Best Guess of Valuation by 2020?

[DeepBlueMarine]

So I did this drill several years ago but can't find any of my old scratch pads and calculations regarding the ideal "in-production" market cap valuation for Nautilus based solely on producing SOL 1. I tried looking up the number from the old geological reports for grades of each element expected to be harvested but can't even find good answers for that now. Also, I don't recall the expected "up-time" for production or the projected Tn/hr or Tn/day of ore to be drug up from the sea floor. I think I have a decent handle on operating cost minus any unknown debt that may be taken on but I'm sure there are several things I'm not considering here as well.

Long story short, can someone point me to a recently revised calcualtion (in this forum or elsewhere) that can give a decent breakdown of valuation based on current outstanding shares, expected SOL 1 REVs, operating cost, and some conservative earnings/EBITDA multiplier?

I recall last time I did this that I came up with about $7 pps but that was several years ago before a lot of things have changed including a lot of dilution. I would anticipate this number to be somewhere around half of this now or slightly less $2.75-$3.50 maybe per share.

Any help would be greatly appreciated.

Cheers

[smac]

So I did this drill several years ago but can't find any of my old scratch pads and calculations regarding the ideal "in-production" market cap valuation for Nautilus based solely on producing SOL 1. I tried looking up the number from the old geological reports for grades of each element expected to be harvested but can't even find good answers for that now. Also, I don't recall the expected "up-time" for production or the projected Tn/hr or Tn/day of ore to be drug up from the sea floor. I think I have a decent handle on operating cost minus any unknown debt that may be taken on but I'm sure there are several things I'm not considering here as well.

Long story short, can someone point me to a recently revised calcualtion (in this forum or elsewhere) that can give a decent breakdown of valuation based on current outstanding shares, expected SOL 1 REVs, operating cost, and some conservative earnings/EBITDA multiplier?

I recall last time I did this that I came up with about $7 pps but that was several years ago before a lot of things have changed including a lot of dilution. I would anticipate this number to be somewhere around half of this now or slightly less $2.75-$3.50 maybe per share.

Any help would be greatly appreciated.

Cheers

Too many unknowns to even venture a guess right now.  If and when financing and successful wet testing are announced, I might be willing to weigh in on this.  I still think the basic functioning of the SPT's needs to be tested at depth.

[GGGGG]

So I did this drill several years ago but can't find any of my old scratch pads and calculations regarding the ideal "in-production" market cap valuation for Nautilus based solely on producing SOL 1. I tried looking up the number from the old geological reports for grades of each element expected to be harvested but can't even find good answers for that now. Also, I don't recall the expected "up-time" for production or the projected Tn/hr or Tn/day of ore to be drug up from the sea floor. I think I have a decent handle on operating cost minus any unknown debt that may be taken on but I'm sure there are several things I'm not considering here as well.

Long story short, can someone point me to a recently revised calcualtion (in this forum or elsewhere) that can give a decent breakdown of valuation based on current outstanding shares, expected SOL 1 REVs, operating cost, and some conservative earnings/EBITDA multiplier?

I recall last time I did this that I came up with about $7 pps but that was several years ago before a lot of things have changed including a lot of dilution. I would anticipate this number to be somewhere around half of this now or slightly less $2.75-$3.50 maybe per share.

Any help would be greatly appreciated.

Cheers

"up-time" - Unknowable, it could be zero if the machines do not work individually or as a group.  At that point, Nautilus must make lease payments while waiting for the fix to be fabricated, tested and deployed.  Assuming there is a fix. Note: this is the consensus 'market' opinion behind the pennies per share stock price.

The investor presentation gives a speculative Copper Capex Intensity, which would put Nautilus in the same league as the most profitable terrestrial mines.  

http://www.nautilusminerals.com/irm/PDF/1918_0/AGMPresentationJune2017 ;

[DeepBlueMarine]

Yes, understand this is a tough calc at this point based on the amount of variables but at one point I at least had most of the projected numbers from one place or the other. I was speaking in 'ideal circumstances'. Obviously up-time is not 100% because there is scheduled periodic maintenance, movement of SPTs on the seafloor, and other scheduled events that will keep 'up-time' ideally somewhere around 75%.

Several years ago, and to this day still, one of my biggest concerns with the entire project is the lack of spares and redundancy. If something catistrophic occurs to any one of the SPTs, Ship, Riser and handling system, Subsea slurry pump, etc; we are talkig 12-18 months potentially of all-stop delays. If NUSMF can survive initial production and show that the concept works and start generating rev/profit, it will be exciting to see them be able to take out traditional loans and scale up with spares/redudant manchinery as they take on multiple fields at a time.

I hope the next 5-10 years are exciting as I think they have the potential to be. If this does occur, I think the valuation is a moot point anyway because all of us here will have made so much $$$ we won't care.