10-28-2012, 12:38 PM
JFT,
Do you have a copy of that MS report? I'd be interested in taking a look at what figures they were using. I'm not saying MS is wrong and not trying to bash IOC by any means with my next statement but an NAV of $236 without Triceratops seems insanely high. MS would have to be 1) using an IRR that is near single digits which I can assure you Oil companies are not going to be using in their takeover offers (should that happen) or in their bid offers 2) MS would also have to be assuming commodity prices that are dramatically higher than the prices IOC is using in their forecast from the Sept 30th presentation. With that being said I will say is that in the presentation from Sept 30th I think IOC is being conservative on their Oil, Condensate, and Nat Gas prices but I am also quite bullish in my outlook on the energy market. Even with my bullish outlook though I don't see how you could get to an NAV of $236 om E/A alone.
I do think though that IOC's overall NAV is close to $200 b/c as I mentioned above I think within several months we will have a resource value on T2 and an indication from PRE/IOC on where we are going with T2. Once these things occur our NAV is boosted to the $150 range. I also personally have assigned NAV's to some of IOC's other fields b/c from a long term investors aspect I believe many of these field will have resource values assigned within the next 2 years which is how I get to the $200 range.
Do you have a copy of that MS report? I'd be interested in taking a look at what figures they were using. I'm not saying MS is wrong and not trying to bash IOC by any means with my next statement but an NAV of $236 without Triceratops seems insanely high. MS would have to be 1) using an IRR that is near single digits which I can assure you Oil companies are not going to be using in their takeover offers (should that happen) or in their bid offers 2) MS would also have to be assuming commodity prices that are dramatically higher than the prices IOC is using in their forecast from the Sept 30th presentation. With that being said I will say is that in the presentation from Sept 30th I think IOC is being conservative on their Oil, Condensate, and Nat Gas prices but I am also quite bullish in my outlook on the energy market. Even with my bullish outlook though I don't see how you could get to an NAV of $236 om E/A alone.
I do think though that IOC's overall NAV is close to $200 b/c as I mentioned above I think within several months we will have a resource value on T2 and an indication from PRE/IOC on where we are going with T2. Once these things occur our NAV is boosted to the $150 range. I also personally have assigned NAV's to some of IOC's other fields b/c from a long term investors aspect I believe many of these field will have resource values assigned within the next 2 years which is how I get to the $200 range.