lightning cable at work and realized my old ones wouldn't cut it.
That's not say the iPhone 5 isn't in many ways a major improvement over iPhones past. It is, after all, faster and leaner. But you'll want to triple-check those directions just in case.
Posts: 12,025
Threads: 1,809
Joined: Apr 2008
Reputation:
227
So long robot, I'm ditching Android
Dear Google, that's it! I've had enough! Enough of the random lockups and reboots. Enough of the buggy browser and convoluted multitasking. Enough of Android!
Google, I've given you a fair shot. I drank the Kool-Aid. I joined the Android Army. And I wore my green robot tattoo thingy with pride. However, I could never shake the feeling that I've been running with the wrong crowd.
As a certified Windows NT bigot from long before it was cool to be one, I find myself constantly comparing the Android OS experience to my years of working with Cutler's masterpiece. And no matter how I slice it, Google, your OS keeps coming up short. From multitasking performance (big Wi-Fi file transfers slow my Iconia Tab to a crawl) to robustness (a hang or reboot a day keeps the productivity at bay) to simple usability (I positively hate that stupid recent apps list mechanism), I keep pining for something more, well, NT-like.
So I've decided to take a step back from our cozy post-PC relationship and re-evaluate my goals. For example, while I prize your app selection and (nearly) full-featured productivity tools, I miss the carefree attitude I developed when working with an OS that rarely, if ever, crashes. And though I enjoy tinkering with custom Android ROMs/kernels and overclocking my dual-core, Tegra 2-based Iconia A200 to the point where it spanks many quad-core devices on popular benchmarks, the uncertainty of when and how your nascent tablet OS might fold on me next has taken all of the joy out of that raw performance.
If anything, your OS feels more akin to Windows 98 (or that cute-yet-crazy gymnast I dated in high school): Light, flexible and highly unstable. As the guy who literally wrote the book on "Migrating to Windows NT" (Copyright 1993, Brady Books -- look it up), it is a sensation I simply cannot abide. Even with a stock ROM/kernel, I find Android 4.0.3 to be quite unreliable. Heck, the first non-beta version of your own flagship web browser, Google Chrome, locks my tab up tight whenever I try to log into Disqus. And then there are the endless reboot loops stemming from an auto-update to the APEX Launcher I received just this morning. Talk about performance anxiety! This is just crazy!
Of course, if I'm going to throw in the towel on our relationship, Google, the next big question becomes: Where do I go next? Should I tough it out for a few weeks and see if Surface finally grows out of its schizophrenic beginnings? Sure, it's Windows NT under the covers, but that Metro UI is an abomination, and I can't stand using the desktop interface on a tablet (big fingers and small buttons don't mix).
Should I try Apple? And become one of the mindless "sheeple" hanging out at the local Starbucks, trying to look all "hip" and "deep?" Puhleeezzz!
First Love
No, the only option that makes sense is to go back to my first love, the platform that launched my post-PC adventure: QNX, in the form of my trusty RIM Playbook. When my Iconia Tab was down with another mysterious failure, it was my Playbook that provided the virtual shoulder to cry on while allowing me to get back online and search for ways to fix my broken relationship. And every time I fired up that black beauty, I was reminded of how smoothly QNX multitasks. From file transfers to media playback to simply browsing the web without worrying about system stability or which sites would overload the web browser, my Playbook has remained my rock in the storm.
The whole experience reminds me of all the things I liked about Windows NT, only with a touch UI that actually harnesses the OS' underlying power in a sensible way. So when I finally decided to make the switch "back to black," it felt like I was coming home. And it turns out that my timing couldn't have been better, as rumor has it that RIM will be releasing version 2.1 of its enterprise-caliber tablet OS this week during the company's Blackberry JAM event in San Francisco.
With improved Android application support (including a better multitasking implementation than Android itself -- take that, Google!), and class-leading web browser standards support, Playbook OS 2.1 is poised to inject new life -- and a degree of class -- into this reliable, if un-glamorous, workhorse device.
I, for one, am looking forward to the release. All of my favorite Android apps already run flawlessly under RIM's runtime implementation, and the beta version of Playbook OS 2.1 has been more stable than any Android version I've tested. Assuming RIM maintains its track record for creating highly robust, secure mobile computing platforms, I can see this latest iteration meeting or exceeding my expectations.
So it's over, Google. We had some good times. But I need more. I need stability in my post-PC relationship, and RIM's QNX has got it in spades.
Catch Randall C. Kennedy's analysis of tech trends every Tuesday and Friday here at BetaNews.
Posts: 12,025
Threads: 1,809
Joined: Apr 2008
Reputation:
227
Windows 8 contains the Windows Store, making it the first edition of Windows to sport such an app store. Platforms are increasingly reliant on strong app ecosystems, as serviced through their app stores, to entertain, amuse, and monetize their users.
No smartphone platform can survive with a weak app pool, and exclusion from top-tier developer interest can harm a mobile line’s ability to grow. Windows Phone suffers from these problems, filling its market share rise with ballast, even as its user experience is strong.
Windows 8, a version of Windows that will be mobile as none of its predecessors, given its RT edition and tablet focus, will lean on its third-party app situation. The fewer apps that Windows 8 launches with in the Windows Store, and the lower their quality, will cause it to suffer. In short, Windows 8 needs to launch with a strong app portfolio, out of the gate, or the operating system could stumble as consumers take it for a spin, but are underwhelmed with what sort of applications they can quickly download and use.
Users of iOS and Android devices won’t have much patience for a limited stocking of applications, given their experience with fully-stocked app stores; when it comes to third-party application diversity, those platforms are the top of the heap.
Now, quite obviously, Windows has traditionally been the defacto standard for app diversity given its massive market share, and open development environment. However, as Microsoft moves its operating system to a formal app store environment, it must play by those rules. Thus, despite there being endless desktop apps that Windows 8 can run, if the Windows Store itself isn’t packed as full as the larder of a hobbit, all of Windows will feel a bit empty.
This will harm the operating system’s ability to build tablet market share for Microsoft.
Where do we stand?
The news of late has been that the Windows Store has passed the 2,000 app mark. Naturally, not all of those apps are available in every region, so what you see in the Windows Store should you fire it up – and you do have a Windows 8 machine handy, right? If not, catch up – is but a slice of the larger store’s offerings.
Now, we’ve recently broached the 2,000 app milestone, which this graph from WinAppUpdate puts into context:
That bump you see following the 11th of September is the days following Microsoft’s opening of the Windows Store to essentially anyone; the jump then is the pent-up demand in regards to developers waiting to submit their apps, once the doors opened.
And, as you can see, development activity has certainly risen following the opening of submissions on a daily basis. Breaking down just what sort of apps are in the Store, we turn to Mary Jo Foley of ZDNet, who summarized that data set moments ago:
As of yesterday, September 24, there were 2,188 Windows Store applications available internationally, with 1,593 of those available in the U.S., according to Directions on Microsoft Vice President of Research Wes Miller. There are approximately 150 apps that are available for x86/x64 machines and not ARM, Miller said. In other words, there are about 150 apps in the Windows Store currently that do not work on both x86/x64 (Windows 8) and ARM (Windows RT).
It is roughly one month until Windows 8 hits general availability.
Is that good?
TNW reached out to Microsoft for comment on the 2,000 app figure. The company declined to confirm it, instead providing TNW with the following statement:
As the number of apps in the Store continues to grow each day, we cannot say specifically how many apps are available at any given time. We anticipate the availability of apps to grow significantly now that we have opened up the commerce platform with RTM, as well as once Windows 8 is generally available.
There is a key element to that statement, that Microsoft expects the total number of applications to spike in two moments in time: after the opening of the app platform, and when Windows 8 hits the streets.
The first of those is already passed, and generated on the order of 500 apps, a figure that represents, as we noted, accumulated pent-up developer interest.
Thus, for Windows 8 to break the five-figure app threshold – in a world in which it’s six figures or bust – by launch, the operating system must undergo a massive burst of developer release before its debut.
However, looking at the above chart, the Windows Store is growing by under 100 apps per day. Thus, at its current rate, given the time until Windows 8 becomes generally available, we can expect around 5,000 apps to populate its virtual shelves. Remember, however, that not all will be available in all places. Thus, under 5,000 apps for everyone.
Assuming another spike on launch day, say, of four times the boost that Windows 8 enjoyed when app submissions were opened, and we have a tally of around 7,000. That, in my view, is disappointing.
What gives?
I’m confused by how slack those numbers are. Nearly two months ago, Microsoft detailed the massive response to the various Windows 8 pre-release releases:
We continue to be sincerely humbled by the breadth of participation in our pre-release testing. The previews of Windows 8 (Developer, Consumer, Release) have been the most widely and deeply used test releases of any product we have ever done. Over 16 million PCs actively participated in these programs, including approximately 7 million on the Release Preview that started 8 weeks ago. The depth and breadth of testing validate the readiness of Windows 8 for the market.
That combined with the fact that Microsoft has not been quiet in boosting its platform, stating the number of devices it expects to run it in a year’s time and the like, and we have just over 2,000 apps; it’s almost nonsensical.
However, it cannot be ignored. I know for a fact that Microsoft is working with various businesses to ensure that a wide number of ‘tier one’ apps will be present at launch, but that can’t quite salvage the fact that current developer activity is underwhelming.
Even if you don’t like Windows 8, and that’s a fine view to have, even if I don’t share it, simply ‘because Windows’ it is going to land on hundreds of millions of machines in the coming years. That’s a massive developer opportunity, especially given how barren things are at the moment.
Perhaps developers are lying in wait, hoping to see how early sales of the operating system go, before diving in. Or it could be that developers are simply content with writing for the platforms that they already do. I’m not sure.
I don’t think that it is a stretch, however, to say that 2,000 apps is a disappointment, and one that Microsoft will need to rectify if Windows 8 is to stand up to something akin to the full height that it expects of it.
|
