11-20-2012, 10:14 AM
Puts, I agree the market isn't agreeing right now but it is waiting to see if that is the result. The market isn't going to price in something that isn't there yet on this stock. That's what markets do. Today we have a conditional framework for a deal and the details are like the Wizard of Oz; behind the curtain. The big question of risk that IS being priced in is what do we hear between now and Nov 30? Is Nov 30 a deal deadline date or what the PR says; a report back to NEC on progress date? What % does the government REALLY want? What is the commercial rate they are willing to pay? How much of that comes up front? Etc etc etc.
My point was simply what I said. As a British Commonwealth country PNG has laws in place and ways in which they must act to continue getting support from Aus and others. You think this important? Look at the response and how PNG reacted when they tried to delay elections and Aus said get it done on time. PNG will give a fair price for its up to 27.5% additional share of EA. That's my point; not whether or not the market is pricing that in right now.
My point was simply what I said. As a British Commonwealth country PNG has laws in place and ways in which they must act to continue getting support from Aus and others. You think this important? Look at the response and how PNG reacted when they tried to delay elections and Aus said get it done on time. PNG will give a fair price for its up to 27.5% additional share of EA. That's my point; not whether or not the market is pricing that in right now.